Nothing is constant except change itself.

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
21

Hi All,

I‘m still a new to Sauls world and found the board in March 2021 and had a few good months until mid-November 2021. Since then I‘m way under water as most of us and I‘m learning a lot from you guys. Thanks for that!

So, coming back to Randy‘s point. I‘m not sure, if SAAS and Cloud stocks are really decelerating for the long term. I mean, most of the recent earning reports from our favorites were still very good to ok. Only a few showed serious signs of deceleration. Guidance was a little on the conservative side, ok. But the stock price movement over the last couple of days was just sentiment in my mind. The market got a little carried away from mid-June until last week. Now we are in a correction. I have no idea, what the market will do next, but I‘m sure, that as long as I‘m invested in the current companies, I will be fine in the future. The thesis for investing in the companies have not changed and there are no better companies to invest in as far as I can see.

I know macro is off-topic and exactly therefore, I‘m convinced that our companies will stabilize or even accelerate their growth again. Macro will eventually turn. Maybe next month, maybe next year or maybe in 2 years. But eventually it will as history has shown us. As long as the thesis in the companies is still valid and there are no better companies to invest in, I will invest in the current ones.

At the moment I‘m very lucky. I still have nearly 20 years time until my retirement and can invest monthly into my portfolio. For me, it‘s a chance to build some wealth and maybe even an opportunity to retire early in a couple of years. You never know.

Yes, it hurts to see my portfolio down 40% and even more from the highs in mid-November 21, but I try to be as resilient as I can be and try to focus on my long term goal, to retire by mid-2031.

As Saul teaches, follow the numbers and not the markets. Don‘t let’s get distracted by the noise of the markets and keep our investment thesis and long-term goals in mind!

I‘m not sure, if that helps as I‘m still a novice :-).
Best,
Nick

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22

Okay. Thanks everyone. That is probably enough. I don’t want to clog up the boards any more.

To summarize, I understand the board doesn’t buy long term. I understand the strategy is to buy the best available now. My question was to ask if everyone had noticed the changes and is it affecting their actions.

I guess Bear’s reaction is to hold the line on what he wants to see and therefore is much heavier into cash at the moment.

Saul’s apparent reaction is to hang onto companies with some “mixed” results, stay invested and keep looking for the best available.

My question was really whether others are paying attention to changes and does that affect what you own. This goes for economy changes like recession/end of Covid or macro changes, like SAAS is evolving away from new IPOs and moving to larger growth companies.

Those questions definitely have me thinking about what to do. It was easier when there were “perfect” companies to invest in. It seems different now.

But enough for now. If you want to reply separately, feel free but let’s end this as I think it is run it’s course.

Thanks (and if you didn’t like it, sorry! :slight_smile:

Randy

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23

Hi Randy
I’m a new here and I’m not good at English, but I try to let you know what I mean.
I think there are two strategies.

  1. Saul’s method is to try to buy the best at the moment
  2. Keep observation of your company and use second-level thinking

Many companies told us they found the economy will fall because their customer reduces consumption. From there we can know it is related to the economy no one can avoid. So we need to think about growth to slow is related to external (economic changes) or internal (industrial competition), if external we need to know and think about the company is the leader in their industry and waiting for the economic recovery.

“My question was really whether others are paying attention to changes and does that affect what you own.”

I use mixed method because I know the leader company will be back after economic recovery and also use Saul’s method.
By the way, I think we will back to MDB after the economic recovery

Chang

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24

Randy, this is gonna hurt. :slight_smile:

I think I get what you’re asking, but I don’t think you phrased your questions well, and if I do understand, several others are missing your point.

Yes, I see change coming. Right or wrong, I feel it all around me. I am branching out into other avenues, other investments and have been for months. I’m buying stodgy old companies to sit beside my shiny sports car IT fast-growers. GOOGL, AAPL, ENPH, SWAV, UNH for example. There are some decent (not great) prices out there, and I’m comfortable betting that they will continue to be very good performers in the near future. I’m also holding on to cash much longer than in the past. What’s the hurry? I’ve lost more digits than I ever thought possible in this market shuffle. Now I’m in no hurry to beat my record with more losses.

You’re right, that is not what Saul’s board is about. Meanwhile, we all have to do what we have to do for our economic freedom and well-being. But Saul’s sharp and he changes too whenever change is called for. Yep, I’ve seen it. :slight_smile: We just have to decide for ourselves when that time is near. Maybe it’s tomorrow. Maybe it’s 5 years away. I don’t know.

I think we caught rocket rides while they were fueling on the launching pad. How often does that happen? Are we grateful? Now some rockets are in space and maybe – just maybe – there’s more smoke than fire now. Or not. I don’t mean that it’s all over, either, or anything of the sort. But doubling or tripling your money in a month or two maybe isn’t realistic any longer. (Don’t tell the Reddit kids!)

Here’s the thing: I would be willing to bet that Saul and board regulars will be branching into other fields within the next 12 months. Why? Because I have been scouring the market and I see what appear to be a few lay-ups out there. Will they have a ZM-like trajectory? Not likely, not at that exponentially increasing pace. It just can’t be done. But what does? We rode the rocket, and it’s still flying. But it’s a whole lot easier to catch the ride going from 0 to 1000 mph than it is from 10,000 to 100,000 mph, and even if you do, the acceleration can’t be the same.

The ride isn’t over, but yes, change is in the air. I Or, I’m 100% wrong, in which case I will pay a hefty price. But I will be glad to cheer on the faithful. (I’m faithful, I just see a change coming that is bigger than … dare I say it? Subscription Revenue! The other day, I even saw a cave man doing a DCF analysis!

Maybe the next rocket will be medicine. Or green energy. Or a weapon that destroys weapons. Or maybe someone will invent a Hula Hoop. Who knows? But there will be one. More than one. Hey, things are changing but never fear … we’re watching!

Good luck everyone. Let’s get back to business and find that next rocket. Or even just a comfortable Cadillac if that’s the fastest thing we can find. And thanks for letting me hold on for the last 10 launches. Or 20. Or 30. I am grateful.

NEXT!

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