Nvda Article

fwiw…personally, blame Apple for your port today. However regardless of what we think of Nvdia or any of our Companies, short term, they will all be taken down unless results are extraordinary and even then, throw in a sour apple and in one week, it’s back to pre-report. Such are the times. Not being depressing, just stating facts. Have some dry powder.

oops sorry, here is the link.


Thanks for the link. At 6.7% of assets, and being down 35% from its highs, I want more NVDA. But I’m not willing to add before they announce. This stock has gone from one of my top 3 holdings to one of my bottom 3 holdings, an incredible swing in the wrong direction. At this point I’m willing to miss a post-earnings bump in order to avoid a post-earnings drop.

I posted the same article in NPI. Summarized some comments below. Author seems to make a valid case for gaming weakness. I suppose the bull thesis is Data will blow away this.

some comments from the article

Nvidia’s core market is that mid-priced product which drives most of their gaming revenues.
RTX not well reviewed in techradar and Digi trends “Benchmark PC Tech compared framerates and showed that it’s not worth upgrading to the 2070 if you have a 1080 Ti”

channel inventory in lowed end
“They obviously were planning to clear the channel of inventory and also probably expected some customers to wait for Q4 for the mid-ranged 2070 product.
But the risk is now that the 2070 may not be the jump they need in Q4.”

also talks about low seq. growth

gaming slow down - EA, TTWO, ATVI

Thinks data center will grow but gaming slow down to hurt near term in which case stock can still drop.

Gaming is the company’s largest revenue contributor (over 50% of the business) and bigger in Q3 and Q4. So it’s what’s important right now.
that is the non bull case in brief.
But how is gaming actually doing ? Do competitors unexceptional results mean gaming hardware is not growing fast , or just that Nvidia is taking market share? Or some combination of these? We won’t know for sure until earnings report . Absent any bogus FUD or overall bear market I tend to believe that more often than not the market prices stocks close to reality. Or at least the general perception of reality.
Longer term NVDA seems like a good bet. OTOH, the longer term is composed of a bunch of shorter term quarters and it seems likely that things like AI and advanced autonomous driving are more potential than actuality. The present fear in the general tech market means ER will be looked at more pessimistically than they were last year. So I am adding only tiny amounts of stock to my portfolio, and keeping a decent cash reserve.

Th mungofitch buy signal I posted about earlier usually represents a series of “lows”. Odds are the lows will be tested once or twice.

Both were affected by crypto. I don’t see how you can say otherwise when both amd and Nvidia saw their graphics cards being allocated/out of stock and at higher prices. Since then both and and Nvidia gpus have cone down in price. This culminated in January about the same time bitcoin price peaked. Considering most miners use ASICS now depending on the currency (I believe erethium still uses gpus) I think it’s safe to say this can be put behind us.

According to this Nvidia gpu prices have also been going down. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tomshardware.com/news/best-…

As for what it means this quarter I am not sure. They could just as easily raise based on the inventory glut declining.

According to this article NVDA already took the brunt of crypto fall last quarter. https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/42…

I do take issue NVDA will not be immune to reselling used graphics cars because of the alteration they did for crypto miners, they could be just as impacted by a glut of used amd cards and remeber NVDA saw the shortage and rising price on all their cards not just the crypto-specific cards.

This should have been worked through the channel and I’m surprised it took amd as long as it did to come out with a weak forecasr. The fall began in q1 of this year.

I find it just as likely they raise guidance next q rather than lowering it due to yet another quarter of being impacted by crypto. I don’t see crypto having an impact for this long. Or worse than last q.


There are Nvidia GPU cards intended for mining that don’t have video output for that reason. These would get hit the hardest in the crypto downturn, but on the other hand they can’t flood the used market for video cards.

I think it’s likely that the market in these cards is a small fraction of Nvidia’s total video card market. I also think that Nvidia’s crypto card market (all cards sold for that purpose, with or without video output) will get dwarfed more and more by the rest of the market for Nvidia’s products. There will be video (gaming, graphic workstations, general use) and AI (data center, cars, other AI).

I should have added that a lot of buyers should be attracted by the near-$200 share price, and short sellers will be taking profits.

I should have added that a lot of buyers should be attracted by the near-$200 share price, and short sellers will be taking profits.

Guilty as charged, I bought a few under $200 shares.

Denny Schlesinger