You could see it in real time as well. I sold out of NVDA early last year. It was time to move on. I stupidly played earnings in October buying back Nvidia for a day or two and losing 20% on the earnings debacle (thought things just could not be so bad - breaking my own rules to do so - sometimes you need a sharp reminder why you stick to rules), but yes, in real time it was identifiable from the peak of its share price.
Did the same thing with Arista, again at its peak, at near the same time, for reasons discussed ad nauseum.
Point being, nothing is perfect (except maybe Alexander the Great’s battle record, and Caesar & Constantine didn’t do so bad either) but with good efficacy you can spot such early enough.
Arista’s was very easy to see when results did not march narrative, but we got a nice bounce into the $300s when it made Tesh S&P 500.
The Fool does not like to sell because I also sold SHOP (too early) but so what. I got rid of the other to be dogs (not disrespectfully but just to get to the point) and bought into other investments. Selling SHOP did not meet my sell rules, but SHOP always made me nervous. So you sell one too early but got rid of the others at their peak. I did add to Mongo, as an example.
Does create the hypothesis that rules to sell are as important as rules to buy, which does put a plug into the greatest criticism of Fool methodology. Of course everything I buy I buy to hold forever, but forever comes to us in different time frames.
I did not really screw up on Nutanix, other than buying into too many indirect statistics. The one that stood out to me however was marketshare gains. But that lasted one whole quarter and then God’s demolished. So, lesson learned, avoid the gobble gook. If you cannot even define what the apple is, much less compare apples to apples (as you simply cannot do now) then why deploy valuable resources to an entity that cannot evenin a straight forward manner define what the Apple is to begin with?
Duma and I and Phoolio had an excellent discussion on this. Some difference of opinion f Phoolio, but right or wrong Duma and I appear to be in agreement. It is not so much Nutanix as to what you could otherwise use the resources to invest in.
If anyone can truly define the true apPLE that one can compare YOY - so we have an apple to Apple true comparison that allows us to understand (in a straight forward manner) that Nutanix is not really selling less, it is just a mirage of accounting, please let me know. Bert tried…in my mind, despite creating enthusiasm, and doing his usual great job, I think he failed to make his point in a convincing manner when you dig in to the details,
Opinions differ of course.