NVDA

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

Many of the companies we invest on this board tend to focus on smaller market caps. Perhaps it is also because it is easier to 2x your initial investment with a 20B/40B market cap company as compared to a 500B market cap company (Company needs to grow another 20B/40B as compared to 500B!).

However I will just like to point out that amongst all these hypergrowth companies, there can be also winners that are growing with insane speed (like some of our favorite companies here) with much larger market cap.

Growing revenues at >50% YoY, high gross margins at 60+% and growing, GAAP numbers (mind you, which tend to be more conservative) growing >50% too

You prolly guessed it, it is Nvidia (no surprise).

Revenue (in Millions)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - Q4
2019 $2,220 $2,579 $3,014 $3,105 $10,918
QoQ Growth 16% 17% 3%
YoY Growth

2020 $3,080 $3,866 $4,726 $5,003 $16,675
QoQ Growth -1% 26% 22% 6%
YoY Growth 39% 50% 57% 61% 53%

2021 $5,661 $6,507 $7,103 $19,271
QoQ Growth 13% 15% 9%
YoY Growth 84% 68% 50%

GAAP Operating Income
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - Q4
2019 $358 $571 $927 $990 $2,846
QoQ Growth 59% 62% 7%
YoY Growth

2020 $976 $651 $1,398 $1,507 $4,532
QoQ Growth -1% -33% 115% 8%
YoY Growth 173% 14% 51% 52% 59%

2021 $1,956 $2,444 $2,671 $7,071
QoQ Growth 30% 25% 9%
YoY Growth 100% 275% 91%

Non GAAP Operating Margin (%)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - Q4
2020 25.1% 31.1% 38.4% 39.3% 34.2%
2021 39.1% 39.2% 42.2% 41.8% 40.8%
2022 45.2% 47.2% 47.7% 46.8%

Operating Cash Flow (in Thousands)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - Q4
2020 $720 $936 $1,640 $1,465 $4,761
2021 $909 $1,566 $1,279 $2,067 $5,821
2022 $1,874 $2,682 $1,519 $6,075

With its growing TAM of data centres (due to adoption of cloud services), Artificial intelligence, and possibly the Metaverse (they call it Omniverse), I just wonder how big can NVDA TAM be in 10 years time

Will it possible be as big as AAPL/GOOGL/MSFT one day? So far, execution from management has been very consistent.

Some say investing is about high risk high returns (you get compensated for the risk you take), however, I like to also sometimes find beauty in fantastic companies that are lower risk, high returns (just see GOOGL/AAPL/MSFT returns YTD).

Just thought it was good to provide other perspective when it comes to investing :slight_smile:

Still learning
Fool on everyone
YL

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2 
Apologies due to first time ever posting, i messed up the table format. Here's something clearer

	Revenue (in Millions)				
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1 - Q4
2019	$2,220	$2,579	$3,014	$3,105	$10,918
QoQ Growth		16%	17%	3%	
YoY Growth					
					
2020	$3,080	$3,866	$4,726	$5,003	$16,675
QoQ Growth	-1%	26%	22%	6%	
YoY Growth	39%	50%	57%	61%	53%
					
2021	$5,661	$6,507	$7,103		$19,271
QoQ Growth	13%	15%	9%		
YoY Growth	84%	68%	50%	

	GAAP Operating Income				
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1 - Q4
2019	$358	$571	$927	$990	$2,846
QoQ Growth		59%	62%	7%	
YoY Growth					
					
2020	$976	$651	$1,398	$1,507	$4,532
QoQ Growth	-1%	-33%	115%	8%	
YoY Growth	173%	14%	51%	52%	59%
					
2021	$1,956	$2,444	$2,671		$7,071
QoQ Growth	30%	25%	9%		
YoY Growth	100%	275%	91%		

	GAAP Operating Margin (%)				
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1 - Q4
2020	16.1%	22.1%	30.8%	31.9%	26.1%
2021	31.7%	16.8%	29.6%	30.1%	27.2%
2022	34.6%	37.6%	37.6%		36.7%

	Operating Cash Flow (in Thousands)				
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1 - Q4
2020	$720	$936	$1,640	$1,465	$4,761
2021	$909	$1,566	$1,279	$2,067	$5,821
2022	$1,874	$2,682	$1,519		$6,075

	Revenue Guidance (in Thousands)			
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
2020	$2,200	$2,555	$2,900	$2,950
Beat by (%)	0.9%	0.9%	3.9%	5.3%
2021	$3,000	$3,650	$4,400	$4,800
Beat by (%)	2.7%	5.9%	7.4%	4.2%
2022	$5,300	$6,300	$6,800	$7,400
Beat by (%)	6.8%	3.3%	4.5%
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3

NVDA has been a ‘Saul’ stock before, some two years ago, roughly. It would be best to go back and look for those posts to see why it fell out of favor. The discussions were quite detailed.

NVDA is #7 market cap for all publicly traded companies. While I own the stock, I’ve been trimming down.

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