Nvidia, dead money for how long?

[WillO2028]

I say smart money moves in on Friday, Monday at the latest. That’s the three day rule, as outlined here some years ago.

Yes, Blackwell will completely accelerate growth after next quarter; but, comps won’t be as good. But, there is 6-7 Trillion in cash on the sidelines looking to get into the Market. How does anyone not own Nvidia for the next few years.

I’m more interested in the company than the stock. As far as I can tell the company is deep tech without comparison, except maybe Tesla. And I expect their execution, which tops the best as far as I can tell, to only improve as AI separates those that use it and those that don’t.

The most important exchange on The Call IMO was here: Jensen has said as much and more on this subject; but here he starts without equivocation.

Vivek Arya

…Just how should we be prepared to see what we have seen historically, right, the periods of digestion along the way of a long-term kind of secular hardware deployment?

Jensen Huang

The way to think through that, Vivek, is I believe that there will be no digestion until we modernize a trillion dollars with the data centers. Those – if you look at the world’s data centers, the vast majority of it is built for a time when we wrote applications by hand and we ran them on CPUs. It’s just not a sensible thing to do anymore. If you have – if every company’s CapEx, if they’re ready to build a data center tomorrow, they ought to build it for a future of machine-learning and generative AI.

Because they have plenty of old data centers. And so what’s going to happen over the course of next X number of years, and let’s assume that over the course of four years, the world’s data centers could be modernized as we grow into IT. As you know, IT continues to grow about 20%, 30% a year, let’s say. And let’s say by 2030, the world’s data centers for computing is, call it a couple of trillion dollars. And we have to grow into that. We have to modernize the data center from coding to machine learning. That’s number one.

The second part of it is generative AI, and we’re now producing a new type of capability that world has never known, a new market segment that the world has never had. If you look at OpenAI, it didn’t replace anything. It’s something that’s completely brand new. It’s in a lot of ways as when the iPhone came, it was completely brand new. It wasn’t really replacing anything. And so we’re going to see more and more companies like that. And they’re going to create and generate out of their services, essentially intelligence. Some of it would be digital artist intelligence like Runway.

Some of it would be basic intelligence, like OpenAI. Some of it would be legal intelligence like Harvey. Digital marketing intelligence like [Reuters] (ph), so on and so forth. And the number of these companies, these – what are they call AI-native companies are just in hundreds and almost every platform shift there was – there were Internet companies as you recall, there were cloud-first companies. They were mobile-first companies and now they’re AI natives. And so these companies are being created because people see that there’s a platform shift and there’s a brand new opportunity to do something completely new.

And so my sense is that we’re going to continue to build out to modernize IT, modernize computing, number one. And then number two, create these AI factories that are going to be for a new industry for the production of artificial intelligence.

Any thoughts?

Best

Jason

[intjudo]

@WillO2028

four years, the world’s data centers could be modernized as we grow into IT. As you know, IT continues to grow about 20%, 30% a year, let’s say. And let’s say by 2030, the world’s data centers for computing is, call it a couple of trillion dollars. And we have to grow into that. We have to modernize the data center from coding to machine learning.

imo if datacenters were fully prepared, right now, for what $NVDA can deliver, then it’d be game, set, match for $NVDA as of today; they’d already basically have a permanent monopoly with no credible challenge on the horizon.

As things stand, according to Huang, it’ll be anywhere from “4 years” (let’s call it January 2029) to 2030 before datacenter infrastructure can fully accommodate what $NVDA can deliver.

If that’s true, then imo all other challengers have until 2030 to deliver a credible threat to $NVDA. If they don’t, then it’s game, set, match for $NVDA in 2030

[intjudo]

…to summarize my thought on all this:

We all need to be on the lookout for any company that can deliver results that approach, let’s say, 80% of what $NVDA can do, but with drastically lower power/cooling/floorspace requirements such that current datacenters can easily accommodate it. Such a company, if it exists or emerges, imo is the only potential credible threat to $NVDA’s dominance

[Tamhas]

@intjudo

80% of what $NVDA can do, but with drastically lower power/cooling/floorspace requirements

Not to say that this is impossible, but a lot of the problem is just physics … the heat is going to happen and needs to be dealt with. If there is a more likely transformative development, I would expect it to be some kind of cooling, perhaps that would retrofit to existing data centers.