…as the head of the MTA has repeatedly acknowledged that electric-bus technology is “still immature.”
…75 electric buses from five MTA depots have been able to go into service less than 60% of the time that had been anticipated. But officials said the 2040 commitment remains in place…
The MTA has previously said that the ambitious effort to electrify its entire fleet could cost close to $12 billion, estimating in 2022 that it would require enough power to light up 200,000 homes.
Must be something about the procurement process in New York. There are EV busses and entire systems with electrified transit in other parts of the world:
Shenzhen, China has a fully electrified public bus fleet of over 6,000 vehicles. Santiago, Chile has the largest electric bus fleet outside of China, with thousands of active vehicles. Shanghai and Beijing have the most in sheer numbers. European cities like Madrid and various locations in the Netherlands are also rapidly electrifying their transit networks.
Entirely possible, although the problems are not limited to NYC (not to mention that the cost is about double). From Austin, Texas…
Capital Metro is slamming the brakes on an ambitious goal of transitioning to an all-electric bus fleet, citing problems with the range of battery-electric buses…
Diesel buses can run from early in the morning until past midnight. A battery bus only runs about 8 to 10 hours before it needs to be recharged, creating tough logistical hurdles in scheduling routes.
An analysis by the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) — a state-funded research agency at Texas A&M University — found battery-electric buses could only cover 36% of Capital Metro’s bus schedules…Austin’s hills drain batteries faster. So does trying to cool buses in the city’s oppressive heat. But range shortcomings are only part of the problem.
Data obtained by KUT through the Texas Public Information Act revealed CapMetro’s battery-electric buses are far less reliable than their diesel counterparts. E-buses had mechanical failures on average every 1,623 miles over the last year — less than half the typical distance between failures for the fleet as a whole.
CapMetro has 104 electric buses that run on batteries. Fifty-eight of them were made by New Flyer, and 46 were made by a company called Phoenix, also known as Proterra. Less than half of them are actually being used on routes each day.
WPS along with several other Maine school districts received the electric buses as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s $5 billion “Clean School Bus Program,” launched in October 2022, which has a goal of transitioning all public school bus fleets to 75 percent all-electric buses by 2035. As part of this program, the district reportedly gave up a diesel bus for each new electric one.
Winthrop received its four buses from Lion Electric in September, and three out of the four are tied up awaiting repairs…According to the report, the heating systems in three out of the four buses have failed.
Electric buses show mixed results in U.S. cities, working very well in some locations while facing significant operational and infrastructure hurdles in others.
The Successes
Lower Operating Costs: Agencies in temperate climates, such as Seneca, South Carolina, and various California districts, report reduced fuel and maintenance expenses compared to traditional diesel fleets. [1]
Environmental & Comfort Benefits: Successful deployments provide quiet rides and zero tailpipe emissions, helping cities improve local air quality. [1]
Cold-Climate Adaptations: Agencies like Mountain Line in Missoula, Montana, achieved high electrification rates by working closely with manufacturers to test and optimize heated battery systems for winter performance. [1]
The Challenges
Cold Weather Performance: Extreme cold significantly reduces battery range and heating efficiency, leading to temporary service disruptions or idle fleets in colder cities like Burlington, Vermont. [1]
High Upfront and Infrastructure Costs: Electric transit buses cost around $750,000 compared to $500,000 for diesel, and utility demand charges can inflate per-mile operating costs. [1, 2]
Reliability and Manufacturing Hurdles: Early rollouts in cities like Albuquerque faced severe mechanical issues, and industry disruptions—such as the bankruptcy of major manufacturer Proterra—have left some transit agencies struggling with software bugs, maintenance bottlenecks, and grounded vehicles. [1, 2]
It might not be procurement. It might just be because electric buses provide a smaller cost benefit in the US than in many (most) other places. In normal times, the U.S. has much lower prices for gas and diesel than most of the rest of the world. And our AI Overlords tell me that we don’t have the heavily discounted/nearly free electric rates that many other countries subsidize for mass transit uses.
NYMTA would still likely recoup the maintenance savings, but the operating savings from fuel substitution would be lower for them than most other places. Certainly compared to China, which heavily subsidized electricity and has very high diesel import taxes.
After just one day of shuttling students, the buses’ high-voltage chargers began malfunctioning, sidelining the vehicles for weeks. When the buses were back on the road in November, their heating systems failed, forcing both out of service again, including one for four months…
Of the roughly 500,000 school buses nationwide, about 5,000 run on batteries. But the rollout has been rocky, rife with technical challenges and logistical headaches — and resistance from voters.
Their range on a single charge is a small fraction of that of traditional buses and drops in colder months, school officials say. Maintenance issues can idle them for weeks. And they are expensive: Some cost nearly $500,000, two to three times the price of a diesel version.
How do you know today is not the new normal? Someone posted elsewhere that they saw $8/gal where they live. I’ve seen over $6 where I live (just checked, the internet says Phx average is $6.69 right now).
I see little reason that will change any time soon. More missiles aren’t going to change it, and that’s all this administration is willing to do. Plus, we’ve depleted our inventories that we may not be able to exercise that option much longer. Iran is in the driver’s seat, and I have the feeling that they like it.
I suspect that some of the pricing is emotional reactions, which will subside. But I doubt we’ll see sub-$4 ever again. In which case, EVs of all sorts make even more sense.
I don’t know for sure, but I suspect that the current status quo is not stable. Neither Iran nor any of the other Gulf States nor China nor the rest of the world can really continue in a world where no traffic gets through the Strait. When something can’t go on forever, it usually doesn’t.
The President doesn’t care about much, but he does seem to be averse to being a second Hoover. Given that this is METAR I’ll avoid the politics of it all, but suffice it to say that at some point - when all the global reserves have been drained and this becomes not merely an oil price problem but an oil scarcity problem - the threat of Hooverism will move from potential to incipient to imminent. I don’t think the current administration will let it get there.
I think the idea is to gain political cover for giving Iran a lot of concessions when the House and/or Senate change hands, which will give the President someone else to blame for when we reach an accord with Iran.