What is his credentials? When Berkshire CEO, Buffett talks about the investment required to build the grid, or a major utility CEO’s or major investment banks, or research house talks, they bring a huge wealth of knowledge. Why waste your time to some unknow guy on the internet?
Signal to noise ratio is important.
That guy is FAR from an unknown when it comes to engineering and automobiles.
On plastic production which will remain for a longer while?
Or on ICE usage which is disappearing? Roads are going unfixed because those federal and state taxes are slowly drying up.
That said raising gasoline taxes is a great idea to speed up the adaptation of EVs. Politically it won’t happen. It is not an important target. Americans want to travel.
Department of Energy whitepaper. Of course the more plausible scenario they talk is gradual conversion till 2050. The incremental demand is 2% to 3%, which over 25 years is 50% to 75% higher than today.
ICE usage is increasing, not disappearing. It’s increasing more slowly than in the past, but that is a different thing.
Roads are going unfixed because those federal and state taxes are slowly drying up.
Most states have already accounted for that, increasing registration costs for EVs and hybrids. It costs me $200/yr for my EV. $100 for Mrs. Goofy’s hybrid. Gas cars get registered for $40. If I drove an ICE car the typical 12,000 miles per year and got the typical 20mpg, I’d be spending $40 for registration and $156 in gasoline tax. So the amount available for highway construction/maintenance is, for all practical purposes, unaffected.
Once EVs are significant portion of the vehicle fleet some sort of taxation will be imposed upon EVS methinks.
What Goofyhoofy said. Those days are already here.
10 years ago, we did not have a mass market EV car.
Now we have Chinese market (largest market) as 50% EV.
How will world look like in 10 years ?
Hybrids are outselling EVs in China. It is 50% including hybrids.
I admit I am vague on that. Let me google.
Retail sales of new-energy cars, a term in China referring to EVs and hybrid vehicles, made up 53.9% of all passenger-vehicle sales in August, after sales for the category surpassed internal-combustion-engine cars for the first time in July, the China Passenger Car Association said Monday.2 days ago
Goof? Really? Stay current.
AI Overview
Yes, sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in the United States have been declining, while electric vehicle (EV) sales have been increasing:
ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and have been declining ever since. In 2022, 59 million ICE cars were sold globally, which was a 29% decrease from their peak in 2017.
EV sales have been growing strongly year after year. In 2023, EV sales were up 385% compared to 2019, while ICEV sales were down 14%.
Some reasons for the decline in ICE vehicle sales include:
You need to understand the replacement cycle. Unless you have all new car buyers are 100% EV now, you are not going to have 100% EV in 10 years. Today EV’s have 7% market share which is great, but you have a very long way.
Separately there is a huge section of population feel strongly about oil, for them using EV is sacrilege. Funny is that population and Elon are in the same side.
The intersection is angry divorced males. Or bizarre drug users. Or guys who hate hearing shut up you are making no sense.
If it had to do with cars Elon would say nothing.
My view is that the last 30% - 40% of ICE folds very quickly. The ICE infrastructure would not be financially viable as EVs take over. You can already see the distress with VW.
Keep in mind that ICE companies also pay huge amount of carbon credit dollars to EV companies even today. That is straight up profit for the Tesla’s of the world to use to dig the ICE grave faster.
I am all for environment, climate, etc. If the electricity for EV comes from burning fossil fuel, do they deserve carbon credit? The carbon credit is nothing to do with climate change rather it is another opportunity for the wall street to financialize a social issue, it is just a distraction.
What is ICE infrastructure? Gas stations, refineries, Oil Changers? Sustaining existing infrastructure costs lot.
When you have a more powerful medicine, people stop taking the old one and it is a binary outcome for the older medicine.
The EV vs ICE is not like that. Also, EV’s have not even scratched 10% of total car sales, already their momentum is decelerating.
The math just doesn’t add up. We may hit an inflection point sometime in future. But there is nothing that suggests that is anywhere near.
I don’t know if they would deserve the credit or not. But it would still be a net gain. EVs are much more energy efficient. Typically 75 - 135 MPGe and even accounting for losses at generation and transmission still come out way above the typical 25 mpg ICE. And don’t forget all the smog emitted from tailpipes vs moving it away from where people breathe most often.
EVs powered from coal emit less CO2 than an ICE as well
Mike
Except that every year more cars are “on the road” than the previous year, and more are being added than are being junked.
Total registrations:
2010 250,070,000
2015 263,610,000
2020 275,836,000
2022 283,400,000
2023 292,300,000
However it’s fair to note that some for the registrations are EVs. That would be a total of 3.3 million in 2023, meaning total ICE cars last year was 289,000,000. An increase from 2022, you see?
Yes, ICE car sales have declined, but since we’re talking about GAS consumption, the relevant statistic is “how many cars are driving using gas?”
The answer is: “more cars are driving on gas this year than last, and more were using gas last year than the year before, and so on.” Eventually that will plateau and decline, of course, the question is “when?”
Here’s some interesting tidbits from Norway, where famously 94% of new car sales are EVs:
More than 50% of passenger cars on the road in Oslo are electric, a threshold that BEVs alone will pass 50% in the next two years.Such an aggressive growth in EV sales should lead to a dramatic fall in fuel demand. But that is yet to materialize, and sales figures from Statistics Norway (SSB) show diesel and gasoline demand has declined only modestly since 2017. In the first half of 2023, road fuel sales hovered around 62,000 barrels per day (bpd), a 10% fall from the 70,000 bpd sold between 2017 and 2019, well after the EV boom started. Current consumption is relatively stable between 60,000 and 70,000 bpd, and a precipitous drop is not forecast in the near term.
To be clear, I am not saying gas consumption won’t eventually go down, just that it won’t happen with the kind of speed that so many here are predicting. Things take time, especially massive changes affecting the very lifeblood of a country. (Depression? War? Then all bets are off.)
I am keeping up. You might try looking behind the overly exuberant headlines.
That includes commercial trucks. See?
You can’t seem to follow a thread. This thread is about “oil”, and what that might do to oil prices, oil stocks, and oil profits.
It does not matter if it’s commercial vehicles or homeowner vehicles or lawnmowers from Brazil. Gas is not going away, not anytime soon anyway.
I offered you Norway, perhaps the single best case of EV acceptance, and the effect on gas has been minor. Not good enough for some reason you are desperately searching for? Here’s China gas consumption. You know, China, where EVs rule and it’s hard to get a gas car on the road anymore.
Gasoline:
As I continue to say, it will change. Just not in the time frame the hook-line-and-sinker headline readers hereabouts are predicting.
My main contribution here is the BP report that the peak demand is in 2025. You’ve got blinders.
