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Bold is my guesstimate. My thought is to have a couple of numbers on hand that represent my ‘ballpark’ expectations. Sizable deviation from these guesses will cause me to focus and think on Wednesday afternoon/night. I am more than willing to hear others ballpark figures for expectations and what constitutes ‘Failure’, so please offer up…


FY	2020				2021				2022			
FQ	_Q2__	_Q3__	_Q4__	_Q1__	_Q2__	_Q3__	_Q4__	_Q1__	_Q2__	**_Q3__**	Q4
QE-Date	7/31	10/31	1/31/20	4/30	7/31	10/31	1/31/21	4/30	7/31	**10/31**
Sub-Rev	132,494	144,517	158,514	173,781	190,689	206,743	225,400	240,058	303,121	**327,371**	
- QoQ	13.1%	 9.1%	 9.7%	 9.6%	 9.7%	 8.4%	 9.0%	 6.5%	26.3%	 **8.0%**	
- YoY				48.3%	43.9%	43.1%	42.2%	38.1%	59.0%	**58.4%**	

RPO	0.914	1.033	1.208	1.243	1.427	1.58	1.800	1.890	2.240	**2.464**	
- YoY					  56%	  53%	  49%	  52%	  57%	 **56%**	
- QoQ		13.0%	17.0%	2.9%	14.7%	10.7%	13.9%	 5.0%	18.5%	**10.0%**	

CurrRPO	0.461	0.516	0.593	0.620	0.688	0.7532	0.8418	0.899	1.100	**1.210**

My guess is like ZScaler, it benefits from other cloud SaaS making inroads and blowing up the identity/security paradigm inside a lot of IT departments, forcing them to look at a full-blown identity/zero-trust solution.

Combining with Auth0 in 2021 has provided a non-organic bump to the revenue growth story, of course.
Linking Starrob’s Auth0/Okta merger recap analysis: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414010-okta-auth0-interest…

-Another Rob

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Actual:
Q3	FQ
10/21	QE-Date
337,000	Subscription Revenues
11.2%	- QoQ
63.0%	- YoY
2.35	RPO
49%	- YoY
4.9%	- QoQ
1.18	Current RPO

Subscriptions did better than my “guesstimates,” and maybe shows the Auth0 merger was acquiring someone growing faster than Okta. That’s good.

The RPO and Current RPO are not quite what I had hoped, but I admit I didn’t have a well thought out process for estimating RPO based off an estimate for Subscription Revenues.

As far as what the market is doing, I cannot/would not draw any company-based conclusions during this ‘hissy fit’, so I’ll probably conclude that OKTA is doing well and wait for the ROTW to notice.

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