In this post, I’ll compare Saul’s returns over the past 30 years to BRK.A and SPY. I’ll also show how you can validate his returns for yourself. It’s easy to do this, because he posts his buys and sells every month. Since this is the Berkshire board, I’ll also point out some similarities between how Saul and Warren approach investing. You may be surprised by how much they have in common.
We all need to decide what investing style suits us best. I discovered Saul’s board in early 2018, and decided there was no way I could run as concentrated an aggressive growth portfolio as he does. Doesn’t suit my risk tolerance. So I allocated just a portion of my portfolio to his stocks and wound up with a 15% return in 2018. Whereas his portfolio returned 71% that year because he was all in. 2018 was a down year for index fund investors, so I was more than happy with my 15% return. I’ve continued with the approach of following Saul with only the aggressive growth portion of my portfolio since then.
Comparing Saul’s Returns to BRK.A and SPY over the past 30 years
Check out the following table.
| Saul’s Historical Record | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Saul’s return | Saul Amount | SPY return | SPY Amount | BRK.A return | BRK.A amount |
| $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | ||||
| 1993 | 21.4% | $12,140 | 10.0% | $11,000 | 38.9% | $13,894 |
| 1994 | 15.4% | $14,010 | 1.2% | $11,132 | 25.0% | $17,362 |
| 1995 | 43.4% | $20,090 | 37.6% | $15,315 | 57.4% | $27,319 |
| 1996 | 29.4% | $25,996 | 23.0% | $18,843 | 6.2% | $29,021 |
| 1997 | 17.4% | $30,519 | 33.5% | $25,155 | 34.9% | $39,149 |
| 1998 | 4.9% | $32,015 | 29.2% | $32,489 | 52.2% | $59,574 |
| 1999 | 115.5% | $68,992 | 20.8% | $39,253 | -19.9% | $47,742 |
| 2000 | 19.4% | $82,376 | -9.4% | $35,568 | 26.6% | $60,423 |
| 2001 | 46.9% | $121,011 | -11.6% | $31,440 | 6.5% | $64,338 |
| 2002 | 19.7% | $144,850 | -22.0% | $24,525 | -3.8% | $61,912 |
| 2003 | 124.5% | $325,189 | 28.7% | $31,574 | 15.8% | $71,701 |
| 2004 | 16.7% | $379,495 | 10.9% | $35,010 | 4.3% | $74,805 |
| 2005 | 15.6% | $438,696 | 5.0% | $36,760 | 0.8% | $75,419 |
| 2006 | 8.6% | $476,424 | 15.8% | $42,561 | 24.1% | $93,602 |
| 2007 | 22.5% | $583,620 | 5.6% | $44,960 | 28.7% | $120,504 |
| 2008 | -62.5% | $218,857 | -36.6% | $28,488 | -31.8% | $82,208 |
| 2009 | 110.7% | $461,133 | 26.2% | $35,947 | 2.7% | $84,419 |
| 2010 | 0.3% | $462,516 | 15.0% | $41,338 | 21.4% | $102,501 |
| 2011 | -14.5% | $395,451 | 1.7% | $42,059 | -4.7% | $97,653 |
| 2012 | 23.0% | $486,405 | 16.2% | $48,874 | 16.8% | $114,078 |
| 2013 | 51.0% | $734,471 | 32.4% | $64,702 | 32.7% | $151,382 |
| 2014 | -9.8% | $662,493 | 13.7% | $73,547 | 27.0% | $192,316 |
| 2015 | 16.0% | $768,492 | 1.3% | $74,509 | -12.5% | $168,315 |
| 2016 | 2.5% | $787,704 | 11.8% | $83,337 | 23.4% | $207,734 |
| 2017 | 84.2% | $1,450,952 | 22.0% | $101,703 | 21.9% | $253,248 |
| 2018 | 71.4% | $2,486,931 | -4.3% | $97,330 | 2.8% | $260,390 |
| 2019 | 28.4% | $3,193,220 | 31.3% | $127,794 | 11.0% | $288,981 |
| 2020 | 233.3% | $10,643,001 | 18.9% | $151,947 | 2.4% | $295,974 |
| 2021 | 39.6% | $14,857,629 | 28.3% | $194,948 | 29.6% | $383,494 |
| 2022 | -68.40% | $4,695,011 | -18.0% | $159,857 | 3.30% | $396,149 |
| Saul | SPY | BRK.A | ||||
| 30-year CAGR | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.0% |
The table above shows that even after last year’s painful 68% drawdown, Saul has achieved a 23% annualized return over the past 30 years. That puts him in the same league as the best investors of all time. $10,000 invested with Saul in 1993 would have turned into $4.7 million last year, assuming a non-taxable account. That same $10K invested in Berkshire 30 years ago would have turned into $398K today (13% CAGR). An index fund investor would have wound up with about $160K by comparison (9.7% CAGR).
The ups and downs of Saul’s port are something else, though. In the table above, you can see that the Saul-following investor hit a portfolio peak of almost $15 million at the end of 2021, only to come crashing back to the $4.7M level today. The port was also down 62% in 2008, and took more than 4 years to recover.
Validating Saul’s Results
About 7 years ago, because of Saul’s stellar investing record, he was interviewed by financial blogger Chris Reining. You can read the interview at Interview with Saul Rosenthal: How He Makes a Living off Stocks | Chris Reining
Reining validates that from 1989 through 2007, Saul averaged 32% annual returns.
Here’s a message that tabulates his annual returns since 1993: I think I'm Done - #36 by Lester2216
But the easiest way to validate his returns over the past 8 years is to go to the page that indexes all his month-end messages at Info Respository For Saul's Board
Start with the oldest message (Nov 2013), and click on each month after that. In a Google spreadsheet, track his buys and sells and allocate the percentages he reports to confirm his returns. I (along with hundreds of others) can personally vouch for them based on following him since 2018.
Similarities in how Saul and Warren approach investing
- They are both interested in buying businesses and holding them for multi-year periods rather than trading stocks.
- They both bury themselves in company earnings reports and 10Ks, and read them from start to finish
- They don’t engage in any market timing of any kind
- They both seek businesses with moats
- Both of them have experienced drawdowns of 50%+, and they take it in stride. Yes it hurts, but they don’t flinch. It’s just a cost of doing business.
Hope this helps. Good luck to all.