Opportunity feels like a punch in the face

There is an article in The Wall Street Journal today page see C3, the article didn’t interest me much but that line- opportunity often feels like a punch in the face- that is one for the ages.

I feel like I have been punched in the face a lot this earning season. It kinda torques me off, I know I should be dispassionate - but I am not that evolved…

Now that the trading restrictions are over I can tell you I bought more Skx last week. Going into the report I had a 10% position. Like many of you I was at work when the earnings came out. So I saw a headline on my phone about the stock cratering after hours, groaned and went back to work.

When I got home I pulled up the earning they looked pretty good, but I had not adjusted my numbers for the split, so I needed to do that to reassure myself.

So here they are:
2012: 351,384,429,395
2013: 451,428,515,450
2014: 546,587,674,569
2015: 768,800,856

2012: (.02)(.01).07,.03
2013: .04,.05,.18,.09
2014: .20,.23,.33,.14 (all four =.9)
2015: .37,.52,.43 (Three =1.3 up 45% over last year’s total!!)

I was flummoxed! Why on earth what a stock like that be down 30%? Truthfully I have no idea. But I I did feel like I’ve been punched in the face. And now I had a decision to make I told you I had a 10% position going then course with a 30% drop I had a smaller position. I had been raising cash for a while, I made the decision to buy more. I asked the Fool compliance department for permission to trade and got it. And I bought more, I was lucky and got in below 30.

I cannot explain the market behavior of late, it is not the first time The market has perplexed me, not by a long shot. I think Saul has great powers of emotional detachment, but I’m not Saul a torques me off. To prevent myself from doing something stupid I have got to walk away from the market. I don’t mean I change any of my positions, I mean- no watching CNBC, no reading the financial press. I can read earning releases, annual reports, factual things, but no opinions.

I made my decision based on facts and now I need to give my companies time. I experience self doubt, but I distract myself from the market. I know myself well enough to know what steps to take, and remind myself that the market goes nuts sometime. Sometimes to my advantage, but this year they craziness seem to be against my positions.

Now I am going to put some ice on my bruised face :wink: and I am going to read a good book, so I can ignore the market until Go Pro reports.

Long Skx, no position in Go Pro


Oh and I did not make any adjustment for the lawsuit, or currency changes. I did back out the cash- cash is cash it should not have a multiple (well OK it should have a multiple of one). Anyway backing out the cash I was able to pick Skx up at a 19 price-to-earnings ratio, with only three quarters reported they’ve Already beat last year’s earnings by 45%. And 19 PE makes no sense but I’m going to take the gift when the market gives it.

1 Like

Like you, Flygal, I feel like I’ve been kicked/punched in the face a lot these last couple of months. SKX, AMBA, SWKS, BOFI, WAB all down, and not for direct actionable reasons. More like innuendoes and suspicions and hunches and ‘concerns’…or just b/c they have fallen out of Mr Market’s favor for now.

Given there seems to be no fundamental problems w/ the companies, and they continue to earn, one must just learn to swallow the whims of the market. Some days, this is harder than others. INFN goes up 14% after solid earnings, and AAPL only rises 3% on monster earnings. It is all so arbitrary-feeling some days, and while one could choose to look at it like one’s stock picks are being held hostage/down unfairly, one could also choose to look at it as opportunities for some great bargain investments.

I’m glad you found a way that works for you.


I feel like I have been punched in the face a lot this earning season

My portfolio did some counter-punching today:

IPGP Sock!
AMTD Take that Mr. Market!
VRSK OK, he got in a pretty good shot there, but I still win this round soundly on the judge’s cards.

Good days are nice once in a while.


I just took 2 more gut punches, GPRO and BWLD both down over 14% in after hours after their earnings release.

I realize why they both are down and look at the drops more as opportunities than reasons to sell, but still don’t like seeing it as too many of my stocks seem to be down significantly more than the market in general at this time.

BWLD isn’t really a “Saul stock” so I won’t discuss it here, but the GPRO drop is from missing expectations and competitive concerns/fad potential (which I don’t believe).

REV 400M actual vs 433M expectations
Non-GAAP EPS .25 actual vs .29 expectations

But the YOY gains were still quite good.

REV 400M vs 280M or 43% increase
Non-GAAP EPS .25 vs .12 or 108% increase

Also, quite happy with the following bullet point:

International sales totaled more than 50% of Q3 revenue; combined EMEA and APAC revenue was up over 175% YOY.

So at least their largest segment going forward is also their fastest growing.


Don’t think people liked the guidance much.

GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) has guided on its earnings call for Q4 revenue of $500M-$550M and EPS of $0.35-$0.45, well below a consensus of $690.5M and $0.82. For reference, year-ago Q4 sales (boosted by Hero4 camera launches) were $633.9M..

1 Like

GoPro’s poor quarter and guidance has hurt AMBA in the AH as it is down around $52.50.


Don’t think people liked the guidance much.

Well that definitely explains it!

That’ll teach me to jump the gun and leave a message before I’ve had a chance to look at the whole release/transcript! HA, I only saw the past performance, hadn’t seen the terrible Q4 guidance.

Need to re-evaluate my thinking on this one!

Markets go up. Markts go down. That’s what markets do.

When markets go up unreasonably fast they come back down just as rapidly.


SKX was up almost three fold in six months. That’s unsustainable and time to take some profits.

Now SKX is up ONLY 50% in eight months. I wish all my stocks did that! I’ll settle for 50% for the full year. Even 25%… :wink:

Denny Schlesinger