OT: Deathly silence

No new posts in more than 24 hours, while the market is in turmoil.
Where is everybody? Did they volunteer to fight in Ukraine?

Elan

2 Likes

Where is everybody? Did they volunteer to fight in Ukraine?

Simple: Quant strategies don’t react to news!

(but quant practitioners do…)

Jim

13 Likes

No new posts in more than 24 hours, while the market is in turmoil.
Where is everybody? Did they volunteer to fight in Ukraine?

I’m backtesting a strategy for buying puts.

DB2

3 Likes

hey Jim,

Did your mini-bottom indicator go off at all with today’s plunge.
Feels like the boiling frog narrative.

market slowly getting us used to lower and lower levels.
just no full-on capitulation puke yet.

Dreamer

6 Likes

The recent low on the SPX is 4,114, we’re 200 points above that

The recent low on the SPX is 4,114, we’re 200 points above that

Was that an intra-day low? I don’t see it listed as a closing low.

With all these recent 500 & 600 point Dow up days and equivalent on the S&P I was getting nervous.

No new posts in more than 24 hours, while the market is in turmoil.
Where is everybody?

Nothing special is going on. Not in the domain of Mechanical Investing at least.
A number of other boards have gone largely silent, too. Or long off-topic threads about stupid things.

Events, sure, that twitter, facebook, and the news media wants us to get excited about—attracting eyeballs, as they are wont to do.

Ken Fisher had some words. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-war-correctionnot-bea…
“… it all transfixes investors. Don’t fret. This is a correction within a bull market, not a bear market.”

Standard disclaimer: “Editors’ Note: This article addresses some political developments, so please note that MarketMinder is intentionally nonpartisan, favoring no party or any politician. We assess such matters solely for their potential economic, market and/or personal finance impacts.”

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/into-pe…

At this time, the GTT signal has not fired to sell.

4 Likes

Where is everybody?

Working in the garden and woodshed while the weather is nice.

JLC

3 Likes

Fwiw - GTAA is indicating 100% cash, has been for 2 months unless u add commodities.

My timing dashboard has been solid pessimistic for 6-7 weeks. I’m 90% cash and 10% short.

IWM and Naz are in bear markets. Anyone want to lay down a short?

8 Likes

Anyone want to lay down a short?

Cash sounds sensible enough for me, in general.

For actual profiting from any slide—
I speculate that there is probably some money to be made buying very low strike OTM puts against some of the most exuberant issues.
Those out of touch with reality in terms of expectations, hype, any plausible hope of making a buck any time soon.
The weaker SPACs, third tier wannabe EV firms and suppliers, and so on.
Not all of these will be failures, but the amount risked on each one would be small, and I think many will be at spectacularly lower prices at some point.
Some will likely hit zero.

I would not eliminate those tickers that are way way down from their highs. There is still plenty of free air under a lot of them; the highs should be ignored.
For the lazy, there are options traded for SPAK.

Jim

8 Likes

For the lazy, there are options traded for SPAK.
No volume.

1 Like

For the lazy, there are options traded for SPAK.

No volume.

Volume doesn’t matter, just where the (probably automatic) counterparty will hit your bid.
Lots of zero-volume options can be traded at pretty reasonable prices.

The bigger problem is that there are no LEAPS…bearish wagers sometimes take some time to work out, and August might not be long enough.

Jim

7 Likes

Lots of zero-volume options can be traded at pretty reasonable prices.

How to determine what a reasonable bid is with bid/ask spreads of $0.05/$4.80 (August $15/$16/$17)?

1 Like

How to determine what a reasonable bid is with bid/ask spreads of $0.05/$4.80 (August $15/$16/$17)?

With a little patience you can ferret out the reasonably fair price. When I want to sell into a spread like that, I start with an offer of 4.70. It probably won’t execute. So I drop it to 4.60. Wait a little while, then drop it again. Keep doing it until you get an execution.

Elan

6 Likes

What is in your timing dashboard, if you don’t mind sharing?

Sandywater

For the lazy, there are options traded for SPAK.

No volume.

I got a good fill on my order this morning, right at the halfway mark between ask and bid.

DB2

3 Likes

When I want to sell into a spread like that, I start with an offer of 4.70. It probably won’t execute. So I drop it to 4.60. Wait a little while, then drop it again. Keep doing it until you get an execution.

This.

As mungo said, your counterparty is a computer algorithm. It has a price that the algorithm decides it will fill at.
Start a limit order and move your limit 5 or 10 cents at a time until you hit that number. When you get to that number, you wil get an IMMEDIATE fill.
Has happened to me many many times.

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Sandy - last listed at http://discussion.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=34967137.

My implementation of several signals discussed lo these laat 12-13 years plus a few more from various sources, backtested.

Almost everything except 2 BearCatchers and the seasonal are bearish.

3 Likes