OT: Draught exposes all

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

Dams create man-made lakes, almost by definition. As this summer’s major climate change event, of bands of draughts in Earth’s temperate zones, drains these lakes through evaporation, all sorts of unexpected stuff is being exposed.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/yangtze-river-reveals-bud…

Plunging water levels of the Yangtze River have revealed a submerged island in China’s southwestern city of Chongqing and a trio of Buddhist statues on it that are believed to be 600 years old, state media Xinhua has reported.

The three statues were found on the highest part of the island reef called Foyeliang, initially identified as built during the Ming and Qing dynasties. One of the statues depicts a monk sitting on a lotus pedestal.

The Yangtze’s water levels have been falling rapidly due to a drought and a heatwave in China’s southwestern region.

Amid Spain’s worst drought in decades, a rare prehistoric site has emerged. Dubbed “Spanish Stonehenge,” a rock formation believed to date back to 5,000 B.C. is now fully emerged after waters in the surrounding reservoir receded.

Another of Europe’s mighty rivers, the Danube, has fallen to one of its lowest levels in almost a century, exposing the hulks of more than 20 German warships sunk during World War II near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo.

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/08/1116307660/lake-mead-human-re…

And, of course, there is our own Lake Mead, where a number of bodies have been expose - including some which were found in barrels, apparently dead from cases of short-term lead poisoning due to the bullets lodged in their bones.

More generalized about France:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/18/europe/france-drought-climate…

A couple of personal notes: I remember taking a boat down the Yangtze before the Three Gorges Dam was closed. In order to clear the villages that were going to be submerged when the dam closed, the Chinese government built over a hundred new cities and relocated over a million people. Similarly, when we visited the Temple of Abu Sambal in Egypt, the entire temple had been relocated out of the rising waters of Lake Nasser after the Aswan High Dam was built (but many more temples were left to be submerged. On the heat front, we no longer travel to the Mediterranean area during the Summer months (places like Italy, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, southern France, North Africa, etc.) as they have simply become too hot to do any meaningful sightseeing. The last time we were in Rome during the summer, we spent a week of museum hopping just to get into air conditioned spaces (and got to see some very interesting lessor known ones - but it was hot as blazes outside).

Jeff

8 Likes
2

I have been thinking about this in light of the news reports of late.

Droughts threaten Chinese crops; the Chinese government is considering massive (China size) cloud seeding to stave off further damage to agriculture:

https://sports.yahoo.com/china-plans-cloud-seeding-protect-0…

China is now rationing power to factories because of low levels behind hydro dams:

https://money.yahoo.com/china-extends-power-rationing-factor…

In Africa, 22 million are in danger of starvation because of drought:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/20/drought-in-hor…

And, of course, we are all familiar with the problems in the US: the Colorado river basin is drying up, water rationing has already begun in parts of Nevada and California, Lake Mead is at the lowest level in decades…

So my question is: where is it raining? I mean, I would think there should be some areas where rainfalls are extremely above average, or has the whole world stopped getting rainfall (snowfall)?

1 Like
3

So my question is: where is it raining? I mean, I would think there should be some areas where rainfalls are extremely above average, or has the whole world stopped getting rainfall (snowfall)?

Weather and climate are two different things. An example from the southern part of the Southwest US drought zone:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/20/weather/tropical-storm-southw…

Nearly 10 million people across Arizona, New Mexico and western Texas are under flood watches Saturday, including Phoenix, Albuquerque and El Paso.

“The stage is set for southern Arizona and New Mexico to potentially receive prolific rainfall and widespread flash flooding today,” as a low-pressure system brings moist, tropical air to the Southwest in the form of heavy rain and thunderstorms to add to the already active monsoon season across the region, the Weather Prediction Center said early Saturday morning.

Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches, with locally higher totals of 5 to 7 inches, are forecast across the region – leading the WPC to issue a level 3 out of 4 “moderate” risk for excessive rainfall ahead of the wet forecast. That could mean widespread flash flooding across the Southwest.

Jeff

1 Like
4

There is a reason Stevie Ray Vaughn sang about Texas floods!

5

So my question is: where is it raining? I mean, I would think there should be some areas where rainfalls are extremely above average, or has the whole world stopped getting rainfall (snowfall)?

Precipitation has changed (more, but generally NOT distributed over a significantly large area) over the past decades, as overall temperatures have also gotten warmer.

Remember: Warmer air means that air can hold more moisture, so the potential rain/snow from that warmer air is more than previously. Now we get 4"-6"-8" of rain or snow when we used to get 2" or so.

We see this in MN, as weather patterns are more frequently “following a train track” over a very few smaller areas and dropping massive volumes of water over a day or two, and not distributing that precipitation over a much larger area.

What is needed is a way to collect that water where it falls and move it (via relatively short) pipelines to nearby areas that do not get the rain. Moving water large distances would only work for very large and consistent volumes of rain, not from permanent locations such as lakes, rivers, etc.

1 Like
6

Excerpt from Wash Post article:

Before Monday’s intense rainfall, the Dallas-Fort Worth area was in the midst of a substantial drought. All of Dallas County has been experiencing at least extreme drought for the past three months, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

At one point, Dallas had dozens of days above 100 degrees and 67 days in a row without any rainfall, a streak that was finally broken on Aug. 9. Now, in a shocking reversal, it is likely that this August will be Dallas’s wettest since 1899, the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore noted on Twitter.

We live about 30 miles north of downtown Dallas. Heavy flash floods in parts of DFW. Rained all around us. We may have gotten 1-2 inches - so spotty. Light rain continues as I type. It’s about over.

7

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02082022/flooding-floodin….

Every year heavy rainfall and consequent flooding can impact up to a million people in different parts of Bangladesh. But the impact of the 2022 floods has been catastrophic, causing over 100 deaths, and destroying paddy fields, fish ponds and livestock. “Seventy-five thousand hectres of paddy and 300,000 hectares of other crops, including maize and vegetables critical to the population’s nutrition, have been damaged,” said Islam.

More than 1.2 million people in the country remain in need of key humanitarian assistance, after which aid organizations will begin a “recovery response” that will last at least a year and cost $58 million. On July 14, the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund allocated $5 million for flood relief in the country, bringing the total available funding to $12 million—20 percent of what the agency has identified as needed.

But while it has been hit the hardest by floods this year, Bangladesh is not alone. Flash floods and urban flooding caused by heavy rainfall have taken lives and extensively damaged property in India and Pakistan as well.

Jaak

2 Likes
8

So my question is: where is it raining?

Dallas

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/08/22/dallas-texa…

9

Precipitation has changed (more, but generally NOT distributed over a significantly large area) over the past decades, as overall temperatures have also gotten warmer.

Oddly enough, Adler et al. found that during the satellite era (1979 on) “No overall significant trend is noted in the global precipitation mean value…However, there is a pattern of positive and negative trends across the planet with increases over tropical oceans and decreases over some middle latitude regions.”
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-017-9416-4

Nguyen et al. found precipitation increases in 96 countries and decreases in 104. Their maps show increases over most of Asia, Australia, Europe and non-tropical Africa.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/4/bams-d-…

DB2

10

So my question is: where is it raining? I mean, I would think there should be some areas where rainfalls are extremely above average, or has the whole world stopped getting rainfall (snowfall)?

They just reopened parts of Death Valley that were closed due to a 1000 year flash flood a couple of weeks ago.

This was probably an attempt by Mother Nature to lower the temperature in a place that regularly sets all-time high temps.

https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/news/death-valley-experiences…

Mike

11

What is needed is a way to collect that water where it falls and move it

We already have that; they’re called mountains, valleys, and rivers. They’ve been there for tens of thousands of years. Why, suddenly, is all this “extra snow” you talk about not showing up in the snowpack that melts into Lake Mead?

I understand there are going to be variations, with a (likely) bell curve distribution where there are even a few outliers of severe drought (or floods), but it seems “things are different now”. That is because (?) 1. Better reporting so we know more 2. Actual climate changes 3. Long term Milankovitch weather cycles 4. Other?

So either we are outlier territory (Anasazi, dust bowl, etc.) or something else is going on, and it’s covering a vast swath of the country. (I’m going to stipulate that a good portion of the water problem in the southwest is “demand” induced: too many people using too much water too wantonly, but even if that were brought under control the numbers would still be off.)

I have poo-pooed the idea in the past of transporting Great Lakes water to the area, but I’m starting to wonder if I was too hasty. There would be vast obstacles, of course, the Rockies merely one of them, but then we used to do great things. We built 3,000 miles of canals in the early 1800’s largely by hand (until the railroads crushed the canals economically). We built railroads through a thousand miles of wilderness. We built a nuclear bomb. We landed mankind on the moon.

The Great Lakes are among the largest reserves of fresh water on the planet, and perhaps there could be a way to combine the ancient spirit of “working together”, combating the “government can’t do it” meme, and solving a problem that looks to be ever more serious with every passing year?

It took 100 years - and the involvement of government - to get up the gumption to dig the Erie Canal and change America; we don’t have the luxury of that much time to figure out how to help the west and, by extension (agriculture, for instance) the rest of us too.

Oh, a very brief history of canals: https://www.ushistory.org/us/25a.asp

4 Likes
12

So my question is: where is it raining?

Our little desert town in southern Utah just suffered $10 million in damage from monsoon caused flooding. No one remembers a flood like that here.

13

I have poo-pooed the idea in the past of transporting Great Lakes water to the area, but I’m starting to wonder if I was too hasty.

I can envision going over the southern part of the Rockies in New Mexico. I think the low point in the continental divide is somewhere around there and a bit over 4000 feet. You’d still need a lot of electricity to pump water up and over that area. Coincidentally, there’s a lot of sunshine along that way. Maybe there’s some way to put that sunshine to use. Perhaps cover the canal with solar panels - produce electricity, reduce evaporation, and help keep rusted trucks and small children out all at the same time.

I’d tweak your blue sky thinking to look at the Mississippi river instead. I understand that the residents along that river occasionally have problems with too much river. Perhaps start somewhere around Memphis and go west from there.

Still doubt that it would be economically feasible. But I suspect the technology would be well within our current capabilities, leaving cost as the only hurdle. And perhaps land acquisition - which is just another cost. What good is eminent domain if you don’t put it too good use.

–Peter

14

I have poo-pooed the idea in the past of transporting Great Lakes water to the area, but I’m starting to wonder if I was too hasty.
—
I can envision going over the southern part of the Rockies in New Mexico.

It might be cheaper to build desalinization plants on the Pacific.

DB2

1 Like
15

“have poo-pooed the idea in the past of transporting Great Lakes water to the area, but I’m starting to wonder if I was too hasty. There would be vast obstacles, of course, the Rockies merely one of them, but then we used to do great things. We built 3,000 miles of canals in the early 1800’s largely by hand”

Of course, a goodly portion of Great Lakes water belongs to Canada…

Might want to be a good neighbor when divvying up shared resources?

1 Like
16

So either we are outlier territory (Anasazi, dust bowl, etc.) or something else is going on, and it’s covering a vast swath of the country. (I’m going to stipulate that a good portion of the water problem in the southwest is “demand” induced: too many people using too much water too wantonly, but even if that were brought under control the numbers would still be off.)

I’ve read conflicting things about this issue. Some have indicated that only a few, VERY few, people are using the water wantonly, but that they use many orders of magnitude more than the average person uses it. The most common examples are avocado and almond farmers. They use all that water mainly because “that’s how we’ve always done it” (i.e. they have a perpetual license to use all that water).

But, in general, I use the “golf course indicator” to determine if there’s a real water problem or not. If the golf courses are still green, then there is no real water problem. Once they go brown, there is a real water problem. After all, golf is just a game, pure recreation, so if there’s plenty of water for it, then we haven’t hit any real issues regarding water yet.

2 Likes