The 6 am comes after the 2 am for me.
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Just to add to the fun…
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I meant to respond to this.
Yes, but it has little to do with the mountain slopes. The storm is heading across the southern part of the CA Central Valley. The southern Sierras also dump much of their snow melt in that part of the valley. So that part of the valley will get a fair amount of rain directly from the storm. Then to the extent there is rain in the Sierras, that relatively warm rain will help melt more snow. That that combined rain/snow melt will also run down into the valley. Fortunately, there is some decent flood control in place for that runoff. But most of the flood control dams in CA are above their average levels. There is some capacity for this storm, but not a huge amount. It will all depend on how much rain falls as the storm heads north toward Idaho. I have seen a couple of mentions that dam managers are preparing for additional water releases if Hilary makes those necessary.
–Peter
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Thanks for the reply.
Semi-related Marshall Shepherd looks at the relationship between Hillary and the magnitude 5.1 earthquake near Ojai.
It doesn’t look like “hurriquake” will be entering the lexicon.
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Someone made a buck or two on Sharknado. If I were you, I’d patent “Hurriquake” asap.
Then, from 2013 to 2018, came the six “Sharknado” movies. “Sharknado 5” had a budget of USD 5m (2022 equivalent: USD 6m) and has made since then in excess of $789 million. Some reports state a total franchise gross of $4.5 billion , but this number is not easily verifiable.
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And in other unrelated news, the Russian lunar lander crashed. Anybody been watching 'For All Mankind"?
DB2
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Distantly relevant, there is increasing evidence that the Southernmost piece of the San Andreas Fault had more frequent and less destructive earthquakes in the more or less ancient past when there was a much larger lake where the Salton Sea now is. There is soft evidence that water from that lake percolated down and lubricated the fault, and that when the lake dried up the fault locked up. Enough water could enlarge the present Salton Sea enough to relubricate the fault and the first fault would be a big one…
david fb
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5 pm - ish update. METAR from the airport:
Light Rain, Wind is variable at 4 knots, 8 statute miles visibility, Few Clouds at 3,500 feet, Ceiling is Broken at 4,300 feet, Overcast at 7,000 feet, Temperature 25°C, Dewpoint 22°C, Altimeter is 29.44.
Pretty much matches my observations. Surprisingly little wind, particularly since the NHS puts us well inside the tropical storm strength wind area. Center of circulation (if there is still one) is almost due east of us now, not far from Palm Springs. Temp is up, dewpoint down - by one degree C each. In degrees F, it’s 77. Cooler than it has been over the last several days (well into the 80s) but very muggy, particularly since there is almost no wind. Barometer down a bit again.
Rain gauges showing about 1" total for the storm. Flood channel is down just slightly from my last observation. Plenty of room for more water should the storm actually show up.
The rain does seem to be slowing down. Right outside my office desk is the spot were roughly 1/3 of my roof drains. (Kinda complicated - my office is in what used to be a breezway between the house and garage. So this space sits in a valley between the original part of the house and the garage. So half of the garage and 1/4 of the house plus the added space under roof all drain to here.) Anyway, the drainage off of the roof I can see has slowed down quite a bit. In a bad downpour, it comes off in a 3 to 4 foot wide sheet. Never saw that at any time today. It’s currently down to a handful of steady drips off the roof - which translates to “not much rain”.
Any attempt at the reflooding of Lake Peter in the backyard has failed miserably. Where there used to be small spot with the tiniest bit of standing water, its now fully drained. All seeped in to the ground, I suspect, as there’s no where for it to run off until it get to 2 or 3 inches deep. On the bright side, that’s good news for the lemon tree, which only gets watered when provided by nature (and perhaps the occasional coyote jumping the fence).
So that’s it for now. Still waiting for those storm winds to make an appearance.
–Peter
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“I have also spent a few minutes sitting outside under our cheap imitation porch (which isn’t so much a porch as an extended eaves over the front walk way) just relaxing and watching the rain. It’s a bit cooler than sitting in the house, and there’s just something peaceful about listening to the rain fall and the breeze rustle through the trees.”
I luv sitting on my covered porch in the midst of a heavy rainstorm ! Actually happens quite a bit here, but I can imagine it’s a real treat when you live in an arid ( or semi-arid, I have no idea what the SoCal climate is ) climate. Here’s hoping that it continues to just another night for all of you out in Cali !
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We’re a desert. Perhaps a damp one, as we get an average of 14" of rain a year in Orange County. Close to the cost, fog is common in the winter. So maybe that’s semi-arid.
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Intermediate update. And color me confused. METAR for roughly 6:30:
Light Rain, Wind from 150° at 20 knots with gusts to 31 knots, 10 statute miles visibility, Ceiling is Broken at 1,300 feet, Overcast at 1,800 feet, Temperature 24°C, Dewpoint 22°C, Altimeter is 29.48.
Wind from 150? One freaking fifty??!!??
Let’s review. Winds spin counter clockwise around a cyclone in the norther hemisphere. [consults globe] Yep northern hemisphere. [consults NHC storm track] Storm center is now to the northeast of my location. So draw a line from the storm center to my location. Winds would be roughly perpendicular to that line, and if I faced the storm center, would be blowing from my left to my right. Give or take a fair amount, but that’s a starting point. The winds are exactly opposite what I’d expect. And you can see it clearly in the clouds.
But at least there are winds. Nothing really damaging at my location so far, but definitely some real wind.
I was getting ready to complain that I went through a tropical storm with no winds. The wind finally showed up, I guess.
Maybe its just confused winds as the storm peters out and comes to an end over land. [shrug]
Oh - still very light rain. Flood channel is down some more. Forgot to check rain gauges. I’ll do that next time around. Sun is setting.
–Peter
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News from several counties North of you.
About 3 hours ago: Emergency alert for Tulare & Fresno counties - be alert for rain and flash floods.
Further North (Merced Co.): Dark clouds, muggy with temps in the 90s, an occasional warm breeze (very different from Feb/Mar when wind picked up and the rains showed up … in force)
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San Diego county report:
There was a light rain here all day, which continues to the present time (7:00 pm). It wasn’t a strong rain, but it was consistent. Total accumulations I am seeing on the internet are mostly somewhere between 0.67 and 1.5 inch. The rain will probably continue till around midnight, so the final totals could be a little higher.
Winds were much lighter than previously predicted. There was just a gentle breeze for most of the day. Once the “eye” of the storm passed, the breeze did pick up, to maybe 10 to 20 mph, but that should die down as the night progresses.
A tornado warning was issued for the Alpine area this afternoon. This is on the eastern edge of San Diego city, in the central part of the county. I haven’t seen anything about damage.
Overall, I am trying to see the positive side of Hilary. The August through October months are usually when the hot, dry Santa Ana winds kick up, which heightens the wildfire danger. Soaking things down with an inch of rain will green up the vegetation a little, so it isn’t as dry as kindling. Things may dry out again in a few weeks, but right now the fire danger is lower.
- Pete
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Probably last update for the day. METAR:
Light Rain and Mist, Wind from 210° at 13 knots with gusts to 20 knots, 2 statute miles visibility, Ceiling is Overcast at 500 feet, Temperature 22°C, Dewpoint 20°C, Altimeter is 29.64.
The wind has swung around to coming from the SSW, rather than SSE. Closer to what I’d expect, but still odd. But the NHC has an explanation. They translated the center of the storm from Palm Springs to LA. Voila! Winds make sense. A fast move of that distance in that direction seems unlikely. So was the previous report of the center close to Palm Springs wrong? Or did the storm sort of fall apart and there is no real center of circulation any more? Who knows? But the current NHC positioning makes a lot more sense to me based on what I see out the windows.
Rain gauges are up to about 1.5", although the rain has stopped for the time being. Flood channel getting pretty low again. Local winds are in rough agreement with the airport METAR. A quick run around the homestead shows the worst damage to be one bit of my grape vine runners no longer attached to the overhead spot it was in. It’s now hanging down in my the walk way along the side of my house. I think I’ll be foregoing any insurance claims and simply trim it off in the morning. Unless I tie it back into place. I’ll need some daylight to make such impactful decisions.
Other than the temperature, this wasn’t much different from a typical winter storm. I’m used to the temps being in the 50s for this kind of rain, not the mid to upper 70s. However, on the rain front, it was pretty darn good. We never got any downpours, but the rain was steady and non-stop all day - about 14 hours or so. Winter storms rarely produce that kind of rain. They usually dribble a bit of rain on and off for a while, then dump a whole bunch of rain in a very short time, and finish with a bit of dribbling again. This steady rain performance is impressive.
I may give a wrap up in the morning, especially if there are any overnight activities that wake me up. The forecast on my phone shows some decent chances for rain throughout the night until about 6 am.
And again to be clear, this was my local experience. I’m sure people inland from me got a whole lot more rain and wind and serious flooding - and there may be a bit more to come as the storm heads off to places north. The Central Valley, in particular, is a bit vulnerable to flooding with all of the snow melt they’ve been dealing with this spring and summer. And there were certainly more issues to the south, particularly in Mexico. I have seen a few clips of some really nasty flooding there. My thoughts are with those folks who are dealing with the effects of this historic storm.
–Peter
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Thanks Peter and everyone else
Here in central Mexico we experienced a distant echo of what Pete described. Normally here most of our rain in August comes in the form of monsoon storms of varied strengths. This rain system was almost continuous, of medium intensity, and was steady steady for a couple of hours.
Good night everybody.
david fb
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14" ain’t no desert. Rome (Italy) gets 10" a year. Tucson (Arizona) gets less than 5".
DB2
Just a quick wrap up. Weather back to mostly normal. Still a bit humid this morning, but the air is definitely drying out back to a more typical feeling. My rain gauges showed about 2 1/4" of rain in my back yard - in line with the predictions of 2" - 4" for the storm. We had a bit more rain overnight, although not enough to interrupt my sleep. A brief walk around the homestead showed no areas of concern. Put all of the hanging decor back up in the yard while I was at it.
All in all, no real problems from the storm. Most preparations were likely a bit of overkill for us. On the other hand, the cross over between hurricane prep and earthquake prep is pretty significant - especially in the area of food, water, first aid supplies, and similar things that help you survive for a couple of days while waiting for help to arrive. So that was not at all wasted effort. It’s been too long since I’ve evaluated our earthquake prep, so looking at those things was time well spent.
–Peter
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Just want to point out that this is the ideal outcome for these events. Government warns of the worse case scenario, everyone over-prepares, and then there is a bit of a let down after the event.
Much better than the converse that occurred in Maui. The system worked in California.
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There’s also the issue of mass communication. Warnings need to get out, but the best ways to get those warnings out are via communication methods that encompass a lot more people than those likely to be affected. That’s really clear in the Los Angeles Metro area. The warnings probably weren’t going to affect close to half the people in the listening area. But the word still needs to get out. Further, some folks unlikely to be affected may be able to help out those more likely to be affected.
So the wide spread warnings are good, but always need to be listened to carefully to see where they apply.
–Peter
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