11 minute video at link:
https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/if-china-invades-taiwan-what-would-japan-do/
If the US decides to engage, it will have to be from US bases in Japan. Those bases would be attacked by China. Japan would likely respond. It is uncertain whether a US-Japan coalition would defeat China.
That would drag AUKUS into it. China would lose. The last projections I saw (CSIS) was that China would lose pretty much it’s entire navy. We would lose 2 supercarriers, and some other craft. Of course, that was last year (2023 -I think). In five years? Who knows. They are building their navy rapidly.
Should Japan not fight? Instead fighting another day when China is stronger?
Where’s the logic in the question?
You only fight when you have a reasonable chance of winning. I don’t think “Japan vs China” is anywhere close to an even match.
A lot of Indians fought the US cavalry and white settlers. I don’t think they had a reasonable chance of winning.
DB2
That’s kind of my point. They fought, they lost. Maybe there was no other possible strategy, but for Japan, there is: resign yourself to it, carry on.
Don’t waste a lot of blood and treasure on an hopeless outcome.
But it is the West v China, not just Japan.
Japan didn’t resign itself in WW2 even in the last year of the war. There are clearly other factors involved.
DB2
Japan was, at the time, run entirely by aggressive militarists with the benign neglect of the Emperor. That’s not the case today. Further I suspect it’s possible that we would abandon the effort in short order, preferring to pick on weak countries in our own hemisphere than strong ones 10,000 miles away. Military pragmatism and all.
But we won’t engage. I firmly believe this administration is trying to break the world into the three powers of “1984”. This is one reason why we are actively trying to break NATO apart.
I don’t think, in 2026 and in light of our recent behavior, we can depend on other countries to quickly jump to our aid. There is a non-zero chance that the UK and Australia DO NOT respond to an aggressive China. In reading AUKUS, I don’t see that it contains a triggering act like Article 5 (which is also non-binding) for NATO.
We very likely have the military might to beat China in a non-nuclear war but I am far less convinced that we have the political and electoral will to spend thousands of US lives defending Taiwan or to deter China.