OT-ish: Self driving levels

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
21

That is because there is no effective alternatives to a car in most of the world, particularly the US. Far less need for a car in many European cities–because they have a good non-car transit system.

Actually, the privately owned car is mainly a status symbol in most of the world. As you pointed out, there is diminished requirement of a car for both inter city and intra city transportation in Euro. But this is also true in most Asian countries (the speed and efficiency of Japanese and Chinese “bullet” trains is famous. Even in poorer countries, like India or Indonesia or the Philippines, the use of taxis and similar ride-share vehicles (jeepnies, mini-buses, etc.) is ubiquitous.

We, in the US have, under the incessant marketing of the automotive, petroleum, tire companies, as well as automobile manufacturing and teamster unions, have for over six decades been deemphasizing our light-rail intra-city and railroad inter-city transport systems. We, as a society, have, once more, taken a unique direction which few other countries have elected to copy. As a view of China’s solution demonstrates, our explanation of physical size of country, number of people traveling, large cities, etc. are simply rationalizations of our irrational world-view.

Jeff
(Who frequently opts for the train abroad and uses mass transit both abroad and at home within cities where that is realist - sorry LA -, but still flies in thee US over distances where the train would be preferable, but would be faced with a lack of an economic solution at the far-end train station).

1 Like
22

As a view of China’s solution demonstrates, our explanation of physical size of country, number of people traveling, large cities, etc. are simply rationalizations of our irrational world-view.

You left out population density:


       Population density
        people/sq km
China     149
US         34

DB2

23

Actually, the privately owned car is mainly a status symbol in most of the world. As you pointed out, there is diminished requirement of a car for both inter city and intra city transportation in Euro. But this is also true in most Asian countries (the speed and efficiency of Japanese and Chinese “bullet” trains is famous. Even in poorer countries, like India or Indonesia or the Philippines, the use of taxis and similar ride-share vehicles (jeepnies, mini-buses, etc.) is ubiquitous.

That is a function of wealth, not desire. Jitney and bus traffic was prevalent in the US too, especially among minority communities until they could afford their own vehicles.

If people didn’t want to own their own cars, why is car ownership still growing in every part of the world? In Europe, especially in Eastern Europe which was deprived until recently, in India, in China, automobile ownership is growing fast - faster than in the US (where we are already at almost 2 vehicles per household.)

In fact I would challenge you to find a single country anywhere in the world where the per-capita ownership of private vehicles is decreasing (absent economic cataclysm) even in those countries with the very best public transit and super speed trains. There’s a reason for that: convenience over cost.

That I why I am unimpressed by the prospect of roving fleets of robotaxis ready at your doorstep “in only 5 minutes.” I have one at my disposal in 30 seconds, and more to the point the seat is already adjusted, the mirrors are in place, my sunglasses are right where I left them, there’s a bottle of hand sanitizer in the center console if I should need it, and the radio pre-sets are tuned to the stations I want to listen to, not some yapping talk show that the prior troglodyte vehicle user has them set to.

When you have enough wealth to buy your wants, people will own cars except in unusual circumstances, as when they live on the 28th floor and parking is $1000/mo. Yes, there will be a robotaxis market, but I expect it will be somewhere around the combined size of the current car rental companies, including Ubers, etc. and perhaps a slice more, which is pretty small compared to the overall size of the private ownership market.

I acknowledge that having a vehicle drive you to your destination without driver input would be quite convenient, but there is no reason robotaxis can do it but my privately owned vehicle cannot. The tech technologies are ever-plunging in price, and the actuators, cameras, etc. aren’t far behind.

1 Like
24

Remember: The self-driving cars can also be automated delivery vehicles for many businesses, so need need to pick stuff up and bring it home. It is delivered wherever/whenever you chose for delivery.

For the longest time Amazon’s biggest problem was “the last mile”. That was up until they made a deal with the post office to handle it, even if the package was transported to the local P.O. by other means.

But nobody has yet explained to me how “self-driving” delivery vehicles are going to solve the “last 100 feet” problem: i.e. from the curb to the door. Or are they just going to leave your groceries out at the curb?

Dunno, but this seems like a difficult issue. Not insurmountable, perhaps, but not so easy, either.

1 Like
25

The self-driving cars can also be automated delivery vehicles for many businesses

I get why this is attractive to the business, but as a customer I am going to be p*ssed if I have to go out in the rain to the street to unload the vehicle when previously the driver brought it to the door.

Perhaps once we have robots that can bring it to the door.

2 Likes
26

I am going to be p*ssed if I have to go out in the rain to the street to unload the vehicle when previously the driver brought it to the door.

Then add a protected spot for the delivery vehicle to wait while you unload it.

27

Then add a protected spot for the delivery vehicle to wait while you unload it.

Not possible in a great many circumstances and undesirable in a great many more.

1 Like
28

Not possible in a great many circumstances and undesirable in a great many more.

Buy a humanoid robot from Tesla to carry an umbrella.

Buy another humanoid robot from Tesla to carry the stuff. It will be grateful to have someone to hold the umbrella while his hands are busy carrying the stuff.

The Captain

1 Like
29

The top end of the luxury market already doesn’t need a robotaxi – they have drivers.
Who also act as security.

This is not true at all around here. I make it a practice to look at high-end luxury cars (because I like looking at high-end luxury cars) I see driving around, and there are plenty here, it’s a huge market for them, and almost universally they have one person in them driving it. And it’s almost always the owner driving it, not a driver/security person. That mostly happens only on TV. I did once see a long wheelbase Maybach with a driver. And all the limos, of course, have drivers. But the fancy high-end Bentleys, Rolls Royces, etc rarely do. And the high-end sports cars never do. Just yesterday while driving to the game, we saw two Ferraris, a Lamborghini (one sports car and one SUV), and a McLaren, and a nice Bentley Continental GT, and a gorgeous Rolls Royce with a guy that looked very much like Eddie Murphy driving it. I wasn’t driving, so I could look around the whole trip (in traffic of course, because the game has to start immediately after rush hour).

1 Like