OT: Market Capitalization and GTR1

Investing Strategies Mechanical Investing
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My son said there was a post on TikTok that said the US market capitalization has gone down more in this downturn than the dot com bust or GFC. It was not adjusted for inflation.

Can someone post a link that calculates daily US market capitalization using GTR1? I am interested to see the accuracy of the statement.

Craig

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A S&P 500 chart answers this.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/interactive-char…

dot com bust: about 1500 to 900
GFC: about 1500 to 800
2022 correction: about 4800 to 4000

Yes the drop is more on a linear scale, but it is less on a log scale. Percent change is less. GDP is higher now than 20 years ago, and so percent change is what is important. 20% drop makes a Bear.

gSPY includes dividends.

https://gtr1.net/2013/?~gSPY_20140116_rgearyiii:lf-1lp-1h1::…

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Borisnand

Thanks for the post, but I am wondering about total market cap (NYSE, Nasdaq and OTC). Is there a way to sum marketcap?

Craig

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My son said there was a post on TikTok

If he saw it on TikTok it must be true. :wink:

Has anyone invented a TikTok Indicator yet?

Elan

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I get $46.4T using the gtr1 link below. This is close to what this website reports:

“As of May 13, 2022 we calculate the Buffett Indicator as: Aggregate US Market Value: $43.0T”
https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator…

The S&P 500 market cap is now about $35.6T, about 77% of the total market cap.

“USD 13.5 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the index, with indexed assets comprising approximately USD 5.4 trillion of this total (as of Dec. 31, 2020). The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.”
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#ove…

Define {sumMC}
Create [MktCapWt]: [[Actual closing Price; share_lag=1 days; quote_lag=1 days]*[[Security Type; lag=1 days] == 30,31 ? [Security Shares Outstanding; lag=1 days] : [Com Shs Outstanding (Adj Company Total); lag=1 days]]]
Create [sumMC]: [Sum [MktCapWt] at step5]
step0: [Security Type; lag=1 days] == 10,11,12,18,48,71,72
step1: [MktCapWt] > 0
step2: [Rank by [Share Class #; lag=1 days] (Asc), grouped by [Permanent Company ID; lag=1 days], at step2] == 1
step3: [Exchange Code; lag=1 days] == 1,2,3
step4: [Mkt Days Since Security Opened; lag=1 days] >= 20
step5: [sumMC] > 0; Cash When None

This includes Companies Incorporated Outside The US (styp.a=12), and LPs (71!72).
This is for NYSE, NYSE Mkt, and Nasdaq listed stocks: excd.a = 1!2!3.
gtr1 does not include OTC stocks.

To include ADRs: styp.a = 10!11!12!18!30!31!48!71!72

https://gtr1.net/2013/?~sumMC:h1::styp.a:et10!11!12!18!48!71…

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Using borisnand’s GTR1 sumMC (always impressed with what he puts together).
I checked the Detailed Report and Signal Values ran and then downloaded the report. .And:

For the last big Bear the max was on 20071010 to the min on 20090310 the drawdown between them was 1.2218 E13.
From the max on 20211109 to the min on 20220512 the drawdown has been 1.15463 E13

So even without considering inflation this isn’t as large as the ’08 drawdown.

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Borisand

Thank you for providing the link. Really appreciated and enabled a good discussion with my son.

The current market capitalization drawdown is 48% of one year US GDP, the Dot Com drawdown was 58% of GDP at the time. Covid drawdown was 63% of GDP. Not sure what it means but interesting to me!

Thanks

Craig

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