So, seems plenty of room for expectations and stock price to rise… Then there is a big pipeline of other vaccines and drugs in development …
Look at Gilead, even with multiple blockbuster drugs, and their earnings didn’t suffer a cliff, yet the stock price suffered, multiples compressed. The earnings cliff post COVID is real, they don’t seems to have any other meaningful revenue stream. The market will re-price them in heartbeat. Stay close to the story.
Look at Gilead, even with multiple blockbuster drugs, and their earnings didn’t suffer a cliff, yet the stock price suffered, multiples compressed. The earnings cliff post COVID is real, they don’t seems to have any other meaningful revenue stream. The market will re-price them in heartbeat. Stay close to the story.
I want to be an optimist like Ben but I have to admit I really have no idea what’s going to happen. Any prediction I made about anything related to COVID (including stocks) has been pretty far off.
That’s why I’d really only get into something like this if it was ridiculously cheap (with the future uncertainty), which seems I’ve missed the boat on at least for now.
I want to be an optimist like Ben but I have to admit I really have no idea what’s going to happen. Any prediction I made about anything related to COVID (including stocks) has been pretty far off.
That’s why I’d really only get into something like this if it was ridiculously cheap (with the future uncertainty), which seems I’ve missed the boat on at least for now.
Yeah, there is a lot of uncertainty, for sure. It’s got a significant speculative aspect, to go along with the value-y aspect. Trailing 12 month earnings make it look very cheap (PE 6), but those are in the rear-view. Next 12 months earnings still look pretty cheap (PE 13 by what I consider a conservative estimate.) After that, much more speculative. Will Covid continue on as a very significant health problem for the indefinite future? That’s my best estimate, and a lot of experts think so. Fat profits will draw in more competition and reduce margins, though, so Covid alone won’t likely support the stock price for too many years. But I’m betting on the mRNA technology and the management to come up with many more compelling applications.
In addition to the Covid vaccine(s), they have flu, adult RSV, and CMV vaccines all in Phase 3 testing. No guarantee any become significant earners, but they each could. I’ve read some commentary saying their flu vax doesn’t offer enough differentiation/low enough side effects to be a strong competitor in a crowded market, but it’s been good enough to continue development so far. The other two, there’s no effective vaccine yet, so that could be big if Moderna is among the first.
Zika, and cancer (not universal cancer, unfortunately) vaccines are in stage two, along with a heart therapeutic.
Pipeline: https://www.modernatx.com/research/product-pipeline?
Volatile Moderna stock has dropped 27% from the peak of it’s recent run-up, August 4th. It’s dropping again today despite their announcement that Canada has exercised an option to buy an additional $4.5 million worth of their new bi-valent Omicron booster, contingent on that shot being approved by their regulatory agency. Moderna’s Omicron booster was the first targeting the Omicron variant to win approval by a government, as the UK announced recently.
A piece of somewhat negative recent news contributed to the decline, I suppose: that the US government will no longer be purchasing vaccines for distribution next year, instead letting that transition to the private market. Moderna has been anticipating this and claims to have already built a strong marketing and distribution operation targeting insurance companies and pharmacies so that their vaccine will continue to be widely available.
They also named a new CFO, which generated some negative press, as that position has shuffled through a few people recently.
So, there’s been some news, but nothing that I’d say materially changed the company’s prospects. With the price drop, trailing PE is back down to 4.5. Consensus earnings per share estimates for the current quarter have dropped from ~$7.5 down to ~$5.2. I suppose that’s been driving a lot of the selling. Estimates for the next quarter have risen a bit from ~$7.25 to ~$8. Analysts still expect ~$13 earnings the next two quarters from a stock currently selling for $143.
Looking ahead more than 2 quarters the picture gets a lot fuzzier. Consensus estimates for 2023 are for just $7.90 in earnings per share, but how that pans out will depend on what Covid does over the next year. If we see a couple new variants drive new surges of infections, which remain roughly as dangerous as the current virus, then this time next year countries around the world will be gearing up for another round of boosters for the fall season and I expect earnings will come in a lot higher than $7.90 for the year. This seems the most likely course of events to me.
If Covid mutates into something less virulent, more like the common cold than a vicious flu, then the vaccine business will fall off dramatically, and I don’t know if Moderna would have positive earnings at all until/if they commercialize another major drug. If, God forbid, the virus mutates into something more virulent, earnings could spike even higher than they have been the last two years.
Canadian news: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-moderna-supply-12-mln-11384…
UK approval: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medicines-healthcare-products…
US changes: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-to-end-purchase-of-covid-1…
CFO shuffle: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-names-perkinelmer-exe…
Canada has exercised an option to buy an additional $4.5 million worth of their new bi-valent Omicron booster,
Minor correction, additional 4.5 million doses.
Canada has exercised an option to buy an additional $4.5 million worth of their new bi-valent Omicron booster,
Minor correction, additional 4.5 million doses.
I do not know what you think of Dr. Joseph Mercola, but he has this to say about the bivalent injections: they are already out of date.
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2022/08/…
I do not know what you think of Dr. Joseph Mercola…
A good rule of thumb looking for medical data: if a web site doesn’t end in .gov, ignore it.
OK, maybe a few more. I’m also OK with Nature. Cell. I hear good things about Lancet, NEJM.
Youtube and self publishing don’t really count.
That’s not to say that what the fellow says is wrong, or right, but I have absolutely no confidence either way.
The intersection between the internet and medical information is a very strange world, and an MD isn’t reason to give credence. He doesn’t have an MD.
A little “fact checked” icon on the page is, if anything, perhaps a red flag : )
The sub-headline “Nothing About the COVID Jabs Makes Sense” is more than a little off-putting.
As is the fact that he’s an osteopath. If he were a thread, I’d definitely click “ignore”.
Again, maybe he’s right about some things, but it’s probably something that one should not read.
It might accidentally affect your world view like a Facebook post or a screaming guy in the subway.
Some screaming guys in the subway are insightful. But it’s not where one looks for reliable insight.
Jim
If it quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
If it ducks like a quack…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Mercola
Tells you a lot about what you need to know about Mercola
Addendum to my post.
“ During the COVID-19 pandemic, Mercola spread misinformation about the virus and pseudoscientific anti-vaccine misinformation on social media platforms;[11][12][13] researchers have identified him as the “chief spreader of coronavirus misinformation online”.[11][14][15][16] He has been warned on many occasions by the FDA for selling unapproved health products, including supposed treatments for COVID-19.[15] Mercola was banned from YouTube…”
I’ve been following Mercola’s writings for over 20 years. Not because I’m a fan but because a relative who I care deeply for is. My assessment? He is correct even less often than a broken clock. A person could probably add years to their life simply by doing the opposite of everything he recommends.
Jim’s rule of thumb works well for this guy.
If it quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
If it ducks like a quack…
If you Google him, this is one of the top results.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/16/NYT-Presents/joseph-merco…
I’ve heard about him, and none of it was comforting. I think he has a bunch of “clinics” in our area.
Wheezy
Another complicating factor in the Moderna story: lawsuits about intellectual property.
In the news today: Moderna is suing Pfizer and BioNTech over supposed infringement of Moderna’s IP: “Moderna said in a statement that Pfizer and BioNTech infringed on patents filed between 2010 and 2016 that covered its mRNA technology. Moderna sued in U.S. District Court in Massachusetts and the Regional Court of Düsseldorf in Germany, where BioNTech is based.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/business/moderna-covid-va…
And, Moderna has been sued themselves for supposed patent infringement as announced in recent months.
I don’t know a thing about the various parties’ legal standing in these measures, adding to the speculative element of my holding.
I suppose I should stop posting about the company here … I started because of it’s seeming value based on recent earnings, but I guess it really doesn’t fit in the Buffett/Munger/Graham mold of investing at all because of the uncertainty of projecting future earnings.
I recently finished reading The Intelligent Investor. Good stuff.
I suppose I should stop posting about the company here
I have enjoyed your posts. I understand that synthetic RNA is paradigm shifting technology
but I have not heard of any thing beyond vaccines. That is why I have stayed away from this stock.
Maybe flu and Covid are enough to give them recurring revenue.
I suppose I should stop posting about the company here
We need a generic purpose board to discuss these ideas. I am not sure TMF allows opening any new boards at this time.
So the only alternative is post it here. Given the # of response there is a wider participation, so I guess it is okay.
I have enjoyed your posts. I understand that synthetic RNA is paradigm shifting technology
but I have not heard of any thing beyond vaccines. That is why I have stayed away from this stock.
Maybe flu and Covid are enough to give them recurring revenue.
Thanks, dividends20. Guess it’s not hurting anything to have this thread here. It is something of a value stock, seemingly, for now anyway.
Here’s their pipeline: https://www.modernatx.com/research/product-pipeline
In Phase 3 testing, aside from flu and Covid, they have:
RSV vaccine (respiratory syncytial virus) targeting older adults for this respiratory virus that is dangerous for the elderly.
CMV vaccine (Cytomegalovirus) a herpes like virus that is latent in a lot of people and can cause neurological problems in newborn infants if they get it from their mothers during birth, which this vaccine aims to prevent that transmission, as I understand it.
So those could potentially be earners before too long. Not mega-blockbusters like the Covid vaccine has been, but they aren’t aimed at tiny niches either.
Lots of other stuff in earlier phases of testing. Most of the drugs in the pipeline are vaccines, but some are therapeutics, too.
CMV vaccine (Cytomegalovirus) a herpes like virus that is latent in a lot of people and can cause neurological problems in newborn infants if they get it from their mothers during birth, which this vaccine aims to prevent that transmission, as I understand it.
I used to give blood every couple of months. I have donated over 6 gallons of the stuff. I am CMV negative. I did not even know just what CMV was. I do not think there was a CMV vaccine in those days. Even if there were, you would hive to give it to the mother to be soon enough.
One day I went into the blood bank and there was a man extremely upset walking around like a chicken with his head cut off. I asked my my technician what his problem was. It seems his wife had just given birth to twins and their blood was incompatible with the kids (maybe it had CMV in it). To oversimplify, they had to have all their blood removed and replaced with blood they were compatible with. They surely do not remove the bad blood and replace it. I happen to be a universal donor (O-negative). When donating to newborns, you must be CMV negative because the newborns’ immune system cannot deal with CMV.
I will never know if his kids got any of my blood or not, but they very well might have.
Moderna stock saw a big pop yesterday when they got two pieces of good news:
Their Omicron based booster was approved by the FDA for use by kids age 6-17.
Merck will pay Moderna $250 million to exercise its option for personalized cancer vaccines including mRNA-4157/V940 and will collaborate on development and commercialization…Merck and Moderna will share costs and any profits equally under this worldwide collaboration.
Moderna has been trading at an absurdly low trailing PE, as the market apparently expects a massive contraction in revenue from their Covid vaccine along with questionable prospects for other profitable products.
I’m bullish. A more than 10% pop the last two days makes it a little less attractive than it was recently, but this still seems like a good price at $134.7/share and trailing PE of just 4. But, it is a speculative stock in large part. I believe Covid will continue to be a lucrative earner for them for years, though not at nearly the level it was last year, and I believe in the team after they executed so amazingly well on the Covid vaccine after having no prior commercial product.
This was what I was hoping for with the paradigm shifting synthetic RNA. The $250m however is a relatively small bet and signals that we are long ways away from anything useful, probably years away.
Still super exciting. Go big or go home !
How does this thread continue from the old boards to the new uninterrupted? Why isn’t it happening with all old board threads?
I think you can pull up any old thread, at least within the last year (those were ported over), and add a reply.