Today, my wife asked me, are you taking second booster shot? I said, not planning to. Looks like nobody is taking. So if nobody is taking booster shots, what happens to Moderna?
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Took my 2nd booster on Friday. The demand for the 2nd booster isn’t strong at all. made my appointment same day 2 hours after I went on line.
Today, my wife asked me, are you taking second booster shot? I said, not planning to. Looks like nobody is taking. So if nobody is taking booster shots, what happens to Moderna?
If Moderna was expected to make $12.2b in profit every year like it did last year, it would be worth a lot more than its current market cap of $64b, right? Or its $53b enterprise value, net of cash. And since they project that their revenue this year ($19b) will be similar to 2021 ($18b), there will be another huge cash infusion this year, so their enterprise value maybe be down to $40b or so by the end of the year.
And then, yes, demand will fall off a cliff. But not to zero. I also don’t want a second booster, but I will probably get my covid shot every fall, maybe at the same time as I get my flu shot. I’m sort of fond of the idea of not taking a chance of getting really sick and having to be intubated. And Pfizer and Moderna have remarkably safe and effective vaccines, so I will probably want one of those two. If Moderna can keep a third of their covid revenue after 2022, and say, a quarter of their earnings (let’s say $3b), then they are reasonably valued as a cash cow. I don’t think that’s too unrealistic.
And of course, they may (or may not) come up with other successful vaccines.
So I’d say the market has got this about right. If I had to buy or sell short, I would be a buyer.
Pfizer is a similar story, except that they already had significant earnings ($10-15b) before covid, and we have to figure out what to do with their $22b figure from last year. The other twist with Pfizer, is that they have their antiviral Paxlovid, which they will be able to sell a lot of, to people at high risk of serious covid disease (older people, obese people, and people with other chronic diseases.) If Paxlovid makes up for lost covid vaccine sales (which it might), then they may keep making $22b a year for a long time, and be worth their 14x multiple.
dtb
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I think it is more likely that a recommendation for a second booster has greater take up in the fall (not unlike the flu vaccine).
Today, my wife asked me, are you taking second booster shot? I said, not planning to. Looks like nobody is taking.
I’ll take it eventually, but not now.
- I’m in my mid 50s and in good health with no co-morbidities.
- I got the first booster in early November, still less than 6 months past, so while my immunity from that booster is declining, it’s still probably pretty robust.
- Local and national Covid levels are fairly low.
All these add up to me deciding the risk/reward says for me to delay for now. If we start seeing another major wave building in the US, I’ll go ahead and get it. Otherwise I’ll get it with the flu vaccine this fall.
So if nobody is taking booster shots, what happens to Moderna?
Some potential upside in sales they’d talked about in the second half of the year may not materialize. They’re already locked into robust sales this year of about the same level as last year, though.
Longer term, Covid booster/annual vaccine sales will depend on the course of the disease. Does it become an ongoing threat like the flu but worse, in which waves of new variants sweep the country causing widespread disease and death? If so, vaccine sales will stay robust. Does the disease degenerate to something more like the flu, where a vaccine is strongly recommended for the old, but most healthy adults aren’t too worried about getting it? If so, sales will continue but at a greatly reduced level. Or if the virus mutates into something like the common cold maybe vaccine sales fall off a cliff.
Moderna didn’t get great results from Stage 2 testing of their first flu vaccine: it’s effective, probably a bit more so than current vaccines, but it causes more side effects, which I assume would make it not so popular assuming efficacy gains are not huge, which they don’t seem to be. They are beginning Stage 1/2 trials of two other flu vaccines, and they hope to offer a ‘pan-respiratory’ virus vaccine that would combine vaccines against multiple variants of flu and covid and other viral respiratory illnesses. If they can pull that off with good efficacy and acceptable side effects I could see it being quite popular, but that won’t be coming anytime soon.
They have a big pipeline of other vaccines and therapeutics in development. https://www.modernatx.com/research/product-pipeline
I’m still bullish on the company and the stock, but recent news hasn’t been great. They’re expected to apply any day for approval of their Covid vaccine at lower dosage for kids down to 6 months of age, which would be the first one approved for ages below 6 years. That would boost demand a bit.
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Where I live we are seeing only 3.5 cases per 100,000 per day. In a few days I’ll be headed for the south of France, near Jim’s place. They are seeing 200 cases per 100,000 per day. Darn right I got the second booster.
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If Moderna can keep a third of their covid revenue after 2022, and say, a quarter of their earnings (let’s say $3b)
Pre-COVID Vaccine revenue for PFE is something like $200 ~ $250 M, now we are expecting these firms to have multiple billion runrate? Is that realistic?
Separately, if people are not taking the second booster shot at expected rate what happens to their current year guidance?
I just received my second booster as I am 55yo in healthcare and will be headed to Omaha in a couple weeks. There certainly seems to be a lot less demand here in Georgia but my elderly patients seem more eager to receive the booster as was my 83yo mother. I agree interest should pick up in the Fall.
Separately, if people are not taking the second booster shot at expected rate what happens to their current year guidance?
From what I recall Moderna gave numbers for advanced purchase agreements (APAs) of $19 billion and for options to purchase for $3 billion in fiscal 2022, along with commentary that those numbers included $0 from the US, and they expected more purchases in the second half of the year. Since then they closed other significant purchase agreements with Japan and Switzerland to bump APAs up to $21 billion, while options agreements declined to $.5 billion.
The US seems to be moving forward with $10 billion in additional pandemic funding, which will include more vaccine purchases, IINM, so the reported numbers are likely to climb in the second half, as predicted, even if booster uptake isn’t particularly robust.
PR detailing clinical and program updates along with the news on updated APA numbers from March 24th: https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Moder…
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What’s the point of getting a second booster when it appears that these shots don’t have much of an effect on Covid?
In my area, even most people who got the original 2-dose shots are not getting even the 1st booster.
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Rayvt, your inference that the shots don’t have an effect on Covid may be right but they do have an effect on the individuals who get them. My nephew runs his family business right here in my town where he’s still buddies with many of his high school classmates. They are in the 50 range. Almost all got vaccinated, but many didn’t. His class had 200 graduates. Here’s the outcome:
Seems all of his friend got the virus.
Those that got vaccinated? No terrible issues, some still say there are small lintering issues…but small.
Those that didn’t get vaccinated? Two died; two still on oxygen.
Just facts for you. The two living on oxygen? No, they won’t admit making a mistake; they are believers that God did this to them for a reason…and of course that God will get them through it. Both have been turned down so far for lung transplants.
Life is great… if you can stand it.
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Your assertion isn’t backed up by the data.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7112e1.htm?s_cid=mm…
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Just facts for you. The two living on oxygen? No, they won’t admit making a mistake; they are believers that God did this to them for a reason…and of course that God will get them through it. Both have been turned down so far for lung transplants.
Life is great… if you can stand it.
Unfortunately, the folks that don’t get through it with the help of God don’t report back. We only hear from the ones that God saves.
Maybe God also knows the expression: God helps those that help themselves.
dtb
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I got 2 shots and booster from Pfe.
I have since had thyroid problems and my doctor can’t rule out the vaccine. As of now, nobody in my family has any interest in getting a second booster.
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The hospitalization and death rate is much lower for people who have been vaccinated and boosted. But I fully support your decision to volunteer to thin the herd.
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The hospitalization and death rate is much lower for people who have been vaccinated and boosted.
I agree with the former but not the latter.
2 doses gives you great protection against severe disease. There is very little gain from getting a 3rd or 4th dose.
However, antibody levels drop rapidly, a few months after any dose, so if you want to keep your antibody levels up (and keep up protection against getting an infection, you need to keep getting revaccinated.
If like me you would just as soon get the infection, because you are vaccinated, and because there is a relatively mild strain that doesn’t put most vaccinated people at any great risk, then you don’t bother with the booster. The way I see it, getting the infection now will likely protect you much better, with immunity against the whole virus, than just getting more and more immunity to the spike protein. People that somehow manage to escape getting a mild case of covid now expose themselves to the risk that the virus may mutate and render vaccine immunity useless.
So get the first 2 doses, if you are over 30 or so, and definitely if you are over 50 or have any serious chronic illness. And get boosters every 3-6 months if you really want to push off your covid infection into the future for some reason.
dtb
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https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/…
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/…
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2790595#:~….
“for some reason”
Reduced risk of infection, death and brain damage are my reasons for betting boosted. And a desire not to use up an ER bed that could save the life of a heart attack, stroke or car wreck victin.
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For opposing views, consider:
1.) https://rumble.com/vvfs66-pathways-to-vaccine-injury-with-as…
2.) https://rumble.com/vykk4z-do-not-be-afraid-for-i-am-with-you…
3.) https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mark-Skidmore-2/publica…
Rumble and Researchgate? Nice!
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I’m 62 and fit, no co-morbidities. I’ll get the 2nd booster to help combat chances of long-Covid. I’d be extremely disappointed in myself if I passed on the second booster, got Covid, and developed some long-covid effects.
Tails
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