Party of the people?

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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From Harry Enten (CNN):

DB2

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Yep. If Trump delivers on “No taxes on Tips, Social Security and Overtime”, the DEMs have nothing.

intercst

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Everyone wants a free ride. That is the big selling point of the tariffs: the revenue generated enables income tax cuts.

Of course, who benefits the most from SS being tax exempt? Higher income people, because low income people don’t pay Federal tax on SS now.

Steve

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Exactly! But if you don’t understand arithmetic, you won’t see that and think it’s a great deal. {{ LOL }}

Like Trump said way back in 2016, “We love the poorly educated.”

In 10 months at age 70, no taxes on SS will be almost as good for me as the 0% tax bracket on qualified dividends and capital gains.

intercst

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Dear Bob,

You are counting your chickens before 2026.

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If they did their own taxes, by hand, like I do, they would know if they pay tax on SS, or not. Or maybe the play is for those in their 50s and early 60s, who have not retired yet, so don’t know their SS will probably be exempt anyway?

Steve

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Something seems a little out of sorts to me.

Quinnipiac has a good reputation as a pollster, but we’ve also had some actual special elections (hard data) since Nov 2024.

In deep red FL, there were 2 House races which the Republicans won handily, but IIRC, the Democrats closed the voting gap (compared to Nov 2024) by about 10% in each race.

And the Trump administration must have had some polling that worried them enough to pull Stefanik’s nomination to be the U.N. ambassador.

Lastly, in a dead even state Wisconsin that Trump won by less than 1% a few months ago, a Democrat state Supreme Court candidate won the race by about 10%.

If the poll numbers are correct, wouldn’t the actual races been closer to, or even better for the Republicans, then the actual November 2024 results?

Or is something else going on?

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8

If this is to be trusted, thanks to ongoing liberation, public sentiment is finally starting to shift in a meaningful way.

We’ve had more polls come in that were fielded completely or mostly after Liberation Day. The trend is pretty clear at this point: Donald Trump is getting less popular. Here are a few of the most recent polls we’ve added to the average:

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Let me break this apart. Most people who rely on tips don’t pay income tax anyway, not that they realize that. Sure there are a few who make a ton of money that way (strippers, servants to the stars, etc.) but most of the waitresses at Waffle House and Olive Garden aren’t exactly rolling in it anyway. Taxi drivers, kids caddying golf, not exactly in the high brackets. And maybe worth mentioning that a lot of those tips, perhaps a majority, go unreported anyway, so not really a big gain. (Again, the math challenged will not realize this, but I handicap myself by using math a lot.)

If they remove the tax on SS then that will be a big win, at the cost of expanding the deficit even more, but since when was that a problem?

I’m a bit skeptical about the “overtime” provision because there would have to be some pretty fancy footwork to keep track of it, especially in the “self employed or sort of” category: landscaping contractors other other fields where the “hours” could be easily manipulated without rigid guidelines (and who is going to police that?)

On the other hand it all becomes moot if the economy hits recession, which a lot of people think is coming right about … 9, 8, 7, 6, ….

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Dear AW,

Power corrupts completely. In the US complete power gets rejected utterly.

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Nah, a year and a half is a long time in politics. But that’s the state of the hen house at present.

DB2

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Sometimes reality strikes. You will know it when you see it.