Some observations on PINS - plagiarized from this tweet string:…

Q4 revenue grew 76% year over year to $706 million.

2020 revenue grew 48% year over year to $1,693 million.

Global Monthly Active Users (MAUs) grew 37% year over year to 459 million.

* Revenue: $706 million vs $ $642.95M estimates

!!! “Our current expectation is that Q1 revenue will grow in the low-70% range year over year.”

* EPS $0.43 Beats $0.32 Estimate
* Sales $705.62M Beat $645.58M Estimate

Guidance for Q1 2021 of 70% revenue growth is a monster beat.

Guidance: ~$460M vs analyst estimates of $430M

This is critical to the “it will have to stop growing this fast” crowd. Q4 revenue growth: 76%
Q1 Guidance: ‘Low 70%’. Guys, it ain’t slowing down.

* ARPU up $29 yoy

* Net income (yes profits): 29% of revenue

* Adj EBITDA margins: 42% !!!

* Total international revenue was $123 million, increase of 145% year over year [But the “international market will never monetize…”

ARPU growth was massive:

* U.S. ARPU up 49% year over year.

* International ARPU up 67% year over year.

Adjusted EBITDA margins are, frankly, $MSFT like. These are huge numbers. (NOTE - there is a graph in the tweet for this showing the #s he’s referring to)

Revenue and MAUs are just exploding.

This is a further acceleration and Q1 guidance is for virtually no slow down (low 70% growth).
These are crazy numbers.

I read in another tweet that the “Rule of 40” calculation for PINS is something like 118 (where anything over 40 is considered good).

I am long PINS. Added about 40% to my position since the ER. I would love to hear some bear arguments if anyone has some.

On a personal celebratory note - I had my first ever spiffy pop today - with MGNI of all stocks. And it was a double-spiffy-pop right down to the exact penny. I bought my cheapest shares at $5.37 and the price went up exactly $11.46 today. I take no credit for this one - I bought it on the recommendation of someone I trust, without much personal research. Just got lucky.

Top holdings
TDOC - 12% - reclaimed the top spot. ER coming up. They pre-announced, so not expecting any surprises.
Bitcoin - 11% - discussion on this might be verboten here, so I won’t say more (but you should research it)
TMDX - 8% - quietly climbing from $14 where I first mentioned it - up to low $20s - lots of catalysts in 2021. I’ll write a full update after ER. I’ve been very patient with this one and I am hoping for big things this year - just need an FDA approval or 2.
MGNI - 7%
PINS - 6.5% - based on the numbers referenced above, I’m surprised more people here don’t own this one. They appear to be crushing it.
NVCR - 6% - has risen from ~ $60 to $170+ in the last 8ish months - also has lots of catalysts coming in 2021-2022. I wrote an update on this a month or 2 ago.

GH, CRWD, NET, DDOG - all around 5%

Top 10 = ~70% of port

Smaller positions include LMND, BBBY, SPCE, NTNX, PD, FTCH and several other starter positions.

Wish I had more time to share thoughts about more of these, but I’ve been very busy. Started a new job and don’t have as much time as I used to.




Thanks for sharing your update and portfolio positions.

Sharing some views on PINS.

I think for 2021 and a couple more years, massive shift in advertising dollars is a major sustained trend for investment and PINS, ROKU, TTD, MGNI and others will benefit from it.

PINS specifically has best combination of accelerating hyper growth and relatively reasonable valuation. Its revenue is accelerating thanks to variety of factors - some external like pandemic (2020 tail wind) and Apple IDFA policy change (2021 tail wind) - and also management investing heavily into monetization, both US as well as international audience. Ofcourse their value proposition offered to both audience and advertisers is strong and growing. As a result they are gaining more users, more advertisers and bigger share of the wallet. All of these together virtually guarantees sustained revenue growth through 2021 and likely beyond.

I listened to the calls for last 2 or 3 quarters… management commentary is very consistent and well nuanced… and even in their best performing quarter results, they are very balanced in their communication (not just euphorically selling their success). They are always excited about the opportunity, tell you exactly what drove last quarter results upside (or downside that was in Q2-2020), what factors look like temporary bump and what they see as long term tail winds… where they are investing and why.

I think PINS is one of the most under appreciated hyper growth stories out there at this point. There are some interesting opinion on why they have remained under appreciated in this market currently defined by massive speculation by redditors… There has been a few articles on seekingalpha recently and some of the commentary were revealing… here is my view on why they remain relatively undervalued and why it may be changing now.

  1. Pinterest user base is primarily women… investment is primarily a man domination in a house hold… this means PINS doesnt catch high enough attention early enough for investors

  2. Pinterest has been mis-labeled as social network company in line with FB, TWTR and SNAP… so investors look at their near saturation in US audience and take a pass.

In reality, PINS is more akin to Google or Amazon and may be better than both… from the user perspective… as no one really goes to Pinterest to socialize… people go to Pinterest because they want are looking for something… its literally a picture and video search version of google search from what I can see. I say its better than Google / Amazon because it also allows user to visually build the concept of what they want to do (e.g. kitchen remodeling or birthday party planning) and help them get those items…

  1. Less promotional management - as I mentioned above, management is very balanced in their communication… which does not drive momentum - but this is preferred for more discerning investors like us on this board.

With all these in past, I think Pinterest is catching attention this month… some comments on SA articles revealed large number of call options traded around ER this week. The report was tremendous and more importantly, there is lot more discussion about Apple IDFA and its impact on advertising industry… so over next few months, PINS has some likelihood of going from relative undervaluation to relative over valuation… in other words not just revenue growth but also (P/S) multiple growth…

For me - PINS was at 1.7% position in Sept, 5% position in Dec and 8% position today (+some calls). This growth partially due to price appreciation (from $40s to $60s to $80s) and partially I have been adding to the position to due to conviction supported by actual results.

hope this helps.



Adding a little bit more context for PINS

2019 revenue: $1143M was 51% y/y growth
2020 revenue: $1692M was 48% y/y growth
now consider that y/y growth for 2019 Q4 was 46% which dropped to 34% for 2020 Q1 due to covid driven drop in ad spend… worsening Q2 reported just 4% y/y growth… and then accelerated 58% y/y growth in Q3 to 76% y/y growth in Q4…

in other words, their Q3 / Q4 y/y growth rate is much higher than their growth rate in 2019…

and for Q4, the management guidance was 60% y/y growth and they delivered 76%…
now for Q1’21, management guidance is low 70s% for y/y growth which is more than 10% acceleration from previous quarter guidance…

their TTM gross margins are 73%… (its a seasonal business so margins go up & down on quarterly basis… need to look at annual run rate)

and they delivered $97M in FCF in Q4.

And at $81.96 on Friday closure, its trading for 30x P/S on TTM basis and 20x P/S on forward looking basis…

after writing this, I am thinking to add to my 8% position tomorrow!!


Some useful tidbits from PINS management commentary from SA transcript.

Expanding shopping (partnered with Shopify for seamless integration)
The fourth and final priority is shopping. To us, our mission isn’t complete unless we help people create the life they dream about offline. And so often being able to buy the ideas they see is what makes that action possible.

Last year, we made progress in the shopping front. We made it easy to switch directly into shop mode from the search query. So we introduced new features from merchants, all of which led to a 6x increase in shopping advertisers on Pinterest in Q4.

This year, we’re planning to build on this momentum by continuing to help more businesses get their products on Pinterest, and help Pinners discover, evaluate and buy products throughout their shopping experiences. Finally, we want to expand these features more globally, so that no matter where you live, you can shop on Pinterest.

Expanding reach to serve more advertisers more effectively
Over the last year, we’ve invested in our ability to better deliver returns accountable performance advertising, including scaling, conversion optimization, ads, shopping, ads, and building improved automation to help advertisers of all sizes more easily onboard and realize the value of being on Pinterest.

We also expanded our sales team in Western Europe to monetize our engagement there. Drilling down, auto bid was once again a meaningful contributor to our strength in Q4 and was especially so for small, small and medium sized businesses. And I’m pleased that our international business grew 145% year-over-year on the back of strong advertiser demand. International markets now represent 17% of total revenue.

So your question was more specifically about the growth in shopping inventory. Looking in – going from Q3 to Q4, we increase the number of active catalogs by over 60%. And we also have really improved the discoverability of those products. And so in Q4, we expanded the scope of shopping engagement. And we allowed Pinterest to pivot into that shopping mode from any search query. That’s resulted in a really significant uptick in product search. It’s grown roughly 20x in the last year. But I do still think that we’re in early days. We’re certainly in early days in terms of international rollout. But even from a user experience side, while we’ve made a lot of progress, we still have a gap to close before we reach that vision of being able to go from an inspiring scene, or an inspiring video, or an inspiring story on directly to set up products that are easy to buy. And that’s something that we’re excited to invest in.

Also say that on the advertising side, we do see shopping, advertising growing faster, as a proportion of our overall revenue growth. And it’s just one example, Wayfair has really scaled their shopping campaigns with us over the past year, primarily because of measurement and the ability to drive incremental sales. So we think those are kind of great early indicators, but it is early days for us. And we’re going to be working hard to improve that experience over 2021.

Todd Morgenfeld

So Colin, on the second question about being advantaged because of the search characteristics of the platform, I would start by saying, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty around this in general. So I don’t want to overstate what we know. But what we do know about our platform is that we have high degree of commercial intent and planning behavior. And that planning behavior drives a fair amount of on platform signal. So things like board creations, things like visual and text based queries, saves, that are based on that planning behavior that creates a fair amount of on platform signal that helps to inform targeting.

And so relative to other platforms, offsite signal is probably less important for us, because of the intent that we’re able to capture first party on our platform. All that said, when you think about measurements, there are some products and improvements we can continue to make on that front, but that’s where the ambiguity comes in. And I wouldn’t want to overstate our position relative to others. But I think from a targeting perspective, we’re in an enviable position based on the use cases and the planning behavior of our user base.

On pricing ( monetization / getting better value)
Ben Silbermann

Thanks, Doug. So what I would say is we’re seeing more balance these days in terms of both impression, growth and pricing growth, driving volume. So in the past we talked a lot about – most of our revenue if not all of our revenue growth being driven by impressions, as opposed to effective CPMs or pricing. What we’ve seen and saw in the fourth quarter and through the course of 2020, is that – there’s far more balance. And now that we’ve started to see as we’ve been telling you over time, eventually pricing will start to contribute more to our revenue growth. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing. That’s in part due to industry-wide demand, and auction pressure, we’ve continue to grow the number of advertisers on the platform and gotten more share of wallet with our incumbent advertisers, which has been important.

And the most encouraging part about this, as well, pricing is increased across objectives. We’ve seen the most pricing opportunity and build end results in our performance. Against performance objectives, we were better utilizing or becoming more efficient in delivering against the ad inventory that we have. So it’s not necessarily driven as much by cost per action, but by more efficient delivery of those slots, which is a really encouraging trend. I don’t know if that gets to your question.

On accelerating international monetization (where they also have huge user growth…
Todd Morgenfeld

I think that covers most of it. But I think the only thing that I would add, that we’re doing a little differently in international markets relative to what we’ve done in the U.S. is we’re investing in that smaller and medium business cheer of advertisers more in parallel, internationally, relative to what we did in the U.S., which was more sequence. So a lot of what Ben talked about building on the product side will apply more directly to SMEs outside of the U.S. to quicker. We talked about the agency tools return beta, some shopping features will be rolled out more comprehensively internationally over time too. And that’ll be important.


PINS had fallen off my radar but I wish I had been playing closer attention

Looks to me like accelerating revenue + expanding yoy margins

YOY revenue growth going back in quarters is:

76% (this quarter)
4.3% (bad Covid quarter)
35% (partial bad Covid quarter)

And then looking at YOY adj margins from most recent quarter this is what I see

Gross margin improved from 76% to 82%
Op margin improved from 17% to 41%
Net margin improved from 19% to 42%
EPS improved yoy from 12 cents to 43 cents (258%)
Adj ebitda improved yoy from 77 million to ~300 million (287%+)
Adj ebitda margin improved from 19% of revenue to 42%
Cash from operations in the quarter improved yoy from ~9 million to 100 million. From 2% of revenue to 14%
FCF in the quarter improved yoy from minus 3.7 million to positive 97 million. From minus 1% of revenue to 14%

Guidance for next quarter: “Our current expectation is that Q1 revenue will grow in the low-70%
range year over year.”

PLUS they’ll have an easy comp for Q2 as they lap the bad Covid quarter

628,514,637 shares outstanding * 82 per share = ~ 51 Billion market cap / 1,692,658 TTM Revenue = 30 price / TTM sales

Most recent Shareholder letter:…


Good summary Nilvest. This company is executing beautifully. All their ideas seem to be working.

Storyboards - where experts teach through videos (cooking, fitness you name it), this is getting a lot of views
Low friction for advertisers - through autobid, better measurement tools
Traders are uploading catalogues in huge numbers - shopify partnership
easy shopping switch from search to shop mode

Their MOAT - business can get insights what customers are interested even before they have decided to buy (they gave some examples of this); their brand safety unlike FB, twitter etc., people come to Pinterest to get inspiration - feel good.

They got a huge number of MAUs in 2020 a large number being Gen Z.

  • more ad impressions, higher pricing, higher wallet share, more advertisers
  • International is growing fast both in MAU and ARPU

ULTIMATELY pinners need to be able to check out directly, this will also help advertisers. They are not there yet but acknowledged they will get there at some point in the future. Several times they said they are still in the early days.

Looks like “Follow the ARK” crowd is selling PINS. I added to my PINS today. Now a 9% position.



I agree with you and others that PINS showed tremendous growth in Q4, and there are multiple drivers for additional growth moving forward. I believe that PINS has just unlocked a major growth driver through its relationship with Shopify. I also see strong potential for growth as they have transitioned to a programmatic advertising model.

I’m surprised that PINS stock hasn’t gone up by more since they announced on Thursday evening, as they blew Q4 and next quarter estimates out of the water.

I’m curious by what you meant by the “‘Follow the ARK’ crowd is selling PINS.” Has ARK recently unloaded any PINS shares?



1 Like


Yes, ARK has recently been selling off their PINS shares. Though the reasoning is unknown (rebalancing, better opps elsewhere, etc.), so I wouldn’t really think much of it.

ARK has been selling a little PINS from their funds. You can sign up and see their trades. Since their success last year a lot of people simply have been following ARK, Cramer commented on that recently.
I feel quite confident of PINS. There is a very informative podcast on PINS from last December on ChitChat money. The speaker made a comment that for these platforms he divided the market cap by the number of users. For PINS it is $108. For FB it is $270 and for SNAP and others, it has been $180. His point was PINS was still quite undervalued. Also, consider that many PINS users are likely making the buying decisions (majority adult females though this has been changing I gather recently), ads are not intrusive like in other platforms, your privacy is not being “sold” and finally ads can also serve as an inspiration. These are the things that give me confidence. Hope this helps.


They have sold ~2.5M shares across 3 funds from Jan 21 through today - the biggest chunk being 1.47M from ARKK last Friday. The still own ~4.5M shares across the 3 funds.

As mentioned, because of the success of the ARK funds over the past year, many people now follow the daily posting of their trades (I myself get the emails) and follow the trades without knowing why the trades were made.

Sort of like the people that blindly follow Sauls portfolio through his monthly summaries without doing the research on the stocks themselves. Didn’t Saul recently post about this ;).

I’m long PINS and was also encouraged by the earnings call last week - staying long.


yeah… ARK tries to balance both… short term and long term… they go for long term trend based investments and in the short term, adjust position size after a run up… this is good on paper but sometimes counter productive…

e.g though PINS share price has run up before earnings, with the monster earnings results and guidance for further acceleration, on TTM basis, its valuation is lower today than it was before the run up… so, unless one already has oversized position, this is a good time to buy PINS and not sell.

I cant stop adding more to pins every day since last three days… I have raised my position from ~8% last week to ~10% this week