Plug-in hybrid cars

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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I’m not a car expert like others on this board, just an ordinary consumer, kind of a little-old-lady Everywoman. Having read the distressing experiences of EV road trips, I wouldn’t buy an EV car. But I would consider a hybrid gas-EV since most of my driving is local but I do occasionally make a road trip.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/business/plug-in-hybrid-e…

**After Losing Favor to Electric Cars, Plug-In Hybrids Gain Ground**

**There has been a surge in the sales of cars that can travel short distances on just electricity and have a gasoline engine for longer trips.**
**By Lawrence Ulrich, The New York Times, Aug. 5, 2022**

**...**
**Plug-in hybrid sales are climbing in the United States, in part because of the recent surge in gasoline prices. Automakers sold a record 176,000 such cars last year...This year, sales of plug-in hybrids could reach 180,000, analysts said, even as the overall new-car market drops to 14.4 million from 15.3 million a year earlier....**

**All-electric cars have seized around 5 percent of the new-car market. ... But hybrids — led by a growing selection of plug-ins — still make up about 7 percent of sales, and that number could grow for at least a few years...**

**The average cost of a new all-electric car is now a steep $66,000. ... Unlike conventional hybrids, which can be refueled only with gasoline and are dependent on engines, plug-in varieties can operate entirely on battery propulsion. And because these cars have smaller batteries than all-electric vehicles, they can be more affordable. The cars are also appealing because they do not have to be plugged in for many hours to be fully charged....It helps that buyers of some of the leading models, like the Toyota RAV4 Prime, Jeep Wrangler 4xe, BMW 330e and Hyundai Santa Fe plug-in, can claim a federal income tax credit of up to $7,500....** [end quote]

I don’t expect to ever buy another car since I expect my 2017 Subaru Impreza to outlast me by many years. But I do find the plug-in hybrid idea appealing. With tax breaks for solar panels and the car, the government is certainly helping support the transition. I’m risk-averse and find the plug-in hybrid to be more flexible and reliable than all-EV.

Wendy

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I don’t expect to ever buy another car since I expect my 2017 Subaru Impreza to outlast me by many years. But I do find the plug-in hybrid idea appealing. With tax breaks for solar panels and the car, the government is certainly helping support the transition. I’m risk-averse and find the plug-in hybrid to be more flexible and reliable than all-EV.

Don’t get too excited about the EV tax credits yet. With all the restrictions on the amount of local content and where the batteries come from, 70% of the EVs currently on the market in the US won’t qualify for a tax credit.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-aut…

Thank you West Virginia.

intercst

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I’m risk-averse and find the plug-in hybrid to be more … reliable than all-EV.

I don’t. PHEV cars have all the mechanical issues that an all-EV car has, but they ALSO have all the mechanical issues that a gas-only car has, AND all the issues that come with mating the two disparate systems under the same hood.

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Having read the distressing experiences of EV road trips, I wouldn’t buy an EV car. But I would consider a hybrid gas-EV since most of my driving is local but I do occasionally make a road trip.

How about buying an EV for everyday use and renting ICE/hybrid for the “occasional road trip?”

The Captain

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<How about buying an EV for everyday use and renting ICE/hybrid for the “occasional road trip?”>

Great idea – if you don’t mind spending the maximum amount of money.

Wendy

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mmrmnhrm incorrectly asserted: PHEV cars have all the mechanical issues that an all-EV car has, but they ALSO have all the mechanical issues that a gas-only car has, AND all the issues that come with mating the two disparate systems under the same hood.

While your statement makes some sense on a logical basis, you leave out some important parts of the equation, which make the bolded (my emphasis) part of your statement incorrect.

My experience with my 2012 Volt I’ve now had for 6 years is that the car has required far less maintenance than a typical gas-only car, though a bit more than an all-EV car. Why? Very simple: because I drive about 1/2 my miles using electric only, the gas engine mechanicals and associated filters etc … get about 1/2 the use and so need maintenance much less often than a gas-only car.

GM did a good job of engineering the Volt to anticipate and head of potential problems related to the gas engine not being used a lot. While some of the early Ford plug-in hybrids apparently had big problems with the engine getting sludged up with lack of use, not so with the Volt, as they dictate synthetic oil and have algorithms that will fire up the engine occasionally even if not needed to keep things running well.

As a result, I’ve gone as long as two years without an oil change, which is as long as GM recommends letting that go, and so far I’ve passed exactly zero milestones for significant regular maintenance. Tires, windshield wipers, wiper fluid, that’s it.

Another aspect of reduced maintenance that the Volt shares with other hybrids is drastically reduced brake wear and maintenance because most everyday braking needs are met by using the electric motor in reverse, recapturing energy to be stored in the battery and saving wear and tear on the brakes. My 2007 Prius with 140k miles has never required new brake pads, for instance.

Plug-in hybrids do even better with the energy recapture than regular hybrids, because of the big battery being able to recapture energy all the way down a long mountain decent. It’s not uncommon for me to get 2-3 miles of all-electric driving range coming down from a mountain range to the lowlands.

My problems with the Volt have been: had to replace one of the front axles after it started making a clicking noise when turning tight radius turns. Apparently a common problem on early Volts. Fairly inexpensive repair ~$300. And I had to replace the charging cable that came with the car after it crapped out, also apparently a common problem with the early Volts. Fairly inexpensive repair ~$250 for a very lightly used charging cord that was originally shipped with a BMW plug-in hybrid. The new one has upgraded capability to charge from a 240 volt plug. And there was a problem with the battery cooling fluid getting too low, ~$100.

Not bad for a car produced and sold in November 2011, almost 11 years old, with me driving it as a daily driver the last 6 years.

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How about buying an EV for everyday use and renting ICE/hybrid for the “occasional road trip?”

If I’m paying $50,000 or $60,000 for an automobile, I expect it to meet all of my needs. Just like the automobiles I’ve purchased in the past.

I’m holding out for a plug-in hybrid with about a 40 mile all-electric range and a 4 second 0-60 acceleration.

intercst

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if you don’t mind spending the maximum amount of money.

Do the math, does the saving on the EV over its lifetime pay for the occasional rental?

The key words in your post were ‘daily’ and ‘occasional.’ How often is occasional?

The Captain

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Do the math, does the saving on the EV over its lifetime pay for the occasional rental?

I looked into this, once upon a time, and concluded that it doesn’t - at least where I live. Checking again, I find that the rough cost to rent a midsize car for a weekend trip is about $150 - so figure $300 for a twice yearly rental.

That’s probably enough to eat up a lot of the savings on the EV for a lot of people. Model 3 runs you between 3-4 cents per mile. Typical new sedan gets around 32 mpg, so figure a rough 10 cents per mile for your ICE - maybe 7 cents a mile savings. Typical car gets driven about 14,000 miles per year, but you wouldn’t expect an EV to have the same number of miles driven as a ‘typical’ car. EV’s are mostly going to be driven by users who aren’t driving massive numbers of miles. So while the national average is a little over 14K, the average in states like CA or OR or WA (where most EV’s live today) is around 12K. So you’re only saving about $800 on fuel with your EV.

Having to rent a car twice in a year eats up a pretty big chunk of those savings. I don’t think you cover the ‘EV premium’ only saving $500 per year on fuel.

https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P1013L1O.pdf
https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/average-miles-driven-per-year…

Albaby

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I’m holding out for a plug-in hybrid with about a 40 mile all-electric range and a 4 second 0-60 acceleration.

The RAV4 Prime is close. 42 mile all-electric range and 5.5 second 0-60mph acceleration (per Motor Trend). Plus you get the space and utility of a CUV, and the reliability of Toyota.

Pricey though: cheapest I see on AutoTrader within 500 miles of western NC is $43,600, and you’d probably have to search to find one, or wait. It comes pretty well loaded, though.

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Another aspect of reduced maintenance that the Volt shares with other hybrids is drastically reduced brake wear and maintenance because most everyday braking needs are met by using the electric motor in reverse, recapturing energy to be stored in the battery and saving wear and tear on the brakes. My 2007 Prius with 140k miles has never required new brake pads, for instance.

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Brake wear is the most expensive part of normal automobile service. For my ICE vehicles from the past I paid about $1000 for front brake rotors, calipers, pads, brake fluid and labor. For all 4 wheels it would $2000. Currently it would cost even more.

Reduced wear of brakes is the most significant maintenance item for saving money on any vehicle - ICE, Hybrid or EV.

The cost of engine oil changes, transmission oil changes, coolant changes, air filters, fuel filters and drive belts are insignificant compared to brakes. EVs do not have any of these costs.

Jaak

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“I looked into this, once upon a time, and concluded that it doesn’t - at least where I live. Checking again, I find that the rough cost to rent a midsize car for a weekend trip is about $150 - so figure $300 for a twice yearly rental.”

I don’t know where you live, but car rental prices went through the roof when companies downsized their fleets and are short on rental vehicles:

“On average a rental car from Enterprise in Dallas costs $126 per day.”

Hertz will rent you a car for $500 for a week…plus taxes and fees likely running it over $700.

If you want to go on a week long vacation - that’s not chicken feed, plus Enterprise has a 100 mile per day allowance. More is more$$$$

A couple more weekend trips could run it up.

Plus I suspect on holiday weekends/travel, those chargers are going to be back logged for hours…

t

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Jaak:"Brake wear is the most expensive part of normal automobile service. For my ICE vehicles from the past I paid about $1000 for front brake rotors, calipers, pads, brake fluid and labor. For all 4 wheels it would $2000. Currently it would cost even more.

Last couple cars got 130,000 miles before I had to do a brake job…wasn’t anywhere need $1000.

New car has 146,000 on original brakes and still only half worn.

All depends how you drive and where. Average person probably replaces brakes at 60K miles. I see some idiots driving that probably need brake jobs at 20K miles and a few ‘two pedal’ drivers that tend to hit the brake pedal a lot of the time when driving - insuring costly repairs before they know it from overheated brakes.

Jaak: "Reduced wear of brakes is the most significant maintenance item for saving money on any vehicle - ICE, Hybrid or EV. The cost of engine oil changes, transmission oil changes, coolant changes, air filters, fuel filters and drive belts are insignificant compared to brakes. EVs do not have any of these costs. "

well, so far, my car needs an oil change every 8,000 miles. EVs have battery coolant systems, still have cabin air filters. Had to replace the tiny start stop battery in both Malibus after 5-6 years. (lead acid battery). Also has main battery up front. The Prius 12v dies every 7-8 years or so.

EVs still have all sorts of electronics, still have suspension parts (they weigh another 1000 lbs), steering systems, likely CV joints, brakes, etc. You drive like an idiot you’ll be fixing the brakes anyway. Regenerative brakes only work with slow application of brake pedal.

well see if the hype of ‘much fewer repairs’ and maintenance holds up - and how many recalls you got to go back to the dealer to get fixed.

t

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I don’t know where you live, but car rental prices went through the roof when companies downsized their fleets and are short on rental vehicles:

Miami. I just zipped over to Enterprise, entered by zip code, and $50 per day was the general rental for a midsize sedan. I didn’t really think that would be non-representative, but after reading your post I did the same search in Dallas, and it was twice the cost - more than $300 for a weekend rental, which would nearly eliminate fuel savings.

I think that we shouldn’t put too much store in short term price movements. Pre-pandemic, the “typical” national price to rent a car was about $50 per day - and that’s gone up to about $90 per day these days:

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38797011/car-rental-price…

Over the long-term time horizon of owning a vehicle, I think we can expect that price to be closer to the historical norm of about $50 per day - just like we would use a gas price of just around $3 per gallon rather than the post-Ukraine peaks of $4.50-5.00 per gallon.

Still, I think we agree - if you have to rent an ICE occasionally to make up for your EV’s lack of long-range mileage, you’re going to eat through a sizable proportion of the fuel savings from the car. If you have to do that more than once a year, it’s going to really affect the value proposition of the EV.

Albaby

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If I’m paying $50,000 or $60,000 for an automobile, I expect it to meet all of my needs. Just like the automobiles I’ve purchased in the past.

Have you ever rented a vehicle while still at home? For moving? For transporting a large bit of something or other? Or borrowed one? If so, your car of that moment did NOT meet all of your needs.

I have never owned a vehicle that met every need I might have. However, every vehicle I owned met a large proportion of my needs. And when I had a need that the vehicle didn’t meet, I borrowed or rented a suitable vehicle.

I think it’s perfectly reasonable to have an EV for daily commuting and around town use. Then rent an ICE for a week or two of road trip. And, to Wendy’s complaint, while that might be more expensive that owning a single vehicle for both, it also might not. It depends on your specifics. But it should not be dismissed out of hand.

Personally, I’d love to have an EV for daily use near home. But I have yet to find an EV that can carry my son in his wheelchair.

–Peter

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70% of the EVs currently on the market in the US won’t qualify for a tax credit

This

The most ironic thing about the new credits is that a used Tesla will get most people a $4000 tax credit but a new one will not. Used Teslas are going to increase in value next year.

Hawkwin
Who reserved his new EV on Friday for delivery by the end of the year - cause if he waits until 2023, he loses his $7500 tax credit.

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t:
Last couple cars got 130,000 miles before I had to do a brake job…wasn’t anywhere need $1000.

New car has 146,000 on original brakes and still only half worn.

All depends how you drive and where. Average person probably replaces brakes at 60K miles. I see some idiots driving that probably need brake jobs at 20K miles and a few ‘two pedal’ drivers that tend to hit the brake pedal a lot of the time when driving - insuring costly repairs before they know it from overheated brakes.

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Your costs are unbelievable. You are only talking about brake pads - what about rotors and calipers and brake fluid. You may get higher mileage by lots of highway driving in flat states. City and hilly areas put more wear on brakes. Based on your statements, I would never get into your car with your unsafe brake maintenance. You also probably drive on bald tires.

Brake pads, rotors (brake discs) and brake fluid should be checked every 20,00 miles. Pads are usually changed every 40,000 miles - some sooner some later. Rotors are usually turned or replaced at 50,000 - 60,000 miles. Auto manufacturers recommend brake fluid changes every two years.

References:

  1. Brake pads and rotors
    The lifespan of brake pads can vary but they should last between 25,000 and 60,000 miles.
    It’s harder to gauge how long brake discs last for, but you could get 80,000 to 120,000 miles out of a set. However, 50,000 miles is a more realistic estimate.
    https://bookmygarage.com/blog/how-long-do-brake-pads-and-dis…

  2. Brake fluid
    Most vehicle manufacturers recommend the brake fluid is changed every 2 years, regardless of the mileage. It may be that the fluid would be good for longer, but why take the chance?.

Even if the fluid looks okay, you should still change it. You’re not going to see the moisture in the fluid – it happens on a microscopic level. The best and most definitive way to know is to check your trusty Haynes Manual.

One thing to consider about brake fluid is that even if you’re not changing it, you should regularly check it. As a bare minimum, you should be giving it a cursory inspection every few weeks.

Brake fluid is carefully engineered to have a certain thickness, hence the ‘DOT’ rating you’ll see on the bottle when you buy it.

Your brake fluid should always be clear. If it has any dirt or murkiness, it needs to go. If it smells burned, it also needs to go. Other indicators will be if the level drops on the reservoir (it goes down as the brake pads wear, so don’t automatically think that there’s a leak), or if you notice that the brake pedal is spongier than it used to be when pressed.

https://haynes.com/en-gb/tips-tutorials/brake-fluid-change-h…

Jaak

I always take the upmost care in my cars to have the brakes working in top notch condition.

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Having to rent a car twice in a year eats up a pretty big chunk of those savings. I don’t think you cover the ‘EV premium’ only saving $500 per year on fuel.

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Fuel cost is not he only thing one saves with EV over ICE

https://www.nrdc.org/stories/electric-vs-gas-it-cheaper-driv…

Lifetime costs for electric vs. gas cars

You can figure out your savings estimate by calculating the upfront costs of your specific model (minus tax rebates) and then ongoing costs. Those should account for your model’s efficiency, how much you plan to drive, regional electricity costs, charging habits, and maintenance costs per year. Then compare those to the gas-powered alternative.

Of course, if you want to skip the math, this 2020 Consumer Reports study may help. It compared nine of the most popular EVs on the market with three comparable gas-powered vehicles, including the best-selling, top-rated, and most-efficient in their class. The results were clear: The lifetime ownership costs for all nine of the electric cars were “many thousands of dollars lower than all comparable ICE [internal-combustion engine] vehicles’ costs, with most EVs offering savings of between $6,000 and $10,000.”

Jaak

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Of course, if you want to skip the math, this 2020 Consumer Reports study may help. It compared nine of the most popular EVs on the market with three comparable gas-powered vehicles, including the best-selling, top-rated, and most-efficient in their class. The results were clear: The lifetime ownership costs for all nine of the electric cars were “many thousands of dollars lower than all comparable ICE [internal-combustion engine] vehicles’ costs, with most EVs offering savings of between $6,000 and $10,000.”

Which, of course, gets mostly eaten up if you end up spending $4,500 on renting an ICE twice a year over that 15-year lifetime. It then disappears entirely for cars if you also use a more realistic figure for annual miles driven, rather than the 15K figure that CR uses, since people driving EV’s aren’t going to drive as much (on average) as people driving ICE’s.

Albaby

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It then disappears entirely for cars if you also use a more realistic figure for annual miles driven, rather than the 15K figure that CR uses, since people driving EV’s aren’t going to drive as much (on average) as people driving ICE’s.

Got any data? While there is a certain stereotype of EVs for short commutes, no such pattern is likely to exist for Tesla owners.

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