Poll: Your Performance Year-to-Date

From January 1, 2022 to the present (or to June 30, 2022), what is the percentage change in valuation of your portfolio of non-cash* financial assets or investments (stocks, bonds, derivatives, CDs, money market funds, or intangible assets with some sort of counterparty risk)?

*For purposes of this Poll, a percentage change in the exchange rate of foreign currency holdings against the US Dollar can be included or excluded at your discretion.

  • Up + 10% or more (please explain or describe assets)
  • Up + .01% to 9.99%
  • Down - .01% to 9.99%
  • Down - 10% to 19.99%
  • Down - 20% or more (please explain or describe assets)

0 voters

I’m up.

Late last year as Larry Summers discussed that the Fed would need to hike soon and a lot, and then the Fed belatedly and reluctantly admitted yes they would have to raise rates, I got short treasuries and stocks. The treasuries went down a bit straight away but the stocks varied - ARKK, an ETF of Saul-type stocks fell first and the Nasdaq kind of followed but the S+P 500 made a new high on 3 January.

At that point I was a bit uncomfortable as I was over 200% short - ie short $2,000+ worth of stock for every $1,000 in my account. That positioning gives very negative convexity - for example if stocks went up 1%, my short ratio would go up 3%, ie from 200% to 206%.

Anyway Jan 3 was the top and by now I’ve taken off 2/3 of the position at around today’s levels giving me a 60% gain this year.

I’m not claiming I’ve made more money than guys long the right Nasdaq stocks over the past decade, just I seem to be able to read some of these tactical situations OK. And take the risk on board. Same in 2008/9/10. But lost a bunch in the 2013 taper tantrum …

I’ve posted how stocks were doomed either by the Fed or a recession or both, similar to but lower key than Wendy. Who knows how much further they go down, but talking my book I’m still shortish and looking to add to shorts around S+P500 3.9k-4k, expecting a dip around the end of July FOMC and a significant fall right after Labor day. What happens then depends how inflation goes … I can’t read it well, there are lots of opinions and analyses out there in both directions. If inflation subsides - and many commodity prices have subsided - the Fed could stand down and stocks could hold in.


Stocks: -10.4%. (

Rental Homes: +5.5%. (Based on net rent after all expenses, plus using a property value that subtracts 5% from the current price. I feel the units would easily sell above the value I’m using for my calculation. That could change in a few months - but I have a bit of cushion built in.)

Cash: +1.4%. I’m told I’m “Losing money” in cash. Yeah, maybe. But it’s still there. The 9.4% is gone to Wall Street to the smart people. Sadly I’m not one who celebrates losses with cutting a cake and saying “dollar cost average!” “I took a tax loss!”. I Googled it - making money is good. Losing money sorta …lets use sophisticated words…um…sucks.

Now like a lemming all I can do is hope… though due to population, and a culture that loves to spend on crap they don’t need with money they don’t have - – I have reason to believe it’ll be ok eventually and history so far says the same.

Also I see many people, accomplished people who seem to be living well, and have built wealth thru stocks - so there’s that.


Well done.

I remember, all last year thru up and down - “2” times I got to my apex. I promised myself if it goes to that point again - I’m OUT until there’s a crash. So I went back up. But then I reminded myself that this time around I was gonna do the whole “buy and hold” thing.

So here I am.


I have been adding a bit at these levels.

Sis Boom Bah.

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What’s so special about January 1 except that it’s the day the taxman’s clock starts ticking? Why not April Fool’s day?

Down 21.58% on 7/7/2022, down more earlier but the real story you can find here


The Captain


I’m down almost 30% YTD but it could have been worse. If I had done nothing to my holdings that I had in January it would be much worse. But I didn’t pivot enough into value is the problem. So doing slightly worse than QQQ, but that trend is beginning to reverse. Fingers crossed.

What keeps me sane is that from January 2016 I have a CAGR of 24%, versus 13% for the S&P 500. I have a good sized loss, but still far above where I’d be otherwise. About 80% higher, if my spreadsheet is correct.

What irks me is back in November I had a very nice balance that was close to a usable retirement balance, at only 55. I should have put it on auto-pilot at that point in a diversified fund. Balanced maybe, target date maybe. But certainly have gone with much less risk, one way or the other. Two things. One, I really miscalculated how much I’d need to retire (on the high side), making me think I still needed a lot more growth. Two, I got greedy with the appreciation I had been seeing and got drunk on where I could get if I just went for “another pull of the slot machine”. Lesson learned: have a goal, and “as high as possible” isn’t really a goal.


Performance YTD?
My 62 securities I hold, most individual stocks, I’m sure have adjusted down in price since the first of the year, but I don’t monitor this and I really don’t care, as valuation change is not what we live on. Instead, we live on the dividends these securities produce, and this year has been fine. Thru June 30, we have had dividend increases in 7 stocks: SO, SKT, PG, O, JNJ, GPS and CINF plus a big jump in interest income from money market funds. I don’t see any real or obvious threats to dividends for the foreseeable future for the dividend paying stocks I hold.



Up +10% I am in USD

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Can break my investments into 2 catagories: stocks YTD down about 5%, rental real estate YTD up about 50%.


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I decided in mid December to go simple. Nothing complex.

Simple brushstrokes keep the thinking straight for risk and reward in that order. Or if rewarding possibly at all and if safe in the first place.

I am thinking when the time is right to go long to only buy Intc. Again simple risk and reward. Another year another brushstroke. The artist in me.

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I’m flat YTD. By the way, cash IS an asset. Stock funds, etc., aren’t allowed to hold much cash, but individual investors can hold as much cash as we want.

I remember the 1970s when inflation was high. I decided to live below my means and I did save cash. (At the time, money market funds and bank accounts yielded more than they do now.)

I have most of my cash in short-term Treasuries now, waiting patiently for the stock market to decline further during the coming recession. I still have a little in stocks, mostly in bonds (including I-Bonds) and CDs.

My primary residence has increased in value but I count that as “one house unit” since we have to live somewhere. Anyone with real estate in addition to the primary residence should count that as a financial asset since it can be sold.



See my CAPs portfolio. Down from 6500 to 4000.


My biggest holdings in order of size are

  1. fund of “private” loans to Los Angeles County real estate developers, mostly invested in warehousing and dense housing, and as of June 31 up 18% for the year but who the hell knows what comes next

  2. “Working Interest” stakes in multiple tiny oil and gas wells in Wyoming, Colorado, and Texas, and all are up a lot in payments but hard to state % comparable to other investments, but checks after costs are up about 23% (wrinkling my eyebrows)

  3. private loans to fast growing Los Angeles businesses, and they all seem to be going gangbusters and paying my exorbitant 11 to 12% interest monthly with smiles and no stress

  4. KRC Kilroy Real Estate, down 22%, but dividends seem stable and for me this is a very long term hold

  5. Spanish Real Estate dead flat

  6. Mexican luxury resort condos and bare land still seems to be climbing but until I sell who the hell knows?

david fb


I’m down about ~27%. But this is after being up about 155% in 2020-2021. So no complaints.
I also have 5+ years of expenses in funds down just 2 or 3%.
And another year+ worth in I bonds…up by maybe 5%.

My down stocks are mostly long time holdings in tech stocks (Apple, MSFT, AMZN, semi’s, NFLX, TSLA, Saul stocks) but also some dividend stocks (Pharma, COST, LMT)



We’re up a little over 1% thanks to a large buy of XOM, and that thanks to Mungo on the BRK board a while back. On the other side is a big loss in Facebook lately (don’t weep for us, I bought at 17). I sold half a while back but didn’t want to take the bigger tax hit so I held the other half. Oh well, wouldn’t be the first time I let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

Otherwise some up, most down, but not a lot either way.


Good point, captainccs. When I look at our holdings year over year instead of year to date, we are still down but nearly 7% better off.

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Up 10% YTD thanks to XOM (40% + dvd’s). Some payback for the downturns we suffered during the price war and then pandemic demand crunch. It all evens out over time.

JNJ doing what it’s supposed to do - be less volatile. Up circa 4% with dividends.

BRK down circa 9%. Tolerable

Cash somewhat of a flywheel. Down in real terms but I’m sleeping well.

One might note a few commonalities among the above three stocks.

All are shareholder oriented. I trust the management. I think I understand the companies.

All were (or are) AAA rated when bought.

All are internally diversified within their sectors. Combining the three I feel pretty diversified. The Munger viewpoint.

All are big enough and strong enough to ride through a depression if anyone is.

That’s not an accident. I wasn’t trying to beat the S&P 500 when I bought or kept them. I was trying to put my retirement assets - ex cash - where I felt comfortable for the long haul.

Since the Gen Re acquisition by BRK, there’s surprisingly little difference in their total returns. That acquisition changed BRK.

XOM took a beating 2016-21 due to the Saudi-Russia price war followed by the pandemic crushing demand. But it outperformed BRK for the period 1999 to 2015 as did JNJ - counting dividends. And it’s catching up some now for the capex it continued to make during that difficult period.

Others have done better - some much better - with the hot stocks. But I’m content.

Especially with the new friends I’ve made from the Berkshire crowd. And what I’ve learned from them as well as Buffett and Munger.


Anyway Jan 3 was the top and by now I’ve taken off 2/3 of the position at around today’s levels giving me a 60% gain this year.

Wow! You’re lucky you are able to time the market so well. I’ve never had success timing the market, so I just stay put 99% of the time.