Predictions 1, 4, and 5 (below) have come to pass easily in 2025.
It wasn’t close (reality is not in the same universe as Predictions 4 and 5 not coming to pass).
Tesla’s FSD improves in 2025, but it is not autonomous (unsupervised) and definitely not deployed to the scale proposed (proposed just in the last 3-6 months) by the lead architect.
Tesla didn’t even meet the low bar of beating Prediction 1.
It’s unserious to even consider Predictions 4 and 5, but the lead architect offered the alternatives to these in July on the Q2 earnings call.
It should be said that Tesla stock went up for much of 2025 despite the failed AI claims. I gave up long puts on the stock in Q3, which did not work.
This is the correct advice:
Prediction 1
Prediction 4
Prediction 5