PAYC, AMZN and SHOP are not participating in the up day. Must be some promised Trump policy that is perceived to be bad for the business of those three.
PAYC I can guess that less Gov’t regulations requires less SW and automation for HR to comply with. Is that it?
AMZN and SHOP, why are they down? I have no clue.
#6
Trump in the past has said Bezos and AMZN have a huge antitrust problem. AAPL has been called out to manufacture products in the US. FWIW
Rob
Was Paycom affected by the election results of raising the min wage in various states?
Can’t think what their issue was unless wobbled by some other sector news.
A
Also: LGIH, NVDA, ANET. Funny, but not ha ha funny.
Tesla down also (one of my holdings) but that would be because Trump might not be willing to continue Govt subsidies for the purchase of their cars.
Doesn’t PAYC have software modules they sell related to compliance with Obamacare guidelines… if that goes away/is modified so will future PAYC revenues?
Was Paycom affected by the election results of raising the min wage in various states?
Can’t think what their issue was unless wobbled by some other sector news.
PAYC, I think I can make the case for it. In a heavily regulated business environment, HR departments are struggling to cope and must spend money to stay compliant. PAYC helps with that. So, lifting Gov’t regulations hurts PAYC.
I think BOFI and SBNY are up and LGIH is down because Trump has accused the Fed of being too accommodating. Therefore, interest rates may start rising faster than expected. Good for banks, bad for home builder.
BOFI should be fine then. They have about 300 employees, extremely high turnover and no HR department (cost savings? Who needs a stinking HR department anyway?). In addition, the have CEO who seems to have all the impulse control of D. J. Trump
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-presidency-will-aff…
Here is a story on the Trump/Bezos feud and threats and it may impact Amazon.
Tinker
I think BOFI and SBNY are up
The banking sector is on fire because Trump made some noise about reversing the Dodd-Frank legislation that killed the bank profits.
Looks like SHOP is down again almost 5% today (as of right now). I know the whole sector is down, but SHOP is leading the downward trend. Looks attractive to possibly start a position.
Bert seems to agree: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4023256-early-sale-shopify-s…
I do too…added some SHOP today.
Bear
thanks bear that is a useful link in understanding SHOP.
I am not worried about the recent price action as long as the underlying story and business plan is intact.
Even stocks that go “to the moon Alice, to the moon” pause along the way.
( The great Gleason was hard to play next to- the show was live and he often deviated from the script without warning.)
TMF
One stock that will benefit greatly from a Trump presidency is TransCanada Corporation (TSX:TRP)(NYSE:TRP). The ability to build pipelines across the border was affected after President Obama rejected the Keystone XL pipeline. Donald Trump has made it clear that he’s open to having the pipeline and said that he’d ask TransCanada to renew its permit application.
If Keystone XL is approved, more crude oil will be transported from Canada into the U.S., and this would cause a huge amount of investment interest in Alberta’s oil sands. We could potentially see the struggling oil companies finally gain some ground after the nasty rout in oil prices we’ve experienced over the past few years.
Such a move could give Canada the boost it needs to get out of its funk. While Donald Trump is “making America great again,” he’ll actually also help make Canada great again if the right moves are made. There’s no way to be certain that Trump will approve of pipelines such as Keystone XL, but there’s a much better chance than there was with Obama.
Another stock that will benefit big from a Trump presidency is Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU)
http://www.fool.ca/2016/11/11/donald-trump-will-make-these-2…
Have to agree with the near certainty of approval of the 860,000 barrel a day Keystone XL. Moving Suncor oil.
How much already baked in the cake? Not sure. TransCanada popped a bit and fell back. Maybe longer term play.
No doubt that Obama’s policies were anti-domestic oil, and in comparison Trump will open up the “spigots” so to speak in regard to exploration and pipelines.
However, the same issue will remain for oil companies, and that is supply and demand. Particularly with the vast supply of shale oil in Canada and the U.S., and Saudi desire to maintain oil prices at lower levels (I presume to discourage more fuel efficiency behavior, and adoption of electric vehicles due to higher fuel costs), will the price of oil rise to a sustainable level sufficient to make all this activity profitable?
I remember having arguments with many people on the Fool (many very smart) about when “peak” oil would be reached. My answer was, doubt it, due to increased technology to find and drill, and increasing fuel efficiency and substitutions.
If this were a command economy, instead of a largely free economy, then shortages and peak oil would be a near certainty, but in a free market enterprises, in their own self-interest, will move to substitute products to replace input material that starts to become too rare, as manifests itself by pricing.
Is there a rebound in the price of oil to come, given this behavior, that will be considered sustainable so as to allow oil shale to prosper again?
At some point for sure, but in the near to mid-term? I don’t know.
Tinker
I’m very tempted with a top up in SHOP. I had been looking for the opportunity to enter AMAZON with its recent fall but on reflection, it could be a lame duck for a while whilst Trump considers his position. I’m starting to read discussions of an AMAZON break up. I guess from a market cap alone it fits the ball park. Whether or not the fact that it has market places, prime and AWS all under one roof is as dastardly as Bell and Standard Oil’s monopoly or even Microsoft’s OS and office suite bundling is less clear.
On the other hand with SHOP almost a proxy for Amazon, growing much faster and from a tiny base I’m wondering whether it is better to invest in something that could materially 10x rather than say 2-3x for Amazon.
I had considered topping up on PAYC until it recovered and still considering topping up on Twilio.
Ant
Ant:
Good point about AMZN/SHOP! Then here is MELI…
Denny Schlesinger
Yup agree Denny - I posted on that over on BMW board. It probably is worth bringing here too.
MELI = MercadoLibre which is LatAm’s AMAZON or AliBaba.
http://discussion.fool.com/hfc-neogen-mercadolibre-32479392.aspx…
Looking at the chart I can’t help that it has farther to fall. It seems to go up then almost down the mountains everytime.
Ant
We got into a discussion about oil. My response was that although a Trump administration will almost certainly be far more open to exploration and drilling, that this won’t matter much if oil prices remain low.
News today is that OPEC, for the first time since 2008, has agreed to put a limit on some production, with Saudi Arabia leading the way.
I don’t know if this is good economically for Saudi Arabia it appears to me that if it results in materially higher oil prices the demand will be taken up by shale oil in Canada and the U.S. (which would supply the answer if domestic oil industry might revive).
In the end, however, we are caught between more oil supply than we have ever had in the history of the world (far from peak oil), with long-term trend moving to higher fuel economy and material numbers of electric vehicles.
Where in there that leaves investments in shale oil, I dunno. But though it interesting news. Saudi was probably pressured by Iran, now that Iran has the nuclear deal, to try to raise oil prices. I am just not sure this will do anything but create a shorter term spike in oil, unless it is done very carefully and prices rise just enough to make more money on oil, but too low to encourage opening up drilling in shale again.
Tinker
Where in there that leaves investments in shale oil, I dunno. But though it interesting news. Saudi was probably pressured by Iran, now that Iran has the nuclear deal, to try to raise oil prices. I am just not sure this will do anything but create a shorter term spike in oil, unless it is done very carefully and prices rise just enough to make more money on oil, but too low to encourage opening up drilling in shale again.
Tinker
The high cost and the badly managed shale oil producers went broke. The ones that are left are better managed and lower cost producers. I read this week (no link) that technology improvements have lowered the cost of extracting shale oil. IMO shale oil will remain in the game and put a cap on the price of oil as it takes over Saudi’s position of swing producer.
Investing in indvidual shale oil producers might be risky but investing in top notch oil service companies like Core Labs (CLB) and Oceaneering International (OII) should be good.
Denny Schlesinger
Long: CLB with OII on the watch list
NOTE: Oceaneering International does underwater work so it’s not shale related but higher oil prices will benefit it nonetheless.