ProdigalFool17 Portfolio Report

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

ProdigalFool17’s End of July 2018 Report
As always, I first want to bow to the Court of Investment Kings. There are just SO MANY super smart folks contributing to the boards on Motley Fool. Without the selfless and untiring help of this community I would not be where I am. The knowledge provided by this community is truly changing my family’s future and for that I am forever grateful.

End of May 2018 is considered my starting point. Thus, this is my 2nd monthly update for performance and changes. I can’t say enough about how the process of trying to write all this down is helping me as an investor. It’s LOT of work, but it’s truly helping me understand my investments and analyze them much better.

OVERALL PORTFOLIO POSITIONS DISCUSSION
My goal in June was to consolidate from 17 stocks down to 10-12. I reduced to 13 stocks. Saul challenged me on my June report that I “truly” considered NKTR a “high conviction” Tier 1 stock since it was my highest percentage portfolio holding even though I had it categorized as Tier 3 Low Conviction stock. I thought about that and concluded that Biotech is simply too unpredictable. A single drug announcement causes wild swings in the stock price. Thus, I’ve decided to exit NKTR. For exiting, I am selling covered calls. The calls are getting attractive return and effectively lower my basis. While I am price anchoring, selling the calls and gradually reducing the call strike price will recover my current losses while getting an attractive return in the meantime. Exiting NKTR will reduce my holdings to 12 positions.

During the month of July, Saul reported that he picked up two new stocks: Zscaler and New Relic. ZS has an extraordinarily high PE ratio. DreamerDad first recommended ZS on the NPI Board a few months ago. I couldn’t wrap my head around the valuation then… now that Saul has recommended it, I still can’t get my head around it. I know Saul says that he doesn’t primarily consider valuation, but as I am learning I feel more comfortable watching on this one. The biggest thing weighing on my mind is Dumaflochies’ records showing the even in the high growth stocks, the mid-range PE stocks preform better than the super high PE stocks. Thus, I’m not following Saul and Dreamer on ZS. I’m actually following Duma and his statistics on high PE stocks and avoiding this one. New Relic looks “interesting”. I bought a starter position and will research it more thoroughly. Due to business travel, I was unable to completely research it but Saul’s posts and the boards assessment was convincing so I took a small position. During August, I’ll either add or sell based on completing my research. Adding New Relic puts me back up to 13 stocks. 14 including NKTR until the covered calls sell the NKTR shares. Again, my goal is to get down to 10-12 stocks. Thus, if I am to keep New Relic, I need to sell one to three positions in addition to exiting NKTR. The goal of August will be to reduce to 1-3 positions and get in the 10-12 range.

There were no other notable stock suggestions from Motley Fool premium services that I subscribe to or NPI that prompted me to consider another new position.

Note: The more I am working to truly understand and follow these stocks, the more convinced I am that I need a very small number of stocks. 10-12 may even be too many.
Note: In respecting Saul’s request for not discussing options here, I’ve omitted Options related gains/losses and discussion thereof with the exception of the covered call strategy to exit NKTR. Please do not reply with option related commentary.
Note: I draw my stock suggestions from Saul’s Board, NPI, and Motley Fool Premium Services. Premium services additions if any will not be discussed until 30 days after the purchase is made.

SELLS: There were no positions or shares sold during July.

RE-EVALUATIONS:
NOTE: I notice that Saul and Tinker both continually re-evaluate. Saul, in particular, has entered/exited/entered on several stocks. So, it’s not that I’m “looking back” in a negative way. I’m simply doing a quick re-evaluation to see if the thesis has changed on these companies.
In June, I sold all shares of 5 positions: IBKR, ILMN, ADBE, ANET, OKTA. Quick Re-evaluation: IBKR, not reconsidering; simply don’t believe in the company as a high growth company. ILMN, of course, shot up 10% during July after I sold out in June. I loved the company when I sold it, but I felt others had greater growth potential. Maybe I got this one wrong; for now, I’m going to continue to watch. ANET continues to trade sideways in the 255-275 range. ADBE remains a large cap, so not looking back there either. OKTA, my biggest complaint was that it was “just” a single sign-on cloud company. OKTA made an acquisition this month that’s broadening its offering. I’m also wondering if ZS and OKTA are competitors. Not sure I’ll re-enter OKTA or reconsider ZS, but watching and reading. ILMN and OKTA may deserve a second look during August.

PURCHASES: Started a small position in NEWR pending more detailed assessment. Did not add to any other positions. Likely should’ve just added NEWR to the Watch List until my detailed assessment is complete.

OVERALL PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE DISCUSSION
The overall portfolio was up 3.96% for the month and 9.26% since inception including both stock and option returns. Excluding options returns, the stock portion of the portfolio was up 1.53% for the month and 7.25% since inception. So, overall it was a great month soundly outperforming the market. Note: the last trading day of the period was horrendous. The portfolio dropped almost 3% on that day. Wild volatility all week triggered largely by Tarriff news. Friday’s drop was spawned by the quarterly GDP announcement at 4.1%. While that, in itself, is a high number. The 4.1% included many one time events and actually indicates a lower GDP growth. This brought out the “end of the bull” bears in force and there was a wide spread market sell off. In spite of the volatility, the portfolio performed very well largely on the backs of MDB (+20.0%), SQ (+13.3%), AYX (+9.9%), and SHOP (+9.8%). Only PSTG (-4.9%), TLND (-2.0%), and NEWR (-2.5%) were down for the month.

I also compared my performance to Saul’s since his monthly performance was markedly better than my own. Picking stocks and allocations matters. If you look at my five worst performing stocks for the month (PSTG, VRNS, COUP, TLND, NKTR), Saul doesn’t own 4 of the 5. Further, the one that he does own (PSTG), he’s only got a 1.4% position in. Thus, the bottom five performers of my portfolio account for 29.75% of my portfolio and only 1.4% of his portfolio. Further, if you compare my top five performers (MDB, SHOP, SQ, AYX, TWLO), those account for 58.50% of his portfolio and only 29.86% of my portfolio. It’s easy to see why his outperformed mine so dramatically… he has double the allocation on the best performers and 21.25 TIMES less on the worst performers. It’s not that I’m trying to “do what Saul does”. It is that I’m trying to assess and learn from someone more successful than I.

CASH: 26.35% of portfolio. Increase of 1.47% since last month. Increase in cash from new contributions and options profits.
Tier 1, MDB: 7.09% of portfolio.
Tier 1, NVDA: 4.55% of portfolio.
Tier 1, PSTG: 5.82% of portfolio.
Tier 1, SHOP: 5.78% of portfolio.
Tier 1, SQ: 6.55% of portfolio.
Tier 1, VRNS: 5.91% of portfolio.
Tier 1, PVTL: 7.11% of portfolio.
Tier 1 High Conviction Stocks range from 4.55% on NVDA to 7.11% on PVTL. The average position size is 6.12%. Since NVDA is my fourth smallest position of 14 stocks, it makes me question whether NVDA is truly a High Conviction Tier 1. The concern on NVDA is that the market cap is already at $150B+. Is it likely to be appreciating at the rate of much smaller high growth companies?

Since inception, MDB (+33.30%), PVTL (+32.67%), SQ (+29.94%), and VRNS (+29.44%) are my highest performing stocks. Three of the top four monthly returns were also Tier 1 stocks: MDB (+20.01%), SQ (+13.32%) and SHOP (+9.77%). The worst performing stock of the month was PSTG (-4.86% monthly). The worst performing since inception are NVDA (+0.85%) and PSTG (+3.52%).

Tier 2, AYX: 6.06% of portfolio.
Tier 2, COUP: 5.75% of portfolio.
Tier 2, NTNX: 3.74% of portfolio.
Tier 2, TLND: 4.98% of portfolio.
Tier 2, TWLO: 4.38% of portfolio.

Tier 2 Moderate Conviction Stocks range from 3.74% on NTNX to 6.06% on AYX. The average position size is 4.98%. AYX had the third highest monthly gain, 9.93% which accounts for it surging into the largest Tier 2 position.

Since inception, AYX (+11.27%), TWLO (+10.44%), and COUP (+7.44%) are my highest performing Tier 2 stocks returns. One of the top four monthly returns was a Tier 2 stock: AYX (+9.93%). TWLO (+8.37%) was the fifth highest monthly return. Other Tier 2 stocks range from -2.02% to +1.56% monthly returns. The worst performing stock of the month was TLND (-2.02% monthly). The worst performing since inception are NTNX (-13.09%) and TLND (+3.77%).

Tier 3, NKTR: 7.29% of portfolio.
Tier 3, NEWR: 2.28% of portfolio.

Since inception, NKTR is down -25.15%. I will continue selling covered calls on NKTR until I can exit without incurring a loss. NEWR is under evaluation.
Watch List
ILMN
ZS
OKTA

Candidates to reduce portfolio size: NVDA, PSTG, NTNX, TLND, NEWR, COUP. Currently at 14, already decided to sell NKTR which will put me at 13. Eliminating one of these six candidates would put me at 12, eliminating three would put me at 10. Eliminating all six would put me at 7 positions. NVDA is a candidate due to Market Cap and lack of growth recently. PSTG/NTNX/TLND… short term lack of gains isn’t a good reason to sell. All of these companies are highly spoken of on both Saul/NPI. I don’t think the thesis has played out yet. COUP… Financial SaaS company… but maybe not the best of the SaaS out there. NEWR… it is simply still under evaluation. NVDA’s the only one I can make a case for selling… but it’s NVDA! There’s unquestionable long runway there. Going to be tough.

INDIVIDUAL STOCK DISCUSSION:
I am adopting a new template to discuss each stock. My task throughout August will be to complete the templates for every stock. Currently, only the NVDA template is complete.

Tier 1, MDB:
7.09% of portfolio. Up 20.01% for the month. Up 33.3% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 1, NVDA:
4.55% of portfolio. Up 6.38% for the month. Up 0.85% overall.

Purchase Thesis: I bought NVDA because they are THE MONSTER in video computing for computer gaming. They totally dominate the market. They’ve got a huge moat on the nearest competitors and video gaming and e-games are growing hugely. Further, NVDA is at the forefront of AI computing and super fast GPU’s… also exploding fields with huge potential market. NVDA also has significant partnerships leading towards autonomous vehicles. I believe autonomous vehicles are “a given” in the future and NVDA will likely have a significant role in those implementations. With respect to potential competitors such as Intel, AMD and other companies trying to make their own chips, past hyped product releases have fallen short of NVDA performance and have slipped in schedule. Further, NVDA has more advantaged chips waiting to be released. I think it unlikely that a real competitor will surface in the near term but will monitor and update thesis monthly. Based on being first in their field and having huge growth potential, I see that this stock can continue to dominate and grow. Their market cap is already over $100B… so I don’t see them as a 10 bagger potential… but I do see them getting strong continued growth in the coming years.

Sell Thesis: I’ll sell NVDA when I see one of three things. 1) They lose their market dominance in GPU’s. 2) Their potential in AI computing and/or autonomous vehicles dwindles. or 3) I feel they’ve capped out in market cap and their growth rates stall.

Comments/Concerns:

  1. Already a large market cap and bought in after massive run up. Low stock profits so far from my starting basis. Need continued growth to sustain stock price and thesis to play out as expected. Vulnerable to loss if growth rate slows. See Sell Thesis Item 3.
  2. Backlog of inventory appears to be slowing progress as they try to get old inventory off the shelf before releasing the new models. Not a huge problem, but a process that needs to happen.

Tier 1, PSTG:
5.82% of portfolio. Down -4.86% for the month. Up 3.52% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 1, PVTL:
7.11% of portfolio. Up 0.25% for the month. Up 32.67% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 1, SHOP:
5.78% of portfolio. Up 9.77% for the month. Up 9.24% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 1, SQ:
6.55% of portfolio. Up 13.32% for the month. Up 29.94% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 1, VRNS:
5.91% of portfolio. Up 1.81% for the month. Up 29.44% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 2, AYX:
6.06% of portfolio. Up 9.93% for the month. Up 11.27% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 2, COUP:
5.75% of portfolio. Up 1.56% for the month. Up 7.44% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 2, NTNX:
3.74% of portfolio. Up 0.62% for the month. Down -13.09% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 2, TLND:
4.98% of portfolio. Down -2.02% for the month. Up 3.77% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 2, TWLO:
4.38% of portfolio. Up 8.37% for the month. Up 10.44% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 3, NEWR:
2.28% of portfolio. Down -2.48% for the month. Down -2.48% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Tier 3, NKTR:
7.29% of portfolio. Up 3.48% for the month. Down -25.15% overall.

Purchase Thesis:

Sell Thesis:

Comments/Concerns:

Thanks
Mark

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Great detail; perfect even.

Would even be more digestable if it were summarized right at the beginning, THEN go into it…

(Back when I made presentations for a living, I told them what I was going to tell them, then told them, and then told them what I told them… Sounds redundant, and it was, but it worked.)

I KNOW the information is ‘down there’ in the details, but to find need to drill, dynamite, drill more, dynamite more, scratch, read finely, and sort thru LOTSA data…

I’m sure it’s just me, but…

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A fair and valid point. For my second ever Portfolio Report, I actually take that as praise. For next month, I’ll put an executive summary up front and a conclusion at the end. If every month I make it better, I’ll only get better and learn… that’s what I’m here for. Hopefully, it’ll evolve to where it becomes helpful to others as well. I know I STUDY the other Monthly Reports on this board.

I actually noticed a third thing I want to add: Key Feedback Requested. I put all the data out there, but I didn’t ask what specific feedback I’d like to hear from the board. Any comments are welcome, but sometimes I’d like specific feedback on certain items.

This month, Key Feedback Requested

  1. I’ve got some major decisions to look at in reducing the number of holdings and looking at allocations. Any comments or observations?? 10-12 is a somewhat arbitrary number. More is hard for me to keep up with. Less is getting to what I refer to as “hyper-consolidated”. I don’t think I’d be comfortable with less than 8. What would be your candidates for consolidating and why?
  2. Individual Stock Template. I wanted a "plain English explanation of why I bought, when I’d sell and what my comments and concerns are. I might add a section on key financial stats. What do you think of the template? Adds/Deletes? Thoughts on the NVDA one completed?
  3. If anyone is interested in helping me fill out the templates as a “community resource”, help is welcome. I feel maintaining them will be much easier than initially creating them. I’m going to do them all, but if someone wants to help on a company or two, I wouldn’t turn down some assistance. Email me if you’re interested.

Thanks for the feedback.

Next month adding Executive Summary, Key Feedback Requested and Conclusion Sections.

Mark

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Hi Mark, I like your idea of setting out a thesis of why you bought it and what would make you sell. I’d like to suggest a small modification though that I think you’ll understand.

Instead of Purchase Thesis I’d call it something like “Why I Like it”. Why? Well six months, or a year, or two, after you bought it the purchase thesis has become irrelevant. The company may have changed its orientation (Nutanix), come out with new important products (Twilio), etc. It should be a question of why you like it now rather than why you originally purchased it.

The Sell Thesis is fine although it’s not really a sell thesis, which would be a bear or short thesis of what you don’t like about the company. The way you are thinking about it its more of a 'What would make me sell" thesis. (“I’ll sell NVDA when I see one of three things…”)

Hope that helps,

Saul

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Help me out here....

My candidates to reduce portfolio size as of 7/30 were as follows: NVDA, PSTG, NTNX, TLND, NEWR, COUP.

After SHOP's earning report I developed the sell thesis: "we believe that deceleration of revenue growth rates and reduction in margins will result in lower multiples being afforded the stock and therefore, we'd expect share price stagnation or decline."

This earnings season and that sell thesis led to some "interesting" disappointments.  

VRNS was my #3 best performer going into Earnings Season.  It failed the sell thesis above and gave back 30% gains over night with reduced revenue growth rate and collapsing margins..  A rather disappointing outcome.

SHOP... we all know what happened there.  It caused me to create the sell thesis.

Then there was TLND.  It yet again proved out the sell thesis... decelerating growth and reduced margins.

COUP was simply not performing compared to everything else.

I ended up with 4 sells: VRNS, SHOP, COUP and TLND.

My "new portfolio" ended with these allocations after buying more MDB, AYX, and SQ.  My issue is the percentages are now "out of alignment".

Symbol	PF%
CASH	32.3%

Tier 1: High Confidence
SQ	10.6%
MDB	9.0%
PVTL	7.3%
PSTG	5.9%
NVDA	4.8%

Tier 2: Moderate Confidence
AYX	10.3%
NTNX	3.9%
TWLO	5.6%

Tier 3: Low Confidence
NEWR	2.3%
NKTR	8.1%  Cover Call "sells" in place.

Here are my struggles:
SQ: I'm good where I am on that one.
MDB: I've got two puts sold at $55 and $60 (both 9/21/18 expiration) to potentially increase my position there... and the stock's already run up over $60. I'd like more in MDB.
PVTL: I've got a PVTL put sold as well to potentially increase my position there. I'd like more in PVTL.
PSTG: I know Tinker is totally sold on PSTG, but its fundamentally a hardware provider.  It just nags at me that they won't be able to sustain growth.  I'm thinking it's really a Tier 2 for me.  How proprietary is their solution?
NVDA: NVDA's just a BEAST. It's NVDA after all.  I believe in it more than any stock I've got... but I don't believe it's going to have the highest growth rate.  I'm both unwilling to sell it and don't believe it'll have the highest growth rate.
AYX: All the recent discussion on Saul/NPI has helped.  AYX reports tomorrow.  The recent discussion convinced me to buy more shares but the percentage is higher than my confidence.  I even went and bought some calls on AYX.  Tomorrow's earnings has me on pins and needles.  I know I'm exposed higher than my confidence level here.
NTNX: Similar story on NTNX.  The recent discussion on NTNX has helped a bunch.  I feel I'm under exposed there... but my basis is so much higher than everyone else's.  I feel like "if AYX works out well tomorrow, I'll buy more NTNX."  I know that's totally illogical.
TWLO: That earnings report certainly made me wish I'd had more exposure there.  Now that's its run up, I'm struggling to buy more. 
NKTR: Remains a Tier 3.  Covered Call for Sell in place.
NEWR: Hasn't impressed.  Still need to complete research there and go over it's earnings in detail.

My self observations:
1) I'm struggling due to all the volatility lately to pull the trigger on buying stocks versus selling puts to try to buy at a discount.
2) I respect the heck out of Tinker.  Don't want that to go to his head, but it's true.  The man is a research machine.  Why am I Tier 2 on PVTL as a hardware provider and he's Tier 1?  What am I missing?
3) The NVDA Dilemma.  Believe in it wholly, but don't believe its the highest growth rate.
4) Should I buy more NTNX or TWLO?
5) Thinking of dumping NEWR.  Need to research more, but not thrilled.
6) I am basis anchoring.  So many people bought NTNX or whatever so much earlier than me.  I'm negative in NTNX... so many others are up.  
7) I'm return anchoring.  Everyone else is up huge... I dropped from +17% to 0% and am now back to +9%.  All that volatility since June 27.  "They" are plus a bazillion percent.  Part of it is my starting point is March and I really didn't start adapting to Saul/NPI until May/June.  Part of it was Options both leveraged my gains and losses.  Part of it was allocation differences and market timing.

Folks are always so reserved... "Only you can determine...."  I wish somebody would just attack me on facts.  Make me decide.   At NASA, I'm known as a very hard manager to work for.  I demand excellence.  I demand that folks "get it right".  I'm struggling here.... is this what people feel working for me?  Struggling to "get it right"?

I find myself "return anchoring" against others.  Judging myself poorly because other's have far greater returns than I.  Yet, I'm new.  They had run ups prior to March when I started.  Etc etc.  But the facts don't always relate to the emotions.

**On Saul's board... PLEASE respect the rules and don't comment on the Options aspects.**  Email me if you choose.  To me, the biggest part of becoming a successful investor is the emotional aspect of it.  That's a pre-requisite.  The skill part is actually second... that's something that can be learned.  I'm trying to learn both.  I feel like such a babe in the woods.... where in my job at NASA and elsewhere I am "Master of my Domain"... here I feel naked... a very uncomfortable and different position for me.  Much learning here...

So help me.... please comment so I can learn.

Respectfully, 
Mark
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Did I mention I HATE Motley Fool formatting?? Let’s try this.

Help me out here…

My candidates to reduce portfolio size as of 7/30 were as follows: NVDA, PSTG, NTNX, TLND, NEWR, COUP.

After SHOP’s earning report I developed the sell thesis: “we believe that deceleration of revenue growth rates and reduction in margins will result in lower multiples being afforded the stock and therefore, we’d expect share price stagnation or decline.”

This earnings season and that sell thesis led to some “interesting” disappointments.

VRNS was my #3 best performer going into Earnings Season. It failed the sell thesis above and gave back 30% gains over night with reduced revenue growth rate and collapsing margins… A rather disappointing outcome.

SHOP… we all know what happened there. It caused me to create the sell thesis.

Then there was TLND. It yet again proved out the sell thesis… decelerating growth and reduced margins.

COUP was simply not performing compared to everything else.

I ended up with 4 sells: VRNS, SHOP, COUP and TLND.

My “new portfolio” ended with these allocations after buying more MDB, AYX, and SQ. My issue is the percentages are now “out of alignment”.

Symbol PF%
CASH 32.3%

Tier 1: High Confidence
SQ 10.6%
MDB 9.0%
PVTL 7.3%
PSTG 5.9%
NVDA 4.8%

Tier 2: Moderate Confidence
AYX 10.3%
NTNX 3.9%
TWLO 5.6%

Tier 3: Low Confidence
NEWR 2.3%
NKTR 8.1% Cover Call “sells” in place.

Here are my struggles:
SQ: I’m good where I am on that one.
MDB: I’ve got two puts sold at $55 and $60 (both 9/21/18 expiration) to potentially increase my position there… and the stock’s already run up over $60. I’d like more in MDB.
PVTL: I’ve got a PVTL put sold as well to potentially increase my position there. I’d like more in PVTL.
PSTG: I know Tinker is totally sold on PSTG, but its fundamentally a hardware provider. It just nags at me that they won’t be able to sustain growth. I’m thinking it’s really a Tier 2 for me. How proprietary is their solution?
NVDA: NVDA’s just a BEAST. It’s NVDA after all. I believe in it more than any stock I’ve got… but I don’t believe it’s going to have the highest growth rate. I’m both unwilling to sell it and don’t believe it’ll have the highest growth rate.
AYX: All the recent discussion on Saul/NPI has helped. AYX reports tomorrow. The recent discussion convinced me to buy more shares but the percentage is higher than my confidence. I even went and bought some calls on AYX. Tomorrow’s earnings has me on pins and needles. I know I’m exposed higher than my confidence level here.
NTNX: Similar story on NTNX. The recent discussion on NTNX has helped a bunch. I feel I’m under exposed there… but my basis is so much higher than everyone else’s. I feel like “if AYX works out well tomorrow, I’ll buy more NTNX.” I know that’s totally illogical.
TWLO: That earnings report certainly made me wish I’d had more exposure there. Now that’s its run up, I’m struggling to buy more.
NKTR: Remains a Tier 3. Covered Call for Sell in place.
NEWR: Hasn’t impressed. Still need to complete research there and go over it’s earnings in detail.

My self observations:

  1. I’m struggling due to all the volatility lately to pull the trigger on buying stocks versus selling puts to try to buy at a discount.
  2. I respect the heck out of Tinker. Don’t want that to go to his head, but it’s true. The man is a research machine. Why am I Tier 2 on PVTL as a hardware provider and he’s Tier 1? What am I missing?
  3. The NVDA Dilemma. Believe in it wholly, but don’t believe its the highest growth rate.
  4. Should I buy more NTNX or TWLO?
  5. Thinking of dumping NEWR. Need to research more, but not thrilled.
  6. I am basis anchoring. So many people bought NTNX or whatever so much earlier than me. I’m negative in NTNX… so many others are up.
  7. I’m return anchoring. Everyone else is up huge… I dropped from +17% to 0% and am now back to +9%. All that volatility since June 27. “They” are plus a bazillion percent. Part of it is my starting point is March and I really didn’t start adapting to Saul/NPI until May/June. Part of it was Options both leveraged my gains and losses. Part of it was allocation differences and market timing.

Folks are always so reserved… “Only you can determine…” I wish somebody would just attack me on facts. Make me decide. At NASA, I’m known as a very hard manager to work for. I demand excellence. I demand that folks “get it right”. I’m struggling here… is this what people feel working for me? Struggling to “get it right”?

I find myself “return anchoring” against others. Judging myself poorly because other’s have far greater returns than I. Yet, I’m new. They had run ups prior to March when I started. Etc etc. But the facts don’t always relate to the emotions.

On Saul’s board… PLEASE respect the rules and don’t comment on the Options aspects. Email me if you choose. To me, the biggest part of becoming a successful investor is the emotional aspect of it. That’s a pre-requisite. The skill part is actually second… that’s something that can be learned. I’m trying to learn both. I feel like such a babe in the woods… where in my job at NASA and elsewhere I am “Master of my Domain”… here I feel naked… a very uncomfortable and different position for me. Much learning here…

So help me… please comment so I can learn.

Respectfully,
Mark

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Hi Prodigal, please don’t list all your puts and their price and expiration dates. Options are Off Topic on our board. Feel free to say “I have some put options on ABC” if you feel it’s important.
Thanks for your help and cooperation with this,
Saul

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Mark, what you are missing is < pre > and < /pre > (with no spaces) around the tabular data only. That allows the rest of the message to format normally, but the preformatted tabular data to be fixed space font and nice columns.

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Why would you keep stocks where you have only “low confidence” ?

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With respect to NKTR, Low Confidence is my “sell list” but still own…

NEWR… I should’ve waited to buy until I completed my own detailed assessment.

I’m learning. Thanks for the challenges and questions.

Mark