I guess this can also serve as a bit of an interim portfolio update as well. I am currently up 29.4% YTD versus 4.5% for the S&P500 (with dividends not included, so add maybe 1.2% to adjust for that if you’d like). My present allocation percentages are included at the bottom of this post. Sorry, but I do not readily have YTD or “since-I-bought” % gains tallied for each position.
For the past few weeks, I have been “struggling” a bit trying to decide on a good stock to move into a firm #2 position in my portfolio (#3 and #4 needed too). NVidia has long been my number 1 and that is still the case with it holding about a 23% position (along with a few July 20th call option positions that push it to more like 24%). I recognize that Saul and others are still viewing NVDA as primarily a hardware company, but I have noted that Jensen (their CEO) has gone out of his way to point out on multiple occasions that they are a platform company rather than a hardware company. As GauchoChris has pointed out multiple times, there are many items that will need brains in the near-term future, and NVDA is very likely to be a provider of a good number of those “brains”. Recognizing the lower desirability of having a hardware-heavy business model, I still see a nice runway for NVDA’s future. Then there are also tax implications which make my decision to let NVDA stay firmly in the #1 spot a rather easy one.
That said, it currently seems like I have about 10 positions all tied for #2 through #11. For a proper concentrated portfolio, I feel like I should have a better defined #2 and #3, maybe #4 even.
#2 had solidly been Arista until about 5-6 weeks ago.
Mercado Libre (MELI) has been close at different times with some time spent firmly in the 2-3 range.
PSTG currently holds the distinction, with call options included.
Nutanix, Alteryx, Pure, MELI, Square, and The Trade Desk are all now running in the almost 4% to almost 7% range in my portfolio allocations. IQ and PVTL are on the verge of jumping to that range.
Nothing lately has yet screamed at me to declare that it should be number 2 and thus garner a 10-ish% (or higher) position. Anyone want to try to “sell me” on a good number 2? If not, feel free to tell me I should simply be patient and let a clear number 2 reveal itself. Alternately, this thread could be a good place to go into your own thoughts on a concentrated portfolio and conviction levels necessary for maintaining a concentrated portfolio. From the looks of things presently, NTNX, PSTG, and PVTL seem like the most likely candidates for me (particularly with my current options positions included in that consideration), with IQ or TTD as potential darkhorse candidates. I would be far more likely to grow an existing position into my #2 spot rather than having a brand new position go straight to #2. Pivotal is basically my newest position and if it jumps to >$30 between now and September 21st, I will most likely exercise my Sept $22.50 call options and it will move firmly into #2.
Now that I have added rank numbers to the list below and see that I have 18 non-trivially-sized positions, that seems like a few too many to truly benefit from portfolio concentration.
-volfan84
For reference, here are my current allocations (sorry about the 2nd decimal place, which I recognize is silly to measure to…remainder is about 2% cash), including some notes about how I have treated positions.
1. NVDA 22.95% (added some in IRA just a bit after starting IRA, had trimmed from ~27% a few times previously)
2. PSTG 6.44% (trimmed a bit and later added a bit since starting position)
3. MELI 6.35% (added multiple times prior to the run-up over $400, none since drop from there)
Options 5.92% (MongoDB, JD, CELG, SBUX, PSTG, NVDA, NTNX calls & a few others)
4. ANET 5.53% (trimmed about 5-6 weeks ago)
5. SQ 5.34% (have never trimmed or added, position started with exercise of $26 call option position)
6. AYX 4.92% (added a bit a month or so ago)
7. TTD 4.58% (did add some in late 2017....should have added more in Feb.-April 2018, darn you Bear :) )
8. NTNX 4.42% (have added subsequent to initial position opening)
9. BOFI 4.18% (haven't trimmed or added anytime in quite a while; cost basis is $18.something)
10. SHOP 3.93% (should have let this one run more rather than trimming, up about 290% for me)
11. AAPL 3.92% (have already trimmed this some)
12. IQ 3.85% (added some last Friday)
13. PVTL 3.18% (Shares and options included here....shares bought 7/9 in the pre-market)
14. SWKS 2.93% (did add a tad after initial position, I think; will benefit from 5G, but when?)
15. UBNT 2.91% (trimmed recently, as mentioned here: [http://discussion.fool.com/why-i-lightened-my-ubnt-position-3311...](http://discussion.fool.com/why-i-lightened-my-ubnt-position-33114740.aspx) )
16. NKTR 2.91% (may use to harvest some tax loss to offset some gains, such as from UBNT trimming; may also hold through potential 181 FDA news)
17. HUBS 2.13% (haven't added or trimmed ever, should have added in late-2017 along with TTD)
18. IRBT 1.67% (likely selling soon, but waiting out a bit longer for possible mower announcement)
Sorry to only include the tickers there, most of these are closely followed on this board, so I presume folks mostly know the company names. A few exceptions might be SWKS which is Skyworks Solutions, BOFI which is Bank of Internet holdings, MELI which is Mercado Libre, and IRBT which is iRobot.
