Profire

The earnings CC transcript is available
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2914676-profire-energys-pfie…

We have people there that work that field specifically. And give up to the point where this – the oil price really came down, they were making phenomenal momentum and had any number of companies that were ready to pull the trigger. Since that time, they are maintaining an interest these companies are, but again because they are restricted in their budgets are not making those decisions.

We expect our net income to be between $5.5 million and $6.6 million, previously $8 million to $9.5 million which would represent a decrease and increase of negative 2% to 18% respectively over the previous year. We remain very confident about our long-term opportunities and ability to execute our growth strategy at the appropriate time.

he Flare Stack is starting off with some good acceleration when we introduced it at the end of summer and we moved a couple hundred units fairly quickly. What we found though is again as we got into the commodity spiral downward in starting in October, November, that many of our clients although there is a lot of validity as far as the effectiveness of that particular product. They weren’t in a mindset or a budget position to get to exploratory on trying new technologies at that particular time. …we are not seeing the type of acceptance that we were hoping for at that time.

And so right now we work with about 200 clients. But we have recognized in North America there are about 4,000 independent producers

New drills have historically been receptive to innovative technology, but as drilling activities decline, we will look to deploy increased resources towards the retrofit market, which is estimated at close to 1.3 million wells. To-date, we have sold slightly less than 40,000 systems and we estimate that current market penetration is still well below 5%.

and an informative link about Bakken and crude oil conditioning
http://www.thebakken.com/articles/983/moving-toward-crude-co…

which presents a strong case for Profire solutions

Once installed for roughly $4,000, the system can maintain a given temperature for a certain application and detect and reignite a low flame if needed. It can also help to mitigate downtime created when oil tanks are not heated appropriately before transport trucks arrive. In North Dakota, weather causes the viscosity of oil to change, Limpert explains. When weather is cold and oil viscosity is low, a truck driver will have to wait to fill until the oil is heated and flowing at the appropriate level.

True $4000 is a capex, but it isn’t a big one. And one that might pay for itself quickly in fine avoidance

new well pads and tank batteries would have to meet the requirements for temperature and pressure standards. Failing to do so will result in a $12,500 fine for every day the oil is out of compliance. DMR field representatives will check pressure and heat gauges during site visits. Transload facilities also need to ensure oil moved onsite is under the 13.7 Reid Vapor Pressure threshold.

I expect similar regulations in most oil producing states within the next year or two. They just make sense. As does anything to reduce flaring (Profire flare ignition systems are not doing as well as desired)

It seems to me that the violent fluctuations in crude prices , perhaps rather than the crude price itself is the biggest factor running against Profire. With no idea what your product (oil) is going to bring on the marketplace in a week or even a few months it is impossible to make smart capital expenditure decisions. So you reduce or eliminate all but the most critical ones. Until regulation arrive, burner auto ignition is not critical, you can always send a roughneck to do it.

The past history of oil bubble - busts indicates that after a while the supply - demand will stabilize, and prices with it. So far PFIE stock price seems to have fallen right along with crude prices. and the stock has bounced of a bottom 3 times over the last few months.

Management seemed surprised by the sales fall in light of crude prices, not an encouraging sign. But now they have cut back on spending and personnel.
Just a wild guess but I doubt if US crude prices will stay under $50/bbl for long. And I am pretty sure that volatility will decrease.

So while I was bear on PFIE as soon as crude started falling, now I am getting interested again. On the assumption that growth possibilities are still there, and low crude prices have been priced in. But it might be a long wait for boom time .

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