Prust04's January 2025 Portfolio Review

2025 has arrived and it looks like the market will be more volatile than ever. I expect it will be a rough next week with the tariff news, but hopefully it won’t cast too large of a shadow over the slew of earnings reports the following week.

It was a solid month for most of my stocks but I got hit hard by the Deepseek news, with Astera and Nvidia making up ~37% of my portfolio when that news hit. That has been covered extensively on the board so I’ll focus on my other stocks and decisions, but I am definitely considering chopping those two down just to not be so consolidated in one sector. But I don’t want to overreact to the sell-off, so I will likely do this gradually.

Here’s my performance and current allocations:

JAN: -1.54%
YTD: -1.54%

Decisions And Company Reviews

ALAB: -24% Price Change MoM
Well, it’s not great when your top holding is down this much. Smorgasboard just explained why they may have gotten hit harder than other AI stocks, but in the short term I still expect their forthcoming report to be great and for them to bounce back. I will probably try to trim this down after earnings, assuming they go well, just to bring some balance to my portfolio.

NVDA: -11%
As with Astera, I may begin to trim this back. It was nice to see them have a little momentum back before Deepseek

PGY: -2.5%
Very little news for PGY, other than a new ABS Loan deal announced yesterday. Last earnings report there was a big run-up into the report, and if it happens again I will likely trim before the report. All eyes are on the Loan Impairment numbers and GAAP Net Income guide for 2025. If we get positive news there, as they have suggested there will be, I expect a big spike. But I’m not willing to fully trust management yet.

NTRA: +12%
They pre-announced earnings and as I predicted in a separate thread, the guide was heavily sandbagged. Revenue was up 52%, which is a slight slip in growth rate from 64% but still fantastic. There was no guide in the pre-announcement, which is why the response may have been a little muted, but they are progressing forward with successful clinical trials to expand their use-cases and fuel growth. Their CEO has earned some industry recognition as a top CEO. I am comfortable & confident with them as a top holding.

UPST: +5%
They announced a couple of new credit union partnerships, and an enhanced Auto Solution, but otherwise I’m just waiting to see if they can continue their comeback story with the upcoming earnings report. Macro is no longer in our favor here.

NU: +28%
It was great to see positivity return for NU since I think the negativity was WAY overblown. Most of the news of late has really allowed us to see the scale of their vision, with conversations about relocating HQ to London, potentially expanding into the US, and making big moves in Mexico. Before all of this, I was considering giving Nu a big haircut, but I’m back to being bullish.

RDDT: +21.5%
No real news but Reddit keeps chugging along. I want to see one more great report before I consider adding, but I’m beyond happy to have almost doubled my original investment in just a few months.

DCTH: +30%
A great month for Delcath and I added a good amount to my position. They pre-announced earnings as well and saw revenue grow 35% QoQ. They are at a very small base and hopefully just at the beginning of a long story.

HIMS: +53%
My largest gainer this month even though I didn’t really see any news. It seems to be just recovery from getting knocked down so far last month.

APP: +13%
I added a bit to my position to hopefully get ahead of a positive eCommerce growth story. We will see at earnings.

SMCI: -6%
SMCI got hit by Deepseek as well, and was generally having a good month before that. The amount of articles about SMCI and opinions on both sides is kinda nuts. They still haven’t cleared up last year’s annual report. Their earnings date is unclear. But I’m hoping for a big pay day if/when it all gets cleared up.

INOD: -7%
Another that got crushed by Deepseek to the tune of 25% in one day. I’m still bullish about growing demand for their services and I don’t see why Deepseek would affect that whatsoever. In fact, it’s probably a tailwind, as more companies without huge data teams will need to outsource data work. I added a bit to them this month, but it was before the big drop.

CRDO: +4%
Also hurt by Deepseek but thankfully has recovered quite a bit. No other news here.

PAY: -4%
I decided to trim Paymentus by half in order to fund some of the moves I made above. After reviewing my portfolio, this stood out as lower confidence for its place in my portfolio, so I slashed it.

KRYS: +5.4%
A new company for me after finding them on Koyfin. They produce a drug for a skin disease that previously had no treatments. It is rare but there is an estimated 25-50k cases in the US and they are the only solution. Revenue went from 45M to 70M to 84M in their first 3 quarters as a public company, with 90% margins and they are already profitable.

TMDX: +7%
Simply holding on until earnings clarifies their roadmap moving forward.

NBIS: -15%
Seems like an interesting value proposition in the AI industry, so I took a small watcher position and want to learn more during earnings.

That’s all from me, looking forward to seeing a slew of earnings reports and commentary from the board.

49 Likes