2025 is finally here - and this board seems to be a microcosm of the market, as many are showing uncertainty that was also evident in the market in December. I share the same concerns with regards to tariffs and inflation, but I’m not prepared to chop down my portfolio yet. December was a pretty quiet month in terms of company news but nearly all of my stocks ended down as unease seemed to spread with macro and political news. Perhaps there was a large amount of profit taking and tax loss harvesting, too.
2024 was a year of tremendous learning for me and while I’m happy with my overall performance, I can’t help but be disappointed with a 70% gain when I was up 100% in July. The second half of the year was really chaotic for me as I held and doubled down on some stocks due to being overly optimistic and inexperienced. With that said, I was able to fund house projects purely from stock gains this year and that is a huge win at this point in my life - it’s essentially what this portfolio (my “short term” account) is for. So I can’t reasonably be disappointed at all.
I am hopeful for 2025 as I added some new positions that I feel are very promising, and many of my other holdings have strong momentum or reasons to believe 2025 could be a great year (macro aside). I have more positions than usual but I like being in the position to hopefully trim down to my best ~10 positions next earnings season. I’ll run through them briefly below along with moves I made in December.
Here’s my year-end performance and current allocations:
JAN: +11.38%
FEB: +19.98%
MAR: +3.37%
APR: -7.07%
MAY: +15.18%
JUN: +7.13%
JUL: +0.19%
AUG: -3.43%
SEP: -2.32%
OCT: -3.8%
NOV: +13.07%
DEC: -2.93%
YTD: +69.77%
My lifetime performance looks like this:
2018: -39% (very small Q4 investment)
2019: +77.54%
2020: +127.35%
2021: -28.97% (found this board in Fall 2021)
2022: -68.51%
2023: +71.10%
2024: +69.77%
Decisions and 2025 Hopes
ALAB: +28% Price increase in December
Already a very high allocation, ALAB seems to be at the start of tremendous growth and similar to NVDA & SMCI last year, I’m hoping this is one I can trim at multiple points to reinvest in other areas or pay for some travel and projects I have in mind for 2025. I’m uncertain what my % cap will be for them as of yet.
NVDA: -2.8%
I believe the growth will continue in 2025 and the market will realize that this story is not over. I’m hoping another great report brings Nvidia to new highs.
PGY: -13.9%
I have Saul’s “value of selling” post ringing in my ears on this one, but I’m not willing to sell quite yet despite it really dragging my portfolio. 1H 2025 will be make or break for PGY, and a jump to GAAP profitability could lead to huge gains. There are a lot of reasons to be positive, but management will need to prove that they can be trusted with regards to the loan impairments and profitability. My patience paid off with UPST, hopefully it does with PGY.
NTRA: -5.2%
If they are the sandbaggers they seem to be, they could be due another big bump next earnings and a strong 2025. They are accelerating on all metrics and are continuing to announce new opportunities, although I’m still learning about this company.
UPST: -21.9%
I sold some Upstart up near $80 in December which turned out to be a good decision as it fell quite a bit with the inflation fears coming back. I have the greatest amount of fear for UPST, and will probably be ready to sell out if their Q4 report doesn’t continue the rebound trajectory.
PAY: -11.9%
I’ve only held this stock a short time but their trajectory looks great, I’m excited to see what 2025 has in store.
NU: -18.6%
I trimmed a bit of NU as well to fuel some new positions. Like NVDA this seems like a long-termer that I believe will prove the bears wrong. Their investment in Tyme and expansion in Colombia hints at things to come, despite the macro negativity.
RDDT: +15.2%
Another great month for Reddit. With such a big price run up these last few months, they’ll have a lot to prove each earnings release. And with only 3 public quarters under their belt, I’m curious to see if the growth trajectory can keep up.
SMCI: -6%
As the tide began to turn for SMCI, I added a bit to this position. If the worst truly is over, it could have a big 2025, and I’ll be happy to take advantage. If not, this position is small enough to not hurt.
HIMS: -26.2%
My “biggest loser” of December (pun intended), investors seem very focused on the story vs. the numbers with HIMS. I still see them as a viable, credible player in a huge market and think they’ll continue to prove it in their reports in 2025.
CRDO: -9.2% since initial purchase
I started a position after @monkeydluffy covered their earnings. They’ve been down since I purchased, but it looks to be a rapidly accelerating business which could be a big winner in 2025
APP: -3.3%
The price run-up has been so astounding in 2024, I imagine only a huge ramp in eCommerce will keep the foot on the accelerator. I believe they will achieve that, so I’m staying in.
INOD: -2.5%
Innodata is a data engineering company who has begun working with big tech on their AI data. I started a position in this company and then added to it after Wedbush initiated positive coverage. Their revenues are quickly accelerating with the AI wave and their earnings transcript sounded incredibly bullish. Their last 3 quarter YoY revenue growth went from 41% → 66% → 136%. GM was 42% last quarter and they made 17M in Net Income. They are onboarding and ramping with multiple big tech companies so I’m hoping for a huge 2025.
IMMR: -3.8%
They had been posting great results due to expanded licensing agreements and acquisition of Barnes & Noble education, but in digging into Barnes & Noble’s specific results a little further while writing this post, I’ve decided to sell my shares as they are the bulk of revenue currently.
DCTH: +4.1%
I stumbled on Delcath using a new Koyfin screener I started, and started a position after reading their last few earnings releases, and also noticed @ryshab has a position as well. They specialize in liver cancer treatment, and are just getting off the ground with their oncology treatment centers, which have grown from 3 to 12 over the last year and were expected to reach 20 by the end of 2024. They are only doing 11.2M in quarterly revenue right now but I’m hoping to get in on the early stages of a big winner if they can keep their treatment center expansion going.
TMDX: -29%
Only holding a tiny amount to pay attention to the next earnings release.
For 2025, I’m hoping that I can put some learnings into action, be more decisive on the selling side, outperform the market, and create some gains that allow me to better my life. Happy New Year, everyone!