This was my best month ever since I’ve been posting my results, with a 55% gain, after a 27% gain in April. These last couple months make me thank my lucky stars that I found this board and that Saul’s logic resonated with me, in being willing to stay invested and wait for growth to win out.
I don’t doubt that, similar to the last couple of years, growth will level off after the fever runs too hot. That’s ok. I will remain almost 100% invested and trim my top stocks after they push over 20-25%. I believe in my companies long-term and will ride the rollercoaster.
However I’m starting to get concerned about over-concentration in the AI industry in my portfolio so will be on the lookout for good opportunities elsewhere. We’re starting to hear companies cut back on AI spend as their AI bills outpace the productivity they are able to provide. I suspect it’s because so many companies are getting sold by the hyperscalers on using AI for EVERYTHING, including transcribing and summarizing meetings, which is probably a tremendous amount of compute all just to absolve people of the need to take a few notes. Frankly, I hope there is a reckoning when it comes to this type of AI use vs. the AI-native products, services and companies that will be born in the 2nd wave. But I suspect an initial pull back will happen when businesses turn their back on the “have AI do absolutely everything” era. In fact it may be happening now. But the 2nd wave is coming now and will grow. Right now I’m 76/24 AI vs. non-AI. 60/40 would make me more comfortable.
I made a lot of moves in May and my portfolio looks a bit different. I sold out of Pagaya and Upstart, and trimmed both ALAB and NBIS multiple times due to over-allocation as both exploded in May. I started a medium size position in CRDO and a small one in SIMO, amongst other smaller shifts. I’ll cover all the moves and reactions to earnings below.
My year looks like this:
JAN: -7.02%
FEB: -14.81%
MAR: +1.57%
APR: +27.11%
MAY: +54.54%
YTD: +53.34%
My portfolio looked like this as of May 29th:
SALES: PGY and UPST
I’m sad to have finally cut ties with Pagaya, and less so about Upstart. I really felt like Pagaya was a promising company, and they seemed to be on the verge of growth before geo-political chaos became too much to bear. They have purposefully slowed their growth in the anticipation of an economic crisis especially in their leg of K-shaped economy, and it’s probably incredibly wise. But they are no longer a blossoming growth stock, with YoY growth falling to 10%. The guide was good, but it was time to cut ties. UPST I was disappointed in the flat guide, and they had been on the chopping block due to slowing growth as well. After they filed for a bank charter, I was intrigued in what would be coming next, but I didn’t hear anything to keep me in it.
I used the funds from both primarily to start a sizeable position in CRDO in anticipation of earnings, after seeing ALAB take off.
ALAB: +73% on the Month, A Earnings
Earnings were impressive, with YoY growth leveling off from last quarters dip, staying up at 93%. The guide was for +17% QoQ…say no more. The market reacted as such. I had to trim them twice on the way up due to getting up at 21-22% of my portfolio. The valuation is really high at this point, which is my only concern. The numbers have earned it, I suppose. A lot has been said about them recently so I’ll say no more.
NBIS: +66.7%, A Earnings
I felt earnings were incredible with revenue up 683% YoY and guiding to $3.2B in 2026 revenue. The power story seems strong, execution seems strong…this company has been covered ad nauseum but I’m on the bullish side of the argument, despite my AI cautioning in the preamble.
APP: +37%, B Earnings
My confidence in APP is shaking a bit. YoY growth rate has been slowly ticking down since the sold off the gaming business: 77 - 68 - 66 - 59. This last guide was only 5% QoQ, also the lowest in that time. I know they are about to publicly launch Axon. I know eCommerce and CTV are supposed to be these huge opportunities. But I work at a large marketing agency (in media!), and I hear about Applovin 10x more on this board than I do in my job. It’s odd. I’m also torn on the Gist announcement. I don’t think it’ll be a big drag on their focus, but it could also be an early sign that they aren’t finding growth outside of mobile gaming as easy as they thought.
I did trim them after earnings, a bit, to take them into my 2nd tier.
MU: +87%, No Earnings yet
The biggest gainer of the month didn’t even report yet. They recently broke into the $1T club, which is crazy. Despite that, growth is only accelerating and they are the 3rd most affordable source of growth in my portfolio, with low EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA compared to revenue growth. I did not touch the position in May.
IREN: +40%, A Earnings
I already commented on their earnings, some were bothered by the timing of their news releases, but I felt they were pertinent to the earnings release and call they were about to have. AI Revenue is showing up in a more meaningful way as Bitcoin revenue is intentionally phased out. They have strong contracts and relationships in place as well as power, and are making strategic acquisitions to position themselves for the future. It all seems positive and as such I added to them pretty significantly to get them back into my Tier 2 after trimming them in March.
CRDO: +26%, A/B Earnings
I added much of my funds from my sales to Credo in May, in high hopes for earnings. Earnings was a couple of days ago right when the tide started to shift away from AI infrastructure, so I don’t take much stock in the earnings reaction. I gave them “A” earnings because 157% YoY Revenue growth and 68% gross margin is incredible, plus a solid guide at +7.5% QoQ. But also “B” Earnings compared to their typical earnings which have been outrageous. They had their lowest % beat since early 2024 (1.6%) and their lowest QoQ revenue growth since early 2024 (7.4%). I’m staying put, with CRDO in the 3rd tier of my portfolio.
ETON: +26%, B Earnings
Eton’s YoY growth rate dropped by half, from 83% to 41%. However, they raised annual guidance by 9% and announced 3 new products not reflected in Q1 performance during earnings and since: DESMODA, HEMANGEOL, and IMPAVIDO. The laps will continue to get harder, so they’ll need to continue to beat and raise if they’re going to retain their growth rate and stay in the 3rd tier of my portfolio.
NVDA: +6%, A Earnings
I keep wanting to find a reason to sell Nvidia but I can’t. They just keep performing and while they are the biggest company in the world already, it seems like they are intent on finding new ways to defy expectations. Their new categorization of revenue would suggest that edge computing might become their new revenue frontier, although AI Clouds, Industrial, and Enterprise is growing faster.
ASTS: 53.32%, B Earnings
Revenue fell sharply from $54M to $15M. However, they reiterated guidance and achieved record internet speeds from their satellites. Production is still on track for 45 satellites. Earnings initially dipped from the decline in revenue, but then bounced back throughout the month. Much of this can likely be attributed to Space-related ETFs and hype surrounding SpaceX, but I’ll take it. If the next launch in the next couple of weeks goes as scheduled, it could be great for the stock, and revenue should bounce back sharply over the course of the year. I added a tiny bit from one of my trims.
CLS: -5%, A Earnings
One of my only positions to not grow during the month, which is odd considering they had great earnings. I didn’t realize how consistent their earnings are, including beats & raises, until I started writing this and decided to manually enter them into my spreadsheet. It’s clockwork unlike anything I’ve ever seen. And they are showing a very clear acceleration. The margins aren’t great, but the rest of it is as consistent as it comes. I added a bit from my trims but they remain in my lower tier until someone above majorly slips up.
SIMO: +2%, A Earnings
I started a small position after WPR’s post on SIMO. 105% growth with solid margins and a guide for the same next quarter was good enough for me. 19.5% Net Margin. I started a small position but certainly could try to build it moving forward.
SEI: -7%, B Earnings
Growth rate slipped from 87% to 55% which I didn’t love, but Net Income was a record $21M and margins increased. They also announced a third long term power contract. Not bad enough to sell, not good enough to increase.
That’s it for me, thanks for the great discussions lately. Love to see an active board, even if I don’t understand half of it! Good luck everyone.