I’m very late to this last month’s review as the holidays and work have left very little time for “extracurriculars”. It was very bad for me as it was for many others, with fear taking over the market especially as pertains to AI but rippling far beyond. I’ll share more about my thoughts on my companies below, as well as my earnings reviews, since pretty much everyone reported in November.
I share a bit of the trepidation about AI hype, but not in a generalized sort of way. I am much more interested in some of the newer AI-specific companies and foundational companies, vs. legacy tech players trying to get in on the game (Oracle). There will be winners and losers and currently the fear is a little obtuse.
I’ve also observed over the last 6 quarters or so, that many of my companies are so reliant on earnings but also, so reliant on overall market sentiment DURING earnings. Net net, many companies can report great earnings and if overall sentiment is low, they’ll miss out on basically their only catalyst for stock price growth, and suffer from low volume/low news thereafter. Momentum feels so important for the market right now, whether it’s macro, sector or company related…and the actual numbers feel somewhat “secondary” or more of a cherry on top. I’m trying to not let it change my approach, as I’ve seen patience pay off when the market realizes they are missing a company I’m holding, but it’s a tough lesson in patience.
As mentioned before I’ve begun adjusting my allocations each quarter based on the latest batch of reports, and their ability to consistently meet/beat expectations along with their trendlines. This quarter I adjusted to three tiers:
Tier 1: APP, PGY, ALAB
Tier 2: RIGL, UPST, NBIS, ETON, IREN, NVDA, CRMD
Tier 3: GEVO, HOOD, ELVA
I hope for a better December. So far, it’s a very mixed bag. Company-specific thoughts below.
Here are my results to date and current portfolio:
JAN: -2.42%
FEB: -1.15%
MAR: -20.60%
APR: +7.91%
MAY: +24.92
JUN: +11.48%
JUL: +17.66%
AUG**:** +12.85%
SEP: +19.52%
OCT: -0.32%
NOV: -15.32%
YTD: +40.28%
Company Reviews & Earnings Grades
APP - “A” Earnings, -6% MoM
One of the most straightforward companies and reports out there, at least for me especially since it comes from my industry. 68% YoY revenue growth, 92% YoY Net Income growth…with a monster raise at 13% of this quarter’s revenue. Yes, they’ve adjusted their comps but just to give fair comparison so you can get a sense of where they are going. With their eComm offering in early innings, and big moves towards automation within marketing, I imagine this will be a top holding for a while.
PGY - “A” Earnings, -7.5% MoM
Pagaya reported great earnings which I covered in a full post here: https://discussion.fool.com/t/pgy-q3-2025-earnings/122092
I won’t repeat the numbers in the post above but I will say that I’ve never felt more confident in their growth prospects, and less confident in the market’s response to them. Had they reported in a more positive environment, they might be back at $40+ per share, but instead they are currently at $21/share. If they weren’t such a high allocation already, I’d be adding.
ALAB - “A” Earnings, -16% MoM
I thought they had a great report, with revenue and net income still growing over 100% YoY, and they continue to raise at about 8% QoQ. Very consistent execution, and while they are getting caught up in the negativity surrounding AI, the numbers from NVDA tell you that the build-out side of things is not slowing down. I see no reason to doubt them moving forward.
RIGL - “A” Earnings, +60% MoM
My only company in the green in November, and it grew substantially. It got a good bump from earnings and then caught market attention and continued to climb. I did a full writeup here: RIGL Earnings & Overview
Some highlights:
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Product revenue up 65% YoY. This is down from 75% last quarter but still impressive
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Net Income up 125% YoY
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93% Gross Margin
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Raised FY guide from $275M to $287.5 at the midpoint
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All 3 product lines grew at +50%
I added to them to get them into my 2nd tier, and will consider adding further next earnings report if they beat and raise. The guide is really conservative and represents a slowdown from $70M in revenue to $63M, and I’m not sure yet if they’re sandbaggers.
UPST - “C” Earnings, -6% MoM
Upstart had a pretty mixed report, which @drew1618t wrote up here: https://discussion.fool.com/t/upst-q3-and-my-thoughts/122057
The good: 71% YoY revenue growth and record Adjusted Net Income. They raised next quarter revenue target by 4%
The bad: they missed their revenue guide this quarter, and lowered the FY revenue guide.
After a string of great reports, I saw no reason to completely exit due to one misstep, but I did decide to put them into my 2nd tier.
NBIS - “B” Earnings, -27% MoM
The board knows all too well what has been going down with NBIS and IREN, so I will just share my perspective. I am a little bit wary of them becoming like a SMCI, but I’m really intrigued by their ownership stakes in smaller AI companies that could pay off, and the fact of the matter is that they are currently growing really fast and some of the concerns that Smorgasbord and others share seem to be a ways off. The Capex did concern me though, so I gave them a B on my scoresheet.
I’m curious how long the market’s souring on AI will last. I think the concerns are overblown. Not everyone will be winners (I don’t think Oracle has any reason to be a winner), but I think the technology is going to change every business and spawn a lot of really great new companies. Will Nebius be one of them? I’m not sure but I think it’s too early to bail on them now. So I cut them down to a Tier 2 position and am a little more wary, but not ready to jump ship. Currently tough to watch the market though.
ETON - “A” Earnings, -21% MoM
ETON really suffered after earnings for reasons which I don’t understand besides a one time charge that caused them to miss on EPS. I did a brief review here: https://discussion.fool.com/t/eton-q3-2025-earnings/122068
It’s growing at over 100% but from a tiny base, but with a new product coming next quarter and a return to normal margins, I’m expecting they’ll recover from their post-earnings drop.
IREN - “B” Earnings, -10% MoM
IREN continued to put up great numbers at 355% YoY Revenue growth but fell into the same bucket as NBIS with regards to the capex requirements to build out its data centers, and has since been swept under the wave of AI negativity, exacerbated by a public stock offering. I have IREN and NBIS tied together at the hip in my mind, and have them both in tier 2 while I wait for the dust to settle.
NVDA - “A” Earnings, -12.5%
I can’t imagine a better report than what they put up once again, but the macro AI fear has left nothing unscathed. The reacceleration plus the future revenue predictions for 2026 are both mind-boggling. It really should be a Tier 1 company for me but it’s clear that the market can’t wrap their head around them growing into a 5-6T company or more, despite their numbers.
Just looking at the QoQ numbers, they look like small-cap growth numbers! 23% QoQ Net Income Growth, 22% Revenue growth, guiding for 14% revenue growth which I imagine they’ll beat because they always do. Ridiculous.
They got dinged by some news that Amazon putting out a better chip. Amazon? The company that makes bootleg versions of every other product on earth? Please.
CRMD - “A” Earnings, -12.5%
@drew1618t had another great writeup on CRMD earnings here: https://discussion.fool.com/t/crmd-q3-2024-earnings-the-numbers-are-even-better-than-expected/122109
I had gotten out of CRMD after what I thought was a really poor Q2 report, and I only got back in after reading Drew’s post. They sold off a couple of days later but have since recovered. I don’t quite trust them yet, so I kept them in the 2nd tier. They fall into the bucket of stocks that have very little news in between earnings, so it may be another wait and see holding until next earnings or a sudden reversal in sentiment for growth/small caps.
GEVO - “C” Earnings, -8.5%
Probably the most complicated company I own (which is admittedly offputting) but also a pretty cool opportunity in renewable energy. It looks like revenue will be a bit lumpy. It flattened out between the last two quarters, and while it’s up about 2,000% YoY, their laps will become much more difficult in two quarters. But their carbon credit business is just starting out and their long-term goal of producing low-carbon jet fuel is a huge market opportunity here in the US. If they don’t show some QoQ growth next earnings report, I’ll probably sell out of this one.
HOOD
I finally bit the bullet and took a small position in HOOD at the end of the month. I’m kicking myself for not getting in a long time ago, since I’ve been a customer since day one and am a case study as to how they’ve expanded their offering. I’ve long been a believer that they will be a game changer in finance, in a different but related space to PGY & UPST, which is the democratization of financial access. They’ve had some lumpy growth but it’s been above 36% since the start of 2024 and Net Income is growing steadily, and they have crazy GM, above 90%.
With the government paving the way for legalized betting in terms of prediction markets, there seems to be no boundaries to where they could potentially play (I do have some personal issues with this and hope we put the brakes on legalized betting). The ease of which you can move money around within their ecosystem is a huge differentiator in my opinion. From an actual product and story standpoint, I think it’s up there with the best of them, so as long as the numbers continue, I’ll be turning this into a bigger position.
ELVA
I started a position at the beginning of the month and almost immediately they announced a public offering. Terrible timing! They had really strong earnings last week which showed their growth rate continuing to accelerate from 67% to 77%. Net Income tripled. They are starting from a really low base so hopefully these type of numbers can last.
Whew, well I’m glad to have gotten through November and gotten through this portfolio review. Happy Holidays everyone! Live it up, don’t let the market get you down.