Puts, calls, options, growth rate, other issues

Hi Brittlerock,

I don’t use options because it’s (A) too much trouble, (B) distracting, (C) a zero-sum game (D) if I want to buy a stock I buy it, and if I want to sell a stock I sell it…rather than risking not buying it or not selling it to try to skim a couple of dollars. It’s not the way I think. I know that other people love options and I’m in a minority, but so be it.

I don’t know most of the stocks on your list. We have recently discussed AIOCF and IPGP and why I’m not in them. I can’t talk to the others.

If you want to gain 20% a year you can’t just hold stocks that you think will go up 20%, because at least a fifth of them will disappoint you and go up 10% or less. I do have a couple of slower growers like WAB and CELG, but most of my companies have the potential or rising 30% or more. (I don’t expect my companies to double in a year. I’m not sure where you got that idea but it would be a very unrealistic expectation).

I do find that reducing the number of stocks to my fifteen or so favorites tends to focus my mind and also makes them easier to follow.

Hope this helps.

Saul

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Saul,
Thanks for the prompt reply. I don’t hold stocks that I think will only go up 20% in a year, I hold stocks that I think will go up at least 20% in a year. My quandary is about whether I should sell them in order to reinvest in stocks that might perform better - or might not . . . Of course this is true for every investment decision, so maybe there’s something going on at a deeper level that I need to ferret out???

As for options, I’ve pretty much arrived at the same place you’re at. Despite the fact that they can boost a portfolio’s return by 10% - 15%, it’s a lot of extra effort and one more thing to pay attention to that comes with a built-in deadline. Since I retired, I don’t like deadlines (actually, I didn’t like them before I retired either). And I guess I hadn’t given it much thought before, but it is a zero-sum game. I don’t like to play those kind of games even if I do come out the winner.

Just out of curiosity, do you have a lot of outside interests and activities or is investing pretty much it? I have been making an extra effort to get on top of my investments this year, but I find it really difficult. First, the things you often say only takes a few minutes - well, that may be true if you have a body of information established and you’re just adding to it, and the company is kind enough to report non-GAAP numbers that you agree with. But if you’re starting from scratch, and you don’t know if you agree with the non-GAAP reporting, or there ain’t any or it’s in a foreign currency and you need to convert to USD and need to look up historical exchange rates for when the company reported the last x quarters, etc. Well, the whole exercise is very time consuming.

And I’m sort of a modern Renaissance man (that’s probably an exaggeration) but I’ve got a ton of outside interests and activities. I’m currently rebuilding my very large deck because the (expletive) guy who built it originally use standard lumber and it had become dangerous due to rot. This is work I do myself, I don’t hire guys to do it. I play guitar in a band. I build and repair musical instruments. This year, I’ve started a vegetable garden with my wife, I started by building frames for raised beds. I’m planning an East coast trip to visit my daughter now living in Connecticut with her new husband, but while back there, NYC, Cape Cod, Washington DC. And so on . . .

My former wife said I’m this way because I’m a Gemini. My current wife is Chinese, I’m now a pig, so that can’t be it. Point is, where do you find the time to focus so much attention on investing, or is it pretty much the only thing you focus on?

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Just out of curiosity, do you have a lot of outside interests and activities or is investing pretty much it?

I read a lot, also hike or bicycle an hour or more a day (at least five days a week). We spend part of the year in NYC, and when there we go out to plays and movies a real lot, and eat out in ethnic restaurants. I also play a French card game with friends once a week when I’m in France. I’ve written about fifteen books in the past 10 years or so, mostly only of interest to people who are interested in learning French, but some others as well.

I have been making an extra effort to get on top of my investments this year, but I find it really difficult.

The key is that for me, investing is a game. It’s fun. I’ve always enjoyed games.

First, the things you often say only takes a few minutes - well, that may be true if you have a body of information established and you’re just adding to it, and the company is kind enough to report non-GAAP numbers that you agree with. But if you’re starting from scratch, and you don’t know if you agree with the non-GAAP reporting, or there ain’t any or it’s in a foreign currency and you need to convert to USD and need to look up historical exchange rates for when the company reported the last x quarters, etc.

I only have one stock now that gives earnings in another currency (CRTO). I gave that as one of my reasons for getting out of AMAVF and AIOCF (to simplify my life). That’s also one of the reasons why I have reduced the number of stocks I follow.

If you are starting from scratch, I’d consider only trying to get the statistics on the stocks in your current portfolio one at a time, over a period of weeks, not all at once. It’s too much if you try to do them all at once and you don’t remember what you learned.

If you can’t get non-gaap numbers because the company doesn’t have much stock based compensation and other bizarre GAAP additions and subtractions, use the GAAP figures for a good approximation until you have the time to go back and get more accurate numbers.

Hope that helps

Saul

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Just for the fun of it you can see Saul’s books http://www.amazon.com/Saul-H.-Rosenthal/e/B001JS2I8Y/ref=ntt…

I bought this one, it looks like a lot of fun!
http://www.amazon.com/French-Faux-Amis-Combined-Book/dp/1604…

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Super cool! Saul, you never cease to amaze :slight_smile:

Fletch

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Just for the fun of it you can see Saul’s books http://www.amazon.com/Saul-H.-Rosenthal/e/B001JS2I8Y/ref=ntt…… I bought this one, it looks like a lot of fun! http://www.amazon.com/French-Faux-Amis-Combined-Book/dp/1604…

Hi Flygal, Thanks for the plug. I hope you enjoy the book.

For those who don’t have much or any French, they might enjoy French Words You Use Without Knowing It more. It tells interesting stories about the origin of English words.

Saul

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Thank you very much for posting the links to Saul’s books. His picture will now replace the image I’ve had of him in my mind’s eye. -DJ

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Super cool! Saul, you never cease to amaze :slight_smile:
Fletch

Thanks Fletch

Saul,

Your whole range of knowledge and activities confirm that you’re an amazing guy, and so especial human being as I imagined!

Good to have a picture to put you a face :wink:

Thank you for all you are doing for all of us “little Sauls”

Maria

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Saul,

You have lived a richly eclectic life indeed…and show no signs of stopping!

Glad to know you live next door to us in San Antonio…one of our favorite places to visit.

Jim

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Saul,
I’m so glad I asked that off-hand question! You’re a very interesting guy. And I’m sure there’s more to it than this little bit of insight. My interest is piqued, but I’ll refrain from prying, besides, this board is not about our personal lives, but it’s gratifying to hear you are a multi-dimensional person.

I find it interesting that your daughter is fluent in Chinese. I have just a smattering of Mandarin, as I’ve often mentioned my wife is Chinese, but mostly we communicate in English. We use translation dictionaries on our phones a lot. Mandarin is one very hard language, I’ve pretty much given up on trying to learn written Chinese at this point - no alphabet and no phonetic connection between the written and spoken language. It takes an enormous amount of memory work.

I too have a cat, like yours I’m sure, he’s the smartest cat ever . . . He only drinks water from a cup, I mean really, bowls are for dogs.

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Mandarin is one very hard language, I’ve pretty much given up on trying to learn written Chinese at this point - no alphabet and no phonetic connection between the written and spoken language.

My daughter has told me though that various dialects use the same written language. For instance, Cantonese and Mandarin are different languages, but if someone is reading the newspaper and sees the ideogram for house, the mandarin speaker sees “house” in Mandarin and the Cantonese speaker sees house in Cantonese. So they can all read the same newspapers, books, etc. Interesting. This is very off-topic though, and if you’d like to respond to what I said, please do it off line.
Thanks
Saul

<<For those who don’t have much or any French, they might enjoy French Words You Use Without Knowing It more.>>

Or alternatively, Sex Over Forty or, The New Sex Over Forty :slight_smile:

http://www.amazon.com/Saul-H.-Rosenthal/e/B001JS2I8Y/ref=ntt…

okapimoon

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I’m totally recommending that! :slight_smile: Karen

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<<For those who don’t have much or any French, they might enjoy French Words You Use Without Knowing It more.>> Or alternatively, Sex Over Forty or, The New Sex Over Forty :slight_smile:

Sorry okapimoon, those have great advice but they are 20 years old and thus are a bit outdated as far as the latest meds, etc.

Sorry okapimoon, those have great advice but they are 20 years old and thus are a bit outdated as far as the latest meds, etc.

Oh well, then, I guess it’ll just have to be French Words You Know Without Using Them instead of Sex for me…

okapimoon

But if you’ll settle for all the good stuff, and not worry about the meds, Go for it!

Saul

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Flygal, Saul and all,

I bought the “French Faux Amis” book as well.

I subscribe to a French language blog and the author was talking about ‘Faux Amis’. I became interested and checked Amazon for a book on the subject and did a double take when I recognized Saul’s name.

I’ll have to go on Amazon and write a recommendation.

Small world and great book!

Fool on!
J.

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I was personally hoping for the update Sex Over 60…

PS.

Happy Fool anniversary J. That’s a lot of balloons!

David

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Saul, you’re the man! French linguist, world traveler, master investor, and belote player! Thank you again for so generously and patiently giving us your time and thoughts.

  • Matt
    Long on Saul’s health, wealth and family
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