Inflation! Inflation! Maybe it’s taming - I certainly don’t know. And the talking heads are all about a huge ‘relief rally’ should the latest number come out better than expected.
As I’ve said many times here- I’m a novice with paper assets - stocks. And playing dumb – well - it seems to be an easy part for me to play.
But if the Fed starts Quantitative Tightening - is that not a concern - maybe even as big a concern as inflation?
In my layman’s terms - the Fed Sugar Daddy for all this time has paid the rent and car payment and spa appointments for his girlfriends… (investors and self-proclaimed investors). When that support goes…doesn’t she have to find a new way to support herself, or…pare down the lifestyle?
I just feel so many are just looking for a reason to celebrate…and this QT should be on the radar screen more than it is.
Oh as far as inflation - those high prices people paid for homes - I would think they’ll expect, and try hard to get rent commensurate to those prices barring collapse. Furthermore - cost of labor - people - got raises. The lower echelon - who is DESPERATE - regardless of how the 401K’ers and advanced degreed professionals are doing. They got paltry raises - and there’s a labor shortage…I just don’t see employers saying “we’re taking the raises away” point being - labor costs will at very least not be low.
Unless they really really stomp on the economy - again- how is that reason to celebrate and plan for ‘relief rally’
Disclosure: Healthy amount of dry powder I’ve been impatiently waiting to deploy. I am skittish to buy rehab homes because for now - I feel prices are still a bit high ESPECIALLY if future retail values might be lower. So, yeah, maybe I’m worried I’ll miss out if things rebound marketwise but really…I feel things have to get much worse economically - to bring down labor costs and truly bring down inflation to what the fed SAYS they want.
Otherwise, it’s like I’ve posted before: 4-5% inflation is the new normal.