Ideas beyond cash

This board has been gloomy lately. I’m wondering just how gloomy compared to past times, like 2008, or 1998, but I wasn’t around then. But I can understand the gloom. It looks like stimulus directly to consumers certainly helped spur inflation by increasing demand. And supply didn’t jump, either because it couldn’t, or because companies though supply would fix itself or the demand was transitory and not worth investing in. Who knows. And Russia is complicating all things energy, and all things food.

Recession and/or war appear to be foregone conclusions. Recession yes. War with Russia, possible but hopefully not.

So I am increasing my share of FPI in my IRA from 6% to 9%. This is a farm REIT and is called Farmland Partners, Inc. YTD it is very positive. For me personally it has done great this year. With rising food prices, fertilizer shortages and such I think this is a solid bet for at least the next year.

Other thoughts. Mid-2015 I discovered REITs for the first time. In particular I was in self-storage, such as EXR, CUBE and PSA. I have friends who own several facilities themselves. They describe this as a recession proof business. People might be forced to downsize the dwelling, but often won’t part ways with belongings. They need space to keep them. I’m dipping my toes back in here too.

Thoughts appreciated.

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Thoughts appreciated.

The gloom is Mish DNA doing its thing!

I’m continuing doing what I was doing, holding the long term holds and selling covered calls on the income shares. It’s been working fine for me. While down YTD I’m beating the three main indexes, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ.


**Today right now:**
^DJI    -0.48%
^GSPC   -0.35%			-	
^IXIC   -0.64%
Capt'n   2.26%

The Captain

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I’m wondering just how gloomy compared to past times, like 2008, or 1998

2006,2007,2008 were the best of times on the board, Mish had a real estate broker, in Florida I believe, that he was in close contact with. We saw the mortgage fiasco in detail in slow motion … the guy discussed the absurd 3% teaser rates for 3 months after which they would go up to 9%. And the process of jamming people into them - around closing time, brokers saying “it’s such a great deal this is all I got you, you don’t have an alternative”

2006 teaser loans “just refinance before the reset”
2007 that ability to refinance as the teaser rate expired was closed off
2008 jingle mail and imploding debt pools.

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I have friends who own several facilities themselves. They describe this as a recession proof business. People might be forced to downsize the dwelling, but often won’t part ways with belongings. They need space to keep them.

I’ve owned a trailer park and storage facility for over 20 years and they are located next door to one another. Both fairly recession proof for the above given reason.

JLC

1 Like

So I am increasing my share of FPI in my IRA from 6% to 9%. This is a farm REIT and is called Farmland Partners, Inc. YTD it is very positive. For me personally it has done great this year. With rising food prices, fertilizer shortages and such I think this is a solid bet for at least the next year.

Global food prices are dropping, and pretty substantially too:

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

4 Likes

Along the same lines as your FPI pick, but from a slightly different view.

I want a core idea that seems to have been unfairly beaten up.
Not currently, but Qualcomm (QCOM) was such a case a few months back