Mungofitch recommended QQQE as a way to play the growth comeback should the bottom indicator trigger. He liked the returns in the mid-$60 range, but now we are seeing it at under $60 today! I calculated that the current PE of the entire index is around 23 times eps. This seems entirely reasonable to me, so I’ve started a small position. If it gets under 20 times eps I will be tempted to take a significant position.
21 Likes
Agree. I bought QQQE as well in late June at $62 as I believe Jim related it’s average annual return may be inflation + 8% or so. He felt it was not cheap here but at least a reasonable valuation and had better valuation/ projected returns vs. RSP (as I understood his posts).
7 Likes
Just want to wake this thread up for a moment.
I’m not American, so I do not know enough about the financial guts of most of the companies in the Nasdaq except where they overlap with my interests and background in computing.
It seems to me that the Nasdaq got absolutely hammered in 2000-2002 with a drop of almost 80% that took 16 years to recover from.
I like the trend growth in the Nasdaq, but worry I might find myself in a bad situation if it turns out the trend growth has come from low / lowering interest rates in the last 20 years.
How similar is the nasdaq of today, to the nasdaq of 2000? Valuations and company profiles. How exposed to rates? Can anyone offer insight?
4 Likes
Another good question would be the expense ratio of .35 versus .15 (qqqm). How much would that eat into your returns over the long run making it worth the equal weight.
Great to hear thoughts on this thread. With the past few years, I’ve decided to allocate new money to indexes over individual stocks. I’ve learned that no one knows what’s going to happen and I’d rather simplify my investments in the case that I’m no longer to manage or around.
6 Likes
I’ve learned that no one knows what’s going to happen and I’d rather simplify my investments in the case that I’m no longer to manage or around.
Not only that, it’s emotionally wearing watching the market constantly for bargains. It used to be fun, figuring out what might happen, but now with ‘FOMO energy!’ the markets seem to have no connection to news or economics whatsoever.
5 Likes
I can’t help picking up an individual stock here and there, but for the most part I am also simplifying. I have not been able to get anyone in the family interested in investing, so am gradually going to a KIS set up of broad indexes. We no longer have to kill the market and it’s getting to be time for autopilot. At some point I want to retire my role as investor. Frankly the change to the Fool has made it less enjoyable anyway.
IP
16 Likes
Massive difference in actual earnings from 2000 vs. today. Sure, some of the cloud names were bid to the moon over and then decimated this year, but the big dogs of the Nasdaq are incredibly profitable and with deep moats, at reasonable to cheap valuations. I’d suggest that a deep pain situation would be 3-5 year flat outlook rather than 16, unless the world blows up.
And if you are worried about that, the deep out of the money put is always a means of insurance.
Regards,
Ben
2 Likes