“Since February 25, 2022, to the present, I would have had 9 out 9 successful trades with NO losses. The best run would be from 201.45 to 312.45.”
I’m going to call BS on your claim of 9 wins and no losses on ENOH from Feb 25,2022 to present using Simon’s two rules. Below is a marked up chart that covers just a couple weeks of time, and already there is a losing trade, namely what happens on Mar 9 vs the need to get out two days later (at the earliest, if one trades off the candles), and on Mar 14, if one sticks with Simon’s rules.
I’m way too lazy to walk through a whole year of trades, nor do I have to do so to refute your claim of no losses. Simon is a trend-following system. The right/wrong, profile for a trend-following system tends to be 35%/65%. For sure, when a basket of 30 to 40 trading systems, most of them trend-following, is thrown against 500 days of data for a couple hundred stocks, a few rare instances will show up where a particular system and a particular stock achieve a right/wrong hit rate as high as 65%, sometimes even 80%, sometimes even 100%. But those results aren’t robust. They quickly break down when any trading system is applied across a wide variety of tradeables and market conditions. Thus, them wanting to use Simon (or a version of it) should expect to be wrong a lot of the time, and they need to put into place defensive measures to manage that fact.
Is your ‘Simon Says’ system a sound and useful tool? Absolutely. In its HA smoothed version, nothing does a better job of vetting “hot stock tips” and keeping would-be investors out of trouble. Will using it turn them into multi-millionaires in a year or two or ten? Not a chance. Far more likely is that they will blow up their account for not properly controlling their bet sizes. That’s Simon’s weakness. He has nothing useful to say about ‘risk-management’, and that’s the key to market survival.
But that’s also an easily fixed problem you and me should work on, namely, for any given account size and proposed investment (when binned into one of three risks tranches), how much can be prudently bought?
Lastly, I’d again urge one and all to listen to this tune and to take its lessons to heart. The Whipsaw Song - YouTube