Quill: Your Claimed Trades on ENPH?

[Arindam]

“Since February 25, 2022, to the present, I would have had 9 out 9 successful trades with NO losses. The best run would be from 201.45 to 312.45.”

Quill,

I’m going to call BS on your claim of 9 wins and no losses on ENOH from Feb 25,2022 to present using Simon’s two rules. Below is a marked up chart that covers just a couple weeks of time, and already there is a losing trade, namely what happens on Mar 9 vs the need to get out two days later (at the earliest, if one trades off the candles), and on Mar 14, if one sticks with Simon’s rules.

I’m way too lazy to walk through a whole year of trades, nor do I have to do so to refute your claim of no losses. Simon is a trend-following system. The right/wrong, profile for a trend-following system tends to be 35%/65%. For sure, when a basket of 30 to 40 trading systems, most of them trend-following, is thrown against 500 days of data for a couple hundred stocks, a few rare instances will show up where a particular system and a particular stock achieve a right/wrong hit rate as high as 65%, sometimes even 80%, sometimes even 100%. But those results aren’t robust. They quickly break down when any trading system is applied across a wide variety of tradeables and market conditions. Thus, them wanting to use Simon (or a version of it) should expect to be wrong a lot of the time, and they need to put into place defensive measures to manage that fact.

Is your ‘Simon Says’ system a sound and useful tool? Absolutely. In its HA smoothed version, nothing does a better job of vetting “hot stock tips” and keeping would-be investors out of trouble. Will using it turn them into multi-millionaires in a year or two or ten? Not a chance. Far more likely is that they will blow up their account for not properly controlling their bet sizes. That’s Simon’s weakness. He has nothing useful to say about ‘risk-management’, and that’s the key to market survival.

But that’s also an easily fixed problem you and me should work on, namely, for any given account size and proposed investment (when binned into one of three risks tranches), how much can be prudently bought?

Lastly, I’d again urge one and all to listen to this tune and to take its lessons to heart. The Whipsaw Song - YouTube

[Quillnpenn]

re: ENPH
re: Simon Sez III charts enclosed.

HELP me with the Arithmetic. I didn’t include the profit at each successful trade.

Going to use the open prices for both in and out.

Anything that makes money from point A ( Low ) to point B ( High ) is a successful Trade. It pays the rent, gas in the car and food on the table.

In on 2/25 @ 148 - out on 4/6 @ 206.60 Success #1

In on 4/26 @ 151 - out on 5/6 @ 188.89 Success #2

In on 5/13 @ 146.60 - out on 6/9 @ 203.64 Success #3

In on 6/17 @ 170.50 - out on 7/11 @ 214.61 Success #4

In on 7/18 @ 191.61 - out on 9/9 @ 312.00 Success #5 with a huge profit.

In on 10/21@ 243.20 - out on 11/02 @ 300.00 Success #6

In on 11/08 @ 274.60 - out on 12/06 @ 332.99 Success # 7

In on 1/11 @ 229.22 - out on 1/18 @ 245.90 Success # 8

In on 1/26 @ 213.90 -out on 2/09 @ 221.71 Success #9

I am currently showing 9 out 9 Successful trades with ZERO losses.

Do you want me to show COST since May of 2007 when I got laid off.

Do you want me to do the SPDRs , Ellevest and the ARKs Portfolios.

[Lakedog]

Just a quick comment. I don’t follow Simon-whatever, but was looking at your charts and noticed something interesting. Stockcharts Sharpcharts (normal) prints more pricelabels than their ACP. Don’t know what it means, but thought it might be of interest in sorting some differences out.

Sharpcharts:

Roughly the same time frame ACP:

Look especially in the Sept-Oct area. I copied the Sharpchart before the market opened and the ACP after. Note the new print in the ACP this morning. I checked and it printed in Sharp as well. Whatever.

Starting to get light out. Rain has stopped and radar looks better. Time to go warmup the tractor, sharpen the chainsaw and get some work done. Two beavers just swam by ending their shift. Time for mine. Later.

Lakedog

[Arindam]

Quill,

Much thanks for that list of paper trades. I have no doubt that if the tape could be rerun, you’d make money, because you’re a smart, savvy trader. But our entries and exits differ enough that I couldn’t --and wouldn’t-- trade the tape the same way.

That’s what I was protesting. Some of your entries and exits broke my rules, but not yours, which is the only thing that matters. But that fact does make it difficult for others to implement your methods, much less program them, so the trades could be reproduced as you would have done it.

No surprise there, right? because that’s exactly what happens when programmers try to create expert trading systems that mimic specific traders. Never does the rule set fully capture what actual traders do intuitively, because they know from long experience what needs to be done and just do it. When asked afterwards Why? They are puzzled by the question, because the answer is so obvious to them. What was done was what needed to be done at that moment, in that market.

Arindam