In 3 days US goes to poll, already 70 million folks have voted in early voting. Thank you for voting.
A trump win means we are potentially looking at across the board tariffs, and a Harris win means mostly business as usual. In both scenarios, debt is going to go up, under Trump probably debt might grow faster along with inflation.
After the last 2 years of 25% gains each year, I am wondering how much juice is left out. I hear about the $6 T cash on the sidelines. But that cash is not earning nothing but earning decent return so far. So how much of it is going to be deployed in stock market post election needs to be seen.
Harris win may trigger some folks to take profit this year and pay the taxes this year, rather than wait till next year. I am considering such a move, but the potential tax bill is daunting. so I hinted my wife out taxes could go up, I thought I am slowly easing her into the potential tax hit, but before I could duck a coffee mug hit my face. I am lucky it was empty. Bleeding in Seattle… Now I see the apple of tax cuts.
Another post… again not politics but about polling…
Nate Silver, renowned pollster, was complaining the last 2 days about how all the polls are within the 50:50 scenarios, and lamenting that pollsters are herding. His conclusion, based on the math of course, it is not possible for polls to come so close to each other without pollsters are actually fiddling with the model to produce tie.
Then today evening, Ann Selzer came out with shocking poll which showed Harris is leading in Iowa. So far I think no one showed that. That is truly outlier. However, you are suppose to have outliers on both sides and hence the aggregation of polls.
Now, coming back to investing, herding by analyst would not be surprising to investors. Rarely, you see analysts differ from the “analysts consensus” view. Often, there is a reason, especially in the world of guidance. The lesson is when an analyst, especially one that is highly rated or tenured, goes outlier, pay attention. Contrary opinions deserve higher respect and attention. You may not act on that but understand the other view.
Now, some theories are emerging about this outlier. Ohio exports anywhere between $14-$15 B of Soy Beans to China and during last Trump trade war, that plummeted and the farmers suffered a great deal. China’s boycott also resulted in American Soy beans faced discount in the global market, i.e., non-china. There is a widespread fear of trade war in Ohio. Interestingly, no local news has captured that!
