Randomly-timed volfan84 Portfolio Update

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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The main part of the post below was originally added to the Stock Advisor Success Stories board, but I have modified it a bit so as to be of some use and relevance here on this board. It started with my random observation following today’s rise with MongoDB. Modifications to that post include adding in my portfolio allocations and including the corrected information as I recognized the way I had things sorted when I initially looked at them. I have also added in my positions that are not up >50%, with the tickers not bolded.

I think my main takeaway for myself from this reflection is that I am improving at adding to my winners/high conviction stocks, and hopefully that improvement will continue. Also, being at 15 holdings seems to be a pretty good number for me. I think I will probably target keeping 12-15 core holdings for the medium-term future of my self-directed portfolios. Also, perusing the list myself and noting how much I have harped on myself for not adding to TTD in February/March/April/early May of this year, I think it might be almost time for me to “put my money where my mouth (keyboard) is”, quit harping, and push TTD up to #3 (or 4 if PVTL crushes their earnings release on Wednesday afternoon). As most of my holdings have been discussed in-depth here on the board, I don’t have company summaries included, but if anyone has any value-added questions about the specific companies or why my allocations are roughly what they are, I could give a shot at answering. Here goes the (slightly modified) post:

This is a rather silly performance metric, and me posting about it may now jinx the whole SAAS business model (yeah right!)…but with today’s rise from MongoDB, each of my top-8 holdings is now at least a 50% gain averaged across all of my cost bases.

Here is the data for perusement/amusement/to know what to avoid if I suddenly become “Cobra bit” (inside joke from a Stock Advisor board about jinxing). I have also added in the date of my initial purchase of shares for each as a point of reference and for my own quick reference. Actually this whole posting is mostly for my own portfolio self-reflection, but I will include it here as someone may gain some benefit from it.

Rank: % of portfolio - Ticker - % gain (date of first purchase [per share cost basis]…other notes)

#1: 22.1% - NVDA - +603.55% (10/22/2014 [$17.52]…much smaller & later IRA purchase knocks this %-age down from 1,468%)

#2: 15.25% - MDB - +51.72% (8/2/2018 [$54.62]…then big add with exercise of $55 Aug 2018 call option position…insanely recent to be up this much already)

#3: 6.7% - AYX - +95.3% (1/25/2018 [$29.01]…added on 2/22/2018 [$33.08] & on 5/30/2018 [$32.99] while in Jordan, maybe en route to the Dead Sea)

#4: 6.55% - SQ - +226.7% (9/15/2017 [$27.36] via exercise of a call option position…not even long-term yet!!)

#5: 6.3% - TTD - +173.7% (8/2/2017 [$53.39]…added on 12/20/2017 [$50.15]…will eventually get over not adding more in Feb 2018)

#6: 5.85% - MELI - +51.7% (7/5/2016 [$137.66]…added on 5/15/2017 [$294.24] & 8/11/2017 [$236.19] & 10/12/2017 [$246.87])

#7: 5.7% - PSTG - +52.9% (2/16/2018 [$18.25]…basis is entirely the result of exercise of call option position)

#8: 4.0% - AAPL - +118.15% (10/15/2014 [$96.86]…added on 10/23/2014 [$105.38])

#9: 3.9% - NTNX - -2.3% (5/25/2018 [$56.99]…added on 5/29/2018 [$52.17] & 6/1/2018 [$55.62])

#10: 3.35% - ZS - +7.55% (9/4/2018 [$43.68]…added on 9/6/2018 [$41.10])

#11: 3.1% - SHOP - +248.7% (8/25/2016 [$40.76]…only 1 purchase, and that was after hesitating for a bit, after very much believing in the thesis, but before discovery of Saul’s board)

#12: 2.95% - ANET - +21.4% (12/5/2017 [$216.28]…added on 2/22/2018 [$245.18]…prior to 12/5/2017 purchases have been trimmed)

#13: 2.6% - UBNT - +74.8% (3/15/2017 [$51.95]…added on 5/15/2017 [$49.77]…trimmed in July or Aug 2018)

#14: 2.0% - PVTL - +11.5% (7/9/2018 [$24.20]…planning to boost this allocation with exercise of Sep 2018 $22.50 call options)

#15: 2.0% - IQ - -13.7% (7/6/2018 [$29.87]…added on 7/23/2018 [$32.69]…earlier purchase in IRA was sold prior to recent earnings)

-volfan84
Apologies for any braggadociousness of this post, but as an individual investor only managing my own money, I don’t expect that anyone else would toot my investing acumen horn for me.

Also, I will note the relevance of purchase dates in regards to Denny’s “Synthetic 10-bagger”/CAGR thoughts, which from my perspective seemed almost entirely congruent with Saul’s overall strategy/portfolio management execution regardless of any disagreement based on semantics. Can’t we all just get along :slight_smile:

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Also, perusing the list myself and noting how much I have harped on myself for not adding to TTD in February/March/April/early May of this year, I think it might be almost time for me to “put my money where my mouth (keyboard) is”, quit harping, and push TTD up to #3

All you dadgum front-runners, pushing the TTD price up over 4% already this morning.

:slight_smile:

Guess I may just wait until a FUD event that moves the price down that I am able to discern is actually not a big deal to find a spot to add. Maybe Amazon’s forays into advertising could provide such a future opportunity.

-volfan84
who may see TTD grow to the top 4 organically…maybe even within the next week

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One small suggestion: rather than focus so much on absolute gains, perhaps pay attention to growth rates.

To cherry pick an example: you give AAPL +118.15% since October 2014, and MELI +51.7% with first purchase in July 2016. With the absolute percentages in bold, it draws your attention. A cursory glance makes it look like AAPL was twice as good an investment as MELI. Yet 51.7% growth over 2 years is a little better than 118.15% growth over 4 years, when you look at the compound growth rate.

The hard part is relatively recent purchases (less than a year, and certainly those in the last few months). A compound growth rate, or even a linear annualized rate, could differ significantly from what the stock did (or will do) over a 1 year or longer period.

Personally, I still have a hard time coming up with an opinion about which stocks are better buys than others. That makes it hard to decide how, or even if, I should adjust my portfolio for the future. I fear that I have a tendency to anchor on past gains or losses, which interferes with my predictions for the future. I think I give large absolute gains too much weight, no matter how long it took to get those gains, in part based on fear of capital gains taxes.

-Mark

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Volfan, have you learned nothing from Saul?

Never miss getting into a stock because you are waiting to buy it a few cents cheaper. The decision is whether you want to invest in it or not. Once you decide, take a starter position, at least. Don’t wait around for a slightly better price. When it’s at $50, I can guarantee that you won’t remember or care whether you paid $10.05 or $10.30, but you’ll be kicking yourself if you didn’t get in. The issue is: Do you want to buy the stock? If the answer is yes, don’t fool around trying to buy it a bit cheaper. You are buying with a long-term perspective.

Will you be happier a year from now having bought TTD at $140 instead of $146? If so, maybe you shouldn’t buy it at all.

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One small suggestion: rather than focus so much on absolute gains, perhaps pay attention to growth rates.

That is a great point, and one that is certainly prominent in my head, but wasn’t conveyed in how I presented the data in my post (also, fits GREAT with Denny’s “synthetic 10-bagger”). I actually made a few posts earlier today on that very topic over on the NPI board (with SHOP as the reference company).
http://discussion.fool.com/poll-third-and-final-poll-for-the-day…

Volfan, have you learned nothing from Saul?

Will you be happier a year from now having bought TTD at $140 instead of $146? If so, maybe you shouldn’t buy it at all.

I have learned a ton so far from Saul, Epictetus. Since 5/11/2017 (date of my first post on this board), I have been fortunate enough to rack up around a 49% CAGR, thanks in large part to jettisoning portfolio laggards.

I am simply not looking to deploy funds towards any shares positions until after exercising some PVTL calls next Friday and after starting a ZScaler (ZS) position just last week. Late September or into October shouldn’t make too much difference in regards to TTD’s share price, as there is no intervening earnings in the interim time period…thus if $150-155 becomes the best price I could hope for by not adding prior to then, that might still turn out to be a great buy looking backwards from 2021 or 2022-ish. My reply to myself was meant to be tongue-in-cheek, jokingly suggesting that my thoughts/opinions could move markets (which I don’t think is quite the case…yet, unlike Saul’s).

-volfan84

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My reply was also meant tongue-in-cheek as I know how your results have been and of course what we all have learned on here. It was more meant towards your repeated laments of not buying TTD all the way up, and then waiting still for another price drop. If you like the long term prospects of a company, quit waiting and just go for it! Best of luck with the PVTL earnings tomorrow.

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Posted by Epictetus on 9/11/2018:
Volfan, have you learned nothing from Saul?

Will you be happier a year from now having bought TTD at $140 instead of $146? If so, maybe you shouldn’t buy it at all.

Self-flogging/Learning experience/proper investing strategy/tactic reinforcement post to follow below:

How is The Trade Desk not included yet?

I am starting to think I might try to stop being distracted by Options and the associated inevitable theta decay and focus some more attention to simply shares. In that vein, I’ll see if I can paste a TTD template below (from Greg’s finance thingee).

volfan84
long TTD

I posted the above at 11:55 on 9/24/2018 on a different Foolish board where a variety of companies are analyzed, when the price of TTD had dipped below $140.

Looks like along with that post, I should have “pounded the table” and told myself that the sub-$140 price for TTD was a screaming buy. Here a mere 3 days later, $160 has been breached (at least temporarily).

Relating back to the first post in this thread, SQ and TTD this week are fighting it out nicely since Tuesday (9/25) for the #3 spot in my portfolio.

-volfan84
long TTD & SQ

Link to “Greg’s Finance Thingee”:
https://easystocknumbers.com/

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