I would have expected that global economic downturns would affect/slow the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. Looking at the graph of the last 65 years I can’t see it.
Zooming in on the last five years also shows no impact.
DB2
Zooming in on the last five years also shows no impact.
3 Likes
I would guess ‘recessions’ are too short. Most companies would still be building up inventory for the eventual boom cycle. I’d think something as big as an actual depression would be long enough for manufacturing to slow down…
The chart is of global CO2. US recessions are not the full impact.
And there have been global recessions over the last 65 years (1975, 1982, 1991, 2009, 2020). Covid brought down global GDP almost 7% while CO2 levels increased 2.2%. Presumably they would have increased more without a recession.
DB2
So you are saying using fossil fuels is wrong?
Google gives the half life of CO2 in the atmosphere as 120 years. That implies you are measuring a very long period average. Probably not sensitive enough to say much.
That in turn implies variations measured are regional. Do you think CO2 is like clouds of water vapor in the air? Limited mixing gives localized differences.
Carbon dioxide is described as a well-mixed gas. There are local and regional differences, but I believe the changes are pretty similar.
DB2
The same can be said of humidity. And then we look up to see clouds where apparently humidity exceeds dew point at the temperature there–in some places but not others.
I don’t picture CO2 concentrations varying like that, BWDIK? At any rate, the location chosen for the monitoring is on the top of an isolated mountain in the middle of the ocean.
DB2
If you want to look at the effects on CO2 and economic disruptions, it is probably better to look at total world CO2 emissions, rather than the mixed air concentration measured at the NOAA station in Hawaii. Here is a graph from Our World in Data.
Interactive chart here, if you are interested.
I can see a downward blip in total world CO2 in 2020, and a smaller blip in 2009. But those blips are rather small on a percentage basis, and they were rather short lived.
The atmospheric CO2 concentration is just going to keep rising, despite any silly international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol or the Paris Agreement. The methods being employed to supposedly reduce emissions are woefully inadequate. Any small reductions in North America or Europe are more than made up for with increases in China and the rest of economically developing nations around the globe. I can’t say I blame them. Everyone ultimately acts in their own best interest.
_ Pete
I suspect lots of this is known. If you measure CO2 downwind from a source like a major powerplant, what do you see? At what altitude? And how much variation at right angles to the wind. So you measure upwind of the source and downwind over a wide area.
Similarly if you go to a rural area far from sources how much variation do you see. If there are clouds they should be detectable.
And similarly you should be able to get estimates on how much mixing you see vs wind speed from the source. Do you have laminar air flow or is their turbulence?
If this data has not been collected, we should claim incompetence.
1 Like