Record debt threatens growth

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/27/business/econom…

Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth

The cost of borrowing is already choking crucial public spending in many developing economies. Now it’s raising broader alarms.

By Patricia Cohen, The New York Times, Jan. 27, 2026

For decades crushing debt has spread misery in the world’s poor and lower-income nations. But the menace of unsupportable borrowing that now hangs over the global economy emanates from some of the richest countries.

Record or near-record debt in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan threaten to hamstring growth and sow financial instability around the globe.

At home, it means countries must make interest payments with money that otherwise could have paid for health care, roads, public housing, technological advances or education…

In six of the wealthy Group of 7 nations, the national debt equals or exceeds the country’s annual economic output, according to the International Monetary Fund…

The combination of low interest rates and elevated inflation particularly hurts working- and middle-income families, who see the value of their savings erode. [And conservative savers, including retirees, with low-interest paying bank accounts. – W]…[end quote]

This article is about national debt crowding out national priorities, such as improving infrastructure. The CBO predicts massive increases in debt in the future.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870

Even if the Federal Reserve cuts the fed funds rate the long-term bond yields will rise as the supply of bonds rises but demand stays the same or falls.

The yield curve is steepening.

If the Federal Reserve does QE without an emergency inflation will rise. (Fed monetary stimulus was a big driver of the post-Covid inflation along with massive fiscal stimulus.)

The article doesn’t mention the dramatic growth in margin debt which is driving the bubble in stock prices. Margin debt is now over $1.2 Trillion, roughly 4% of U.S. GDP ($30 Trillion) borrowed for pure gambling and speculation.

https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/ma…

Let’s think for a moment about the difference between paying cash and debt.

When you pay cash you own what you buy and the seller owns the value of whatever they sold you. End of story.

When a country or individual borrows, the borrower has to pay interest. If the borrower defaults the value simply disappears into thin air. The lender is stiffed. (Refer to the lenders who financed the 1999 expansion of internet infrastructure.) Also, the seller of the goods/ services is stiffed. The damage spreads from the deadbeat to the financer and the supplier.

Countries that go into debt with unsupportable promises that burden the future. Securities traders that risk the value of their investments simply evaporating as margin-financed speculators are forced to sell their good investments to meet margin calls. Or maybe this time will be different.

Wendy

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I am selling some gold and silver later today.

Enough is enough!

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From the NYTIMES article.
Record or near-record debt in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan threatens to hamstring growth and sow financial instability around the globe.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/germany-headed-biggest-deficit-since-reunification-bundesbank-says-2025-12-19/
Germany headed for biggest deficit since reunification, Bundesbank says

What I believe what is key [from NYtimes article]:
More and more countries are being squeezed by demographics and slow growth. In Europe, Britain and Japan, aging populations have driven up the government’s health care and pension costs at the same time that the number of workers who provide the necessary tax revenue has shrunk.

EU countries have generous retirement and healthcare systems and declining number of taxpayers[as does the USA].
France is an extreme case:

65-year-old retirees in France now have higher incomes than working-age adults
Due to France’s relatively young retirement age, lofty governmental spending on pensions, and high wage replacement rate, they’re now out-earning citizens with jobs as the country’s officials try and make unpopular changes.

French parliament votes to suspend Macron’s controversial pensions reform
In hitting the pause button, the legislature eased domestic political tensions but invited criticism it isn’t taking the country’s debt and spending problems seriously.

I suppose governments no longer have the option of kicking the can down the road for future representatives to deal with the problem. Though it seems France’s representative refuse to recognize that time has arrived.

It’s terrible when you make too much money and have to retreat. Definitely a high class problem!!

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For the US, also. We have leveraged ourselves into more prosperity through debt. We find taxes anathema, and one political party campaigns primarily on tax cuts. Which balloons the debt even more. A little leverage is fine. But we have allowed our debt to exceed the national GDP. I am not a macroeconomist, but that seems like a really bad idea. Especially as we have no plan (or intent?) to pay it down (which would require tax increases).

Other countries are facing debt issues for varying reasons. Many unique to their countries, but some pretty universal (e.g. age demographics). We and Japan appear to be the only two first-world nations whose debt exceeds GDP. Other nations with that problem are Greece, Singapore, Sudan, Lebanon, and some other non-first world nations.

Shhhh! Most people here think I am low-class. Don’t disabuse them.

Not just you! Today on twitter I saw some guy complaining that he can’t sell his silver (physical silver) for anything near the current quoted prices. He said that all the places he went to were offering 20+% below quoted prices. Let us know how your sales went.

[EDIT: I couldn’t find the post I saw earlier, but here’s another similar one, silver at $114, and they are offering $90.]

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Possibly going into backwardation fast. The dealers buying now are risking bankruptcy.

I sold close to 20% under spot. There abouts.

Silver may have topped out two days ago. But I’d bet the spot is up this morning. I have not looked.

The melters wont take it from the dealers. The melters are waiting 30 days to pay the dealers. Several dealers confirmed this. The dealers are scared and running low on cash.