Reporting Festivities: May 30 - June 2

Investing Strategies Abandoned Arctic Outpost #13
1

Warning: Market Flash Flooding Alert!

There is a wealth of companies reporting this week and some will go Boom - some will go Bust - and others will continue to continue-on with a barely discernible whimper.

Note 1: Rather than go into all that amateur disclaimer stuff I will simply say that I ain’t nothing but a Hound Dog and if you’re looking help catching rabbits you’re in the wrong place.

Note 2) I have truly lamentable math skills which seem to actually get worse when I am sober. Best check stuff out yourself.
…

Here is a Basic List:

A) Reporting Tuesday May 30:

  1. Ambarella - AMBA

B) Reporting Wednesday May 31:

  1. Salesforce, Inc - CRM
  2. CrowdStrike Holdings - CRWD
  3. Veeva Systems - VEEV
  4. NetApp, Inc - NTAP
  5. Okta, Inc - OKTA
  6. Pure Storage, Inc - PSTG

C) Reporting Thursday June 1:

1.) Lululemon Athletica - LULU
2.) nCino, Inc - NCNO
3.) MongoDB, Inc - MDB
4.) VMWare, Inc - VMW
5.) Zscaler, Inc - ZS
6.) SentinelOne, Inc - S
7.) Five Below, Inc - FIVE
8.) Elastic N.V. - ESTC
9.) Guidewire Software, Inc - GWRE
10 Samsara - IOT
11 C3.ai, Inc - AI
12 Broadcom Inc - AVGO

D) Reporting Friday June 2

  1. Asana, Inc - ASAN
  2. PagerDuty, Inc - PD

Note: I think these are accurate reporting dates but I could have it all mucked up. Better check if you are interested.

What follows are brief memory joggers of the ones I am most interested in:

  1. Ambarella Inc - AMBA: Reports May 30 After the Close

AMBA has that sexy AI stuff attached to its resume: something or other about being an “edge” AI semiconductor
thingy connected somehow with the EV market. Dunno really - but the stock popped over 8% per share in celebration with the NVDA party. So…theres that.

Current Price: $77.74
About 22% Below its High
Market Cap: $3.1B
5 Day Momentum: +7.7%
EV/Sales (fwd): 9.96

The company last reported way back on Feb 28 with negative YOY Revenue Growth. You can read all about it here:

Or you can save yourself some time by glancing at the post report headline:

Here is a positive Scouting Report:

…

  1. Salesforce - CRM: Reports May 31 After the Close

Lots of people suggesting/predicting that subsequent to its report CRM investors will get Happy Feet. Hope so - CRM is most certainly a semi Marker Influencer (MI).

Current Price: $215.44
Sitting Just Below its High
Market Cap: $211B
5 Day Momentum: +2.47%
EV/Sales (fwd): 6,16

Last Report: Beats on EPS and Revenue with overall Revenue Growth of over 14% YOY. Here is the Press Release and the post report Headline:

…

  1. CrowdStrike - CRWD: Reports May 31 After the Close

CRWD has been a rocket ship over the last month gaining +24.8% and surprising some tech investors who had left it for dead; which, It’s evidently not.

Current Price: $154.12
About 25% Below Its High
Market Cap: $36.7B
5 Day Momentum: +6.27%
EV/Sales (fwd): 11.56

The company last reported FQ4 back In March with +47.88% Revenue Growth accompanied by Record Net New ARR and Record Cash Flow. You can review the Press Release and post market Headline here:

…

  1. MongoDB, Inc - MDB: Reports June 1 After the Close

On April 25th MDB was meandering along at about $212 - and then, subsequent to MSFT’s ER decided it was a contender and after a brief stop to tie its shoe - has sprinted into its very own ER finish line. Company stock now sits at $283 + with a magnificent - and highly notable - short term gain of about 33% or so. The question now is if they are at the top of their game - peaking, so to say, or if there is more in the tank. Long term - Yes: Short Term - Who Knows?

Current Price: $283.66
About 27% Below its High
Market Cap: $20B
5 Day Momentum: +3.32%
EV/Sales (fwd): 12.84

The company last reported back in early March for FQ4 which produced Revenue Growth of +35.58%. Here is the Press Release and the after report Headline:

Special Note: Cestrian Capital Research was right - doncha know!
…

  1. Zscaler, Inc - ZS: Reports June 1 After the Close

ZS bottomed around May 2 at about $87 a share, Since then it has tacked on $43.62 per share for a short term gain of just over 50%.

Current Price: $130.62
About 33% Below its High
Market Cap: $19B
5 Day Momentum: +2.81%
EV/Sales (fwd): 11.56

The company reported FQ4 earnings on March 7 with solid Revenue Growth of +51.66% and a fantastic surge in Non-GAAP net income of $57.6M compared to $19.2M on a YOY basis. Here is the Press Release and post report Headline:

Note: Mr Wiggins article hasn’t aged all that well.
…

  1. SentinelOne - S: Reports June 1 After the Close

This is one report in particular that I am waiting for with great and eager anticipation: seems like its time for Sentinel to put up or shut up - walk the walk - cash flow talks and BS walks! Or something very like that in my exceptionally humble opinion. They either belong with the. Big Boys like CRWD and ZS - or they don’t. Course they could be something in between - a tweener.

Current Price: $20.65
About 31% Below its High
Market Cap: $6B
5 Day Momentum: +8.88%
EV/Sales (fwd): 8.50

On their last ER the company reported +92.1% Revenue Growth - a nice 3 Cent Beat on Non-GAAP EPS with ARR increasing 88% YOY. Not to shabby! S bottomed at about
$15.52 per share in early May: since then it’s been up and to the right with a short term gain of about 33%.

Here is its last ER Press Release:

Here is a sample of the latest sentiment:

…

  1. Samsara - IOT: Reports June 1 After the Close

Nothing much to say here - have more of IOT than I think I should and might lighten up a bit before the report. Might not though - in for a penny in for a pound I suppose. Maybe. Dunno.

https://www.samsara.com/

Current Price: $19.06
About 15.5% Below its High.
Market Cap: $10.1B
5 Day Momentum: -6% (Not especially a strong vote of confidence in the upcoming report)
EV/Sales (fwd): 11.10

The company has really nice results after it reported FQ4 2023 back in early March. Revenue Growth came in at +48.3% and customer growth up 53% YOY. Press Release and post report Headline here:

All the Best,
BDH Investing

9 Likes
2

AMBA Reports:

Here is what was expected:

Here is what they delivered:

Everything went backward.

Headline should be this:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi-96DikJ7_AhUqlWoFHQCpC5wQwqsBegQIDxAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dv4jGSvxCRp4&usg=AOvVaw3pYDrf-SabgDcurOAtbpVA

Fan Reaction: Stock is off about -13.4% during AHs trading.
…

3 Likes
3

Champ,

Did they forget to say AI? Must be :grinning:

I am sure the CEO will issue a late statement to say how they are playing a very important role in implementing AI

Charlie

3 Likes
4

Hi Charlie:

That made me laugh - an ain’t it the truth…ain’t it the truth.

All the Best,

5

Ok so with a few ticks on the clock we are waiting for some reports - the primary two of which; in my mostly humble opinion are CRWD and CRM. Here is what analysts are expecting for each.

For CRWD:

For CRM:

Others of interest noted originally:

For VEEV

For NTAP:

For OKTA:

For PSTG:

All the Best,
BDH Investing

2 Likes
6

CRWD Reports:

  • Revenue: Total revenue was $692.6 million, a 42% increase, compared to $487.8 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023. Subscription revenue was $651.2 million, a 42% increase, compared to $459.8 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

  • Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased 42% year-over-year and grew to $2.73 billion as of April 30, 2023, of which $174.2 million was net new ARR added in the quarter.

  • Non-GAAP subscription gross margin was 80%, compared to 79% in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

  • Non-GAAP income from operations was $115.9 million, compared to $83.0 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

  • Cash Flow: Net cash generated from operations was $300.9 million, compared to $215.0 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023. Free cash flow was $227.4 million, compared to $157.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

Press Release Here:

Guidance: Q2 Outlook: Total revenue $717.2 - $727.4 million vs. consensus of $718.59M, Non-GAAP income from operations $116.4 - $123.8 million, Non-GAAP EPS $0.54 - $0.57 vs. consensus of $0.54.

Note: The guidance provided was higher than consensus and represents growth of 37.3% % on the high side - with a whimsical and purely grab bag Beat of 7.5K added in for fun.

Fan Reaction:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjd1Oeys6D_AhUfnWoFHZxoAo0QwqsBegQIDRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D84zY33QZO5o&usg=AOvVaw2874Myca6NkJHiKvGMREQZ

Stock is selling off in After Hours by just over 11%. And here I was thinking it was just a dandy report - sigh! Even giants are felled by the law of large numbers - or something like that.
…

All the Best,
BDH Investing

4 Likes
7

CRM Reports:

  • First Quarter Revenue of $8.25 Billion, up 11% Year-Over-Year (“Y/Y”), up 13% Constant Currency (“CC”)

  • Subscription and support revenues were $7.64 billion, an increase of 11% Y/Y. Professional services and other revenues were $0.61 billion, an increase of 9% Y/Y.

  • First quarter non-GAAP operating margin was 27.6%. Restructuring impacted first quarter GAAP operating margin by (860) bps.

  • Earnings per Share: First quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.20, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.69. Losses on the Company’s strategic investments negatively impacted GAAP diluted earnings per share by $(0.11) based on a U.S. tax rate of 25% and non-GAAP diluted EPS by $(0.11) based on a non-GAAP tax rate of 23.5%.

  • Restructuring impacted first quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share by (72) cents.

  • Cash Flow: Cash generated from operations for the first quarter was $4.49 billion, an increase of 22% Y/Y. Free cash flow was $4.25 billion, an increase of 21% Y/Y.

  • Remaining performance obligation ended the first quarter at $46.7 billion, an increase of 11% Y/Y. Current remaining performance obligation ended at $24.1 billion, an increase of 12% Y/Y, and 12% CC.

  • Returned $2.1 Billion in First Quarter to Stockholders in the Form of Share Repurchases

  • Second Quarter FY24 Revenue Guidance of $8.51 Billion to $8.53 Billion vs. consensus of $8.49B, up ~10% Y/Y; Non-GAAP Earnings per Share $1.89 - $1.90 vs. consensus of $1.71.

Press Release Here:

Fan Reaction: A sort of an initial formal and obligatory golf clap followed by partisans exiting quietly: The stock was up $4.50 per share during the day and is down currently $4.71 After Hours. Seems a little bit of the German Mox Nix reaction in an investing sort of way.
…

All the Best,
BDH Investing

3 Likes
8

Big Stuff tomorrow - at least for my portfolio:

ZS and S bring offerings to the table tomorrow with an additional guest cameo appearance by MongoDB which I am greatly lusting over. Hope the damn thing tanks big time. Anyway, Since it appears that the market may be shedding a little weight since its fantastic May run - I am prepared for some carnage. We’ll see - anyway here is what the market expects for tomorrow:

  1. ZS reports After the Close:

Since ZS already tipped off the market to decent enough results that have driven a nice run - its all about the Guidance tomorrow. Interestingly enough, Zscaler tanked to the tune of -3.68% this evening in sympathy with the Crowd sell-off. And then…I did a really stupid thing: I added during the After Hours. Why? I dunno…maybe I just haven’t done anything really dumb in a few days and needed to hit my dumb quota. Sigh!

  1. Sentinel Reports After the Close:

The company also joined the CRWD pity party to the tune of losing -4.58 percent during extended trading.

  1. MongoDB Reports After the Close

I had MDB earlier in the month - it went on a really nice run - I sold out of MDB - then just to spite me, it decided to keep on running. Here is what the market wants:

So - if the market is still feeling puny tomorrow it could get bad really quick with some bad reports. We’ll see.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

2 Likes
9

Champ,

If you are dumb, then you are the most smartest, cleverest, intelligentest (is that even a word) dumb person I have seen!

You make it sound that your success are a thing of good fortune…far from that…There is a clear pattern in your investing strategy, although I still don’t know how you manage to wait and hit the almost best possible low prices for the buys…Sells are not an issue as you still end up selling at a profit…So yea, you do okay :rofl: :grinning:

2 Likes
10

Somehow I managed to leave IOT out of todays reporting festivities. Most likely because I thought they were reporting tomorrow. No blood no foul - so here is stuff on Samsara:

IOT - Reports After the Close.

Market Cap: $10.1B
Valuation: EV/Sales (fwd) 11.22
5 Day Momentum: Flat

Here is what is expected:

Their last report featured Y/Y Revenue Growth of +48.37% accompanied by a strong Revenue Beat of +8.7%.

3 Likes
11

Ok - behind so have to catch up today.

MDB Reported Yesterday:

  • Revenue of $368.28M (+29.0% Y/Y) beats by $21.24M.

  • Huge Beat on Non-GAAP EPS by 37 Cents

  • Non-GAAP gross profit was $279.9 million, representing a 76% non-GAAP gross margin, compared to a non-GAAP gross margin of 75% in the year-ago period.

  • Non-GAAP income from operations was $43.7 million, compared to a non-GAAP income from operations of $17.5 million in the year-ago period.

  • Non-GAAP net income was $45.3 million, or $0.56 per share, based on 81.5 million diluted weighted-average shares outstanding. This compares to a non-GAAP net income of $15.2 million, or $0.20 per share, in the year-ago period.

Press Release Here:

CC Comments:

"During the first quarter, we grew our customer base by approximately 2,300 customers sequentially, bringing our total customer count to over 43,100, which is up from over 35,200 in the year-ago period.

The growth in our total customer count is being driven primarily by Atlas, which had over 41,600 customers at the end of the quarter compared to over 33,700 in the year-ago period.

We had another quarter with our net expansion – ARR expansion rate above 120%. We ended the quarter with 1,761 customers with at least $100,000 in ARR and annualized MRR, which is up from 1,379 in the year-ago period."

Guidance:

" I’d now like to turn to our outlook for the second quarter and full fiscal year 2024. For the second quarter, we expect revenue to be in the range of $388 million to $392 million. We expect non-GAAP income from operations to be in the range of $36 million to $39 million and non-GAAP net income per share to be in the range of $0.43 to $0.46 based on 82.5 million estimated diluted weighted average shares outstanding."

CC Transcript Here:

Fan Reaction: Share holders celebrating like the student body of DUKE after beating North Carolina for the National Championship. Stock is up over $85 per share.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

2 Likes
12

Sentinel Reported Yesterday:

Viewer Warning: Some items in this ER report may create extreme nausea, feelings of confounding confusion, as well as anxious anxiety along with stock ownership claustrophoba.

  • Revenue grew more than 70% Y/Y to $133.4M, but missed expectations by $3.21M.

  • The company posted Q1 2024 adj. EPS of -$0.15, which beat estimates by 2 cents.

  • The company’s ARR increased 75% Y/Y to $563.6M. However, the adjustment to its methodology and correction of historical inaccuracies resulted in a one-time ARR reduction of $27M or about 5% of ARR.

  • Total customer count grew approximately 43% to over 10,680 customers as of April 30, 2023. Customers with ARR over $100,000 grew 61% to 917 as of April 30, 2023.

  • S cut its FY 2024 revenue guidance to a range of $590M to $600M from $631M to $640M previously. The consensus estimate is $637.63M.

Press Release Here:

SentinelOne Announces First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results | Seeking Alpha

CC Notes:
"With that said, our Q1 revenue and ARR growth fell short of our internal expectations. Let me address the two key factors head on that impacted our Q1 results. First, macroeconomic conditions are further impacting both deal sizes and sales cycles. Incrementally, budgetary scrutiny is leading to deal size adjustments for new customers and renewal contracts.

We’re seeing customers evaluate usage and rightsize on renewals. Some enterprises are taking a wait-and-see approach by deferring purchase decisions. While not entirely new, the impact from these conditions was more pronounced this quarter. Second, operating in this environment raises the bar for execution. We were disappointed with some late-stage contract execution challenges on large deals that caused a few deals to slip to next quarter."

“First, some context. In the past few years, we had seen steadily increasing usage and consumption patterns by our large customers, which we accounted for real-time and quarterly ARR. However, as the first quarter progressed, we experienced a notable decline in usage, which continued in May. In light of the current macro environment, we expect these lower usage and consumption trends to persist.”

CC Transcript here:

Fan Reaction: Fleeing the Scene in Droves.

After Report Headline:

Note: S was a moderately large STARTER position for my portfolio with an average cost basis of $15.78. I sold completely out during After Hours for an average price of $14.50 and just took the loss.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

8 Likes
13

Zscaler Reports (Yesterday):

  • Revenue grows 46% year-over-year to $418.8 million

  • EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.05

  • Calculated billings grows 40% year-over-year to $482.3 million

  • Deferred revenue grows 44% year-over-year to $1,175.4 million

  • Non-GAAP net income of $74.6 million compared to non-GAAP net income of $24.7 million on a year-over-year basis

  • Cash flow: Cash provided by operations was $108.5 million, or 26% of revenue, compared to $77.2 million, or 27% of revenue, in the third quarter of fiscal 2022. Free cash flow was $73.9 million, or 18% of revenue, compared to $43.7 million, or 15% of revenue, in the third quarter of fiscal 2022.

Press Release Here:

CC Commentary:

“Our new business grew significantly across various industry verticals and we had approximately half of our revenue come from outside the U.S.”

“We are providing increased guidance for the full year, which we believe balances our business optimism and macro-economic uncertainties. A few quarters ago, we noted that customers were increasingly scrutinizing their projects and budgets, due to macro conditions. We are seeing this elevated level of scrutiny continue in Q3.”

“We now have, 400 customers with greater than $1 million in ARR, including over 35 customers, exceeding $5 million in ARR. In Q3, our new logo business grew approximately 20% year-over-year. Our proven experience at-scale, makes us a partner of choice for customers pursuing their Zero Trust security journey.”

“Our remaining performance obligations or RPO grew 36% from a year-ago to $3.023 billion, the current RPO is approximately 50% of the total RPO. Our dollar-based net retention rate was once again above 125%, while good for our business, our increased success selling bigger bundles, selling multiple pillars from the start and faster upsells within a year, can reduce our dollar-based net retention rate in the future. This is not a metric we try to optimize quarter-to-quarter, which could lead to variability on a quarterly basis.”

CC Transcript Here:

Fan Reaction: ZS stock is up around 8% today.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

5 Likes
14

Samsara - IOT Reports (Actually Yesterday):

  • Q1 revenue of $204.3 million, representing 43% year-over-year growth

  • Rock Solid Revenue Beat by a Very Aggressive +6.42%

  • In Q1, we added a record 138 large customers

  • 1,375 customers with ARR over $100,000, up 53% year-over-year

“In this current environment, our customers are prioritizing investments in solutions that help them control costs and deliver rapid ROI by running safer, smarter, and more efficient operations. I continue to be inspired by the strength and resilience of our customer base, and we are proud to empower the people who power the world.”

  • Guidance for Q2 calls for Revenue of $206 - 208M representing growth of +34 to35% Y/Y.
    However - if you chunk in their average Revenue Beat over the last 4 QTRS of about 13K the growth jumps to about +44%

Press Release Here:

CC Commentary:

“We ended Q1 with ARR of over $850 million, growing more than 40% year-over-year. We also achieved Rule of 40 for the third consecutive quarter. Samsara’s vision is to empower the industries that power our world, and we continue to see strong adoption of digital transformation for physical operations. Large customer wins, in particular, are fueling our momentum.”

"During the quarter, I was on the road with our executive leadership team in the U.S. and Europe, meeting with some of our largest customers. Our technology is driving meaningful business impact for them, and they are asking us to double down on a few things. First, AI-based safety technologies to reduce risk across operations; second, digital workflows to increase efficiency for frontline workers; and last, more platform and data integrations to drive higher asset utilization in the field.

We’re hearing this across the board, not just in a single industry. In this current environment, our customers are prioritizing investments in solutions that help control costs and deliver rapid ROI by running smarter, safer and more efficient operations."

“…we have a subscription business model that produces highly predictable revenue, and we price subscriptions based on the number of physical assets versus headcount-based pricing, resulting in a lower risk of ACV contraction if our customers hiring slows or contracts. Second, our customers deploy Samsara to generate hard ROI savings and many experienced a quick investment payback period measured in months. And third, we primarily sell into the operations budget, which is generally large and nondiscretionary for our customers.”

“Our investments in serving the largest physical operations companies in the world continue to pay off. $100,000-plus ARR customers represent our fastest-growing cohort and make up 49% of total ARR, up from just 45% 1 year ago. Second, this was a strong customer expansion quarter. 60% of Q1 net new ACV came from expansions to existing customers, our highest quarterly mix ever and up from 51% in Q1 last year. 8 of our top 10 net new ACV deals in Q1 were customer expansions including a large $1 million-plus expansion to a leading national distributor of aftermarket automotive replacement parts.”

“…while our core business drove most of our Q1 performance, we executed well across several new frontiers. For example, 15% of Q1 net new ACV came from non-vehicle applications, primarily from strength in equipment monitoring, which ended the quarter at approximately $100 million of ARR. Additionally, a record 17% of Q1 net new ACV came from non-U.S. customers, including a top 10 expansion for one of Canada’s largest grocery retailers. And lastly, 83% of Q1 net new ACV came from non-transportation customers with particular strength in utilities, energy, field services, construction and public sector.”

CC Transcript Here:

Fan Reaction: Stock is up just over 27% today.

I had my doubts about these guys but they are making a believer out of me.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

6 Likes