retired mechanical investing

Of all the mechanical screens here in recent years, what are a couple that are good mechanical screens or ideas?

Of all the mechanical screens here in recent years, what are a couple that are good mechanical screens or ideas?

Go read some of mungofitch’s screens he has discussed. A lot of the old-time MI screens crapped out a few years ago.

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The answer to any question often depends more on who is asked than what the question was : )

For a classic MI screen, my suggestion is unsurprisingly one of my screens.
https://discussion.fool.com/a-spy-alternative-screen-34516863.as…
"This is a retirement portfolio kind of screen: LargeCapCash.
The goal is a screen which is as safe as the S&P 500 but with the hope of somewhat higher returns over the long run.
This specific screen has low turnover, lower concentration risk than the S&P with largest position at 2.5% of portfolio,
probably significantly lower company specific risk because of requirement of very strong balance sheet and profitability.
And a very strong large cap bias."

A 40-stock portfolio from that thread has beat the S&P by a nice amount in the 1.84 years since the post.
That depends which particular variant in the thread you consider–it was a long discussion.
The variations requiring a dividend seem to do a hair better, in my research.
e.g, a 39 stock “dozens” portfolio, 13 stocks each month, each pick held 3 months, has beat SPY by 9.0%/year since the post.
Not proof of anything, but it has definitely failed to blow up so far.

That particular test variant goes like this:
VL universe
Require any valid timeliness rank
Require any positive dividend
“Return on Shareholders’ Equity” top 32% (this is the figure updated annually, not quarterly)
[cash - long term debt] top 40 (gives a very strong large cap bias)
Final sort within those 40 by [cash - long term debt] / market cap

What do you end up with?
A portfolio with no position weight over 2.6% of your portfolio, much lower company specific risk than the S&P 500
Every pick very large cap. As of a month ago average market cap $141bn, smallest $1.1bn.
Every pick has very high ROE
Every company has a high cash balance
They all pay dividends. As of a month ago the picks had an average yield of 1.87%.

33.2 year backtest advantage over SPY of 4.9%/year after trading costs.
It was largely market tracking during the 1989-1999 bull market.
Since Jan 2000 the backtest beats SPY by 6.9%/year.

I’m sure there are lots of better screens, but it’s a possible start for your search.
It depends what you have as investment goals.

Jim

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Of all the mechanical screens here in recent years, what are a couple that are good mechanical screens or ideas?

Two of the better SIPro screens are based on changes in the amount of stock. Shrinkage looks for companies that have been buying back a lot of their stock and then sorts by high ROE. Jamie’s backtester shows that, since discovery in 2003, even for an annual hold the CAGR is around 13%, couple of points better than the S&P. For the three-year period 2018-2020 a monthly Shrinkage approach had a CAGR of 23%.
https://discussion.fool.com/3-year-sip-backtests-to-2020-novembe…

In addition, FWIW, the top short screen was Dilution.

DB2

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For a classic MI screen, my suggestion is unsurprisingly one of my screens.
https://discussion.fool.com/a-spy-alternative-screen-34516863.as…
"This is a retirement portfolio kind of screen: LargeCapCash.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jim,
What happens to this screen if you add momentum, like 6 month gain, or % of 52 week high?

A lot of the old-time MI screens crapped out a few years ago.

Unfortunately this seems to be true.

I just took a look at the performance of all of the standard screens in lohill’s GTR helper. Picked the top 10 screens based on their perpetual SAWR (safe annual withdrawal rate). Then compared their last 10 years performance compared to the SP500.

Screen Name        CAGR  TR         Log2TR  SAWRÍ20)  GSD(20)  DIGSDÍ20  LDD   LDDD3  MDD    Ul(20)  Sharpe(20)  Beta(20)  Tl(20  AT    Start Date  Years  CAGR10y  SAWR10y
WK_Voom            31.0  1,595,608    13.5      12.7     36.7      39.2  19.3   12.2  -55.7    15.1        0.93       0.9   31.2   8.6    19870302  35.08     21.9     13.4
WK_Voom_Liquidity  32.1  2,004,279    14.0      12.4     35.5      38.0  18.6   11.9  -55.5    15.2        0.97       0.9   32.6   8.4    19870302  35.08     19.4     12.3
S&P500             10.6      3,343     5.1       5.5     17.6      20.7  11.8   10.7  -54.8    13.8        0.53       1.0    8.5   0.0    19870302  35.08     14.4     12.3
Up5X3              27.6     46,022     8.5      12.9     33.7      38.2  19.2   13.7  -62.9    15.1        0.94       1.0   27.2  12.2    19970902  24.58     15.0     10.2
RS-100             31.9  2,421,781    13.9      12.4     35.5      38.3  18.8   10.9  -55.7    14.9        0.96       0.9   33.6  11.1    19870302  35.08     13.3      8.8
LowPS+             34.5  4,642,333    14.8      12.1     43.5      47.0  22.8   14.6  -71.3    18.0        0.90       1.1   31.1  11.8    19870302  35.08     13.8      8.5
YEY_SIPro          29.2    811,773    12.9      11.2     31.6      35.6  17.7   12.0  -61.1    13.6        0.98       0.9   29.2   5.9    19870302  35.08     13.3      8.1
Low_Mult           27.1    671,405    12.0      10.6     33.7      35.7  18.0   11.1  -51.8    14.9        0.87       0.8   30.4   9.5    19870302  35.08     12.8      8.0
VG-Horse           31.9    108,780     9.7      12.4     41.3      42.1  20.7   13.3  -59.5    18.1        0.90       0.9   35.5   9.9    19970902  24.58     12.5      7.7
Rabbitt            29.2     68,719     9.0      11.4     37.3      40.4  20.1   13.8  -67.6    17.5        0.91       0.9   30.7  11.2    19970902  24.58      8.0      4.8
BI                 24.4     23,831     7.6      10.3     31.6      34.1  17.4   12.3  -53.3    14.8        0.87       0.8   31.5  10.7    19970902  24.58      2.7      1.7

Assuming a 0.35% friction on trades only 2 of the 10 screens outperformed the SP500 based on SAWR.

Following Mungo’s advice to use his screen doesn’t seem to be a bad idea. I’ve been using it with only SIP data and a slight mod to filter out very high or low beta stocks that has outperformed the S&P for the last couple of years.

RAM

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qqq has beaten the s&p by 30% over the last 5 years

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qqq has beaten the s&p by 30% over the last 5 years

The question is, do you extrapolate that or expect mean reversion?

My personal opinions on that—
They’re both overvalued compared to any prior norms, but SPY more so.
And the value of the Nasdaq 100 companies rises, on average, very much more rapidly than those in the S&P 500.
So on a relative basis, over a decently long time frame, I would extrapolate the result to be continued outperformance of the Nasdaq side.
At a moderate rate.

However I MUCH prefer QQQE over QQQ. Much more of a sure thing, vastly lower company specific risk.
QQQ is very oddly weighted (not really cap weight), with huge concentration in just a few names.
If you know those few giant names and want to own them and have an opinion about their valuations and prospects, buy them individually.
If you don’t have a solid opinion on them, you don’t want a portfolio concentrated in them.
Either way, don’t buy QQQ.

Jim

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…buy QQQE…

never even occurred to me there was an equal weight ETF on the Naz 100. Thanks for the directional, Mungo - implementing tomorrow.

Do you happen to know any free resources to generate the “LargeCapCash” screen? (or an variation of it)

Thank you

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Do you happen to know any free resources to generate the “LargeCapCash” screen? (or an variation of it)

You can do it yourself with a little bit of work. Well, using Russell 1000 instead of VL. My local libraries cancelled their VL subscriptions, so I can’t use VL anymore.

Download the R1000 data from barcharts (free login). Doesn’t have cash & debt, though. You have to grab that data from other sites, like ycharts. You probably have to scrape the data, which is a PITA.

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I should probably add, “Learn to code.” LOL
I had to do it all in scripts (bash). I doubt there is another way if you can’t do it all with VL.

One option is to subscribe to Portfolio123 Screener which also gets you 5 years of backtesting for $300/yr.

Second option is to subscribe to a AAII Stock Investor Pro for $300/yr. With that you can either run the screen in GTR1 which allows you to find out the current picks if you have the MD5 has from your SIP subscription download. Or you can run the screen using the less sophisticated built in SIP screener.

I’ve tried both and either works, the P123 is the better screener but SIP enables longer backtests using GTR1. P123 has 20 year backtests but that costs $1K/year min (they also have the lowest price for Compustat data for only an additional $12,000/year for any big time rollers here)

I have backtested a simplified version using only SIPro data and it does almost but defiantly not as well as the GTR1 version.
SP = 500 OR ci.SP = 400)
IND_2_DIG <> 7
IND_2_DIG <> 12
COUNTRY = ‘United States’
CASH_Q1 > 0
Equity_Q1 > 0
NETINC_12M >0
fcfps_12M > 0
RROE_12m > 85
SORT BY ((CASH_Q1 - LTDEBT_Q1)/MKTCAP) Desc

RAM

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I just took a look at the performance of all of the standard screens in lohill’s GTR helper. Picked the top 10 screens based on their perpetual SAWR (safe annual withdrawal rate). Then compared their last 10 years performance compared to the SP500.

RAM

I don’t totally follow your logic. If they are compounding that much more than the s&p, they sound pretty good.

RAM; I don’t totally follow your logic. If they are compounding that much more than the s&p, they sound pretty good.

Perhaps my data formatting which had too much superfluous information with the results off the page.
Focus on the right two columns. . .the results for the last 10 years.

Screen Name        CAGR  SAWR  Start_Date  Years  CAGR10y  SAWR10y
WK_Voom              31  12.7    19870302  35.08     21.9     13.4
WK_Voom_Liquidity  32.1  12.4    19870302  35.08     19.4     12.3
**S&P500             10.6   5.5    19870302  35.08     14.4     12.3**
Up5X3              27.6  12.9    19970902  24.58     15.0     10.2
RS-100             31.9  12.4    19870302  35.08     13.3      8.8
LowPS+             34.5  12.1    19870302  35.08     13.8      8.5
YEY_SIPro          29.2  11.2    19870302  35.08     13.3      8.1
Low_Mult           27.1  10.6    19870302  35.08     12.8      8.0
VG-Horse           31.9  12.4    19970902  24.58     12.5      7.7
Rabbitt            29.2  11.4    19970902  24.58      8.0      4.8
BI                 24.4  10.3    19970902  24.58      2.7      1.7

The top 10 screens over the last 24 to 35 years which includes the last 10 poorly performing years:
Had a median CAGR of 30.1% compared to the SP500’s 10.6% over the same period.
Had a median SAWR of 12.5% compared to the SP500’s 5.5% over the same period.
But over the last 10 years.
Had a median CAGR of 13.3% compared to the SP500’s 14.4% and only 3 of 10 better CAGR.
Had a median SAWR of 8.3% compared to the SP500’s 12.3% and only 2 of 10 better SAWR.

My limited logic says the screens were more than likely a formula to lose money.

RAM . . . Still don’t know how I’m a little ahead of the game.

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I created a Portfolio123 version:

Universe(Prussell1000)
DivPaidA > 0
FOrderOLD(“$Timeliness”,#All,#DESC,#Previous,TRUE)<=600
FOrderOLD(“ROE%A”,#All,#DESC,#Previous,TRUE)<=80
OPMgn%TTM > 25
FOrderOLD(“CashA - DbtLTA”,#All,#DESC,#Previous,TRUE)<=40
FOrderOLD(“((CashA - DbtLTA) / MktCap)”,#All,#DESC,#Previous,TRUE)<=13

where the custom formula $Timeliness: BetaTotalReturn26W(CurFYEPSMean/EPSInclXorA)

I added the Operating Margin > 25% because it eliminated all of the low margin businesses (IT, Services, etc.) and pumped up the annual return by several percent. My current P123 subscription only allows 5 years of backtesting. This screen has an Alpha over the S&P500 of 11.22% over the past five years with 0.5% slippage on each trade and 1 year holds. 13 week holds had a 7.72% Alpha over the same period. I could not figure out how to do the alternating 13 week holds. If anyone has a longer P123 backtest subscription I would be curious to see how it fares.

Taz

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I got it now. I think I was looking at the last 24 - 35 years.

Taz2: I added the Operating Margin > 25% because it eliminated all of the low margin businesses
(IT, Services, etc.) and pumped up the annual return by several percent.

I tried using the SIP field Operating margin12m > 12% in a more elaborate GTR1 version which I like because it has the advantage of using daily start dates which are especially valuable in backtests over shorter time periods. Was only able to go back to 20000403 but:

For the last 22 years the Operating margin reduced CAGR by 5% and SAWR by 5.5%.
For the last 5 years the operating margin requirement reduce both CAGR and SAWR by 3.5%.

For a short backtest of only 5 years the daily start test results of CAGR varied by over an 8% range from min to max depending on the start day. Likewise, the SAWR varied 6.7% from min to max. The daily start variation of CAGR min to max was only 2.8% and less than 1.9% for the SAWR.

The more one uses Robbie’s GTR1 backtester the more you can appreciate the sophistication. Not easy to learn but worth the effort.

RAM

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My local libraries cancelled their VL subscriptions, so I can’t use VL anymore.

You could get a subscription to the Value Line service.
Just sayin’.

Jim

7 Likes

You could get a subscription to the Value Line service.
Just sayin’.

$598 for “The Value Line Investment Survey® - Smart Investor” Is that the one? VL web site is very unclear on the details. I assume that’s per year? Again, VL does not say.

For using it only one or two times a year, either a 1 1/2 hour drive to the physical library or paying $45 for an out-of-district library card (which would give me online access) is more like it.

'course, if we get into a bear market like many are predicting, won’t be holding stocks for a year or 18 months.