Portfolio Update 12/31/20
It’s been a month since I posted my November portfolio update found here;
I have found doing these updates is helping me keep better records of my investing thought processes over time. Much like keeping a journal in life when you re-read in the future it helps you remember what your thoughts were at the time of writing. Hopefully others find this helpful as well.
Current Portfolio as of 12/31/20 Change since 11/28/20 +4.4% YTD +193.9% YTD S&P 500 +16.3% Nasdaq +43.6% Dow +7.3% Stock % Portfolio % Portfolio % Change Market % Change Current Previous Portfolio Cap Market Cap CRWD 13.6 15.9 -14.5 47.3B 44.8 TDOC 12.5 12.1 3.3 29.1B 7.0 DOCU 11.5 9.6 19.8 41.3B -1.0 DDOG 11.0 13.4 -17.9 30.3B 3.4 ZM 8.6 17.8 -51.7 98.7B -21.9 TCNNF 6.0 9.1 -34.1 4.7B 14.6 EXPI 4.1 7.3 -43.8 4.4B 22.2 GDRX 0.4 0 42.7B LMND 0.2 0 7.5B CASH 32.2 14.6
I changed the format above. I use to not include the % change in stock allocation or % change in Market Cap. This made it difficult to see what change in allocation was due to buying/selling or just appreciation/depreciation due to price. By changing to new format it will help to determine if rising/falling percentages are price induced or because of reallocation to cash or other stocks.
New positions since last portfolio update: LMND, GRDX
Exited positions since last update: None
Trades between 11/28-12/31 Bought: ZM 11/30 486.89; 457.45 CRWD 12/01 146.80 DOCU 12/01 214.75 DOCU 12/03 223.51 ZM 12/01 412.57 LMND 12/09 91.70 GRDX 12/30 42.41 Sold: ZM 12/01 414.49 EXPI 12/01 53.25 CRWD 12/07 166.82 ZM 12/08 411.75 DDOG 12/09 100.25 DOCU 12/17 246.19 CRWD 12/15 176.00 TCNNF 12/17 32.75; 32.67 EXPI 12/17 74.80; 75.15; 76.35 CRWD 12/17 184.43 DDOG 12/17 107.76 CRWD 12/18 204.25
Results year to date at end of month
Thoughts on trades and companies for the month.
I bought a trading position (extra) ZM right before earnings believing it was going to pop upward, it did not, so I sold a few days later at a loss. I did the same thing with CRWD and DOCU and they both did pop and I sold my trading position a few weeks later with a nice gain. This was with smaller trading positions, not my core holdings which I still hold in all of the stocks.
I have gone to over 30% cash. I often hold cash in my portfolio to help keep me stay comfortable with being invested in market during times when I am feeling uneasy. Things right now in the market seem heated up to me and I am nervous about the economy. Stimulus spending has propped up the economy (IMO) and it cannot go on forever. To put it into perspective with this years gains I have twice as much money invested in stocks as I did in the beginning of 2020. Additionally I have the same amount in cash currently that I had at the start of last year invested in stocks. I added some money in middle of 2020.
Here is the percentage of cash I held when I did my end of month reports during this year.
This averages out to 18.2% over all months. 193.9% (YTD return) of 18.2% is 35.2%. One could argue that I left 17% more gains off table by holding cash this year. Of course that cash was deployed at various times to capture what I felt were good opportunities to trade around core stock positions. More often than not capturing additional short/long term gains. I have include at bottom what my portfolio would have returned if I just would have left original stock holdings and their allocations from beginning of 2020 (spoiler -18.9% less return).
I added two very small positions this month; LMND and GDRX. GDRX was just discussed on the board. That discussion interested me enough to buy small position so that I will start to dig into the company deeper and follow them more closely. LMND is an insurance company utilizing AI to disrupt a traditional market. It has spiked up considerable after I bought small starter position (+33.5% in 3 weeks). Again this kind of price movement seems a bit overheated to me.
I lightened up on all my position this month to raise cash with the exception of TDOC and DOCU. The most significant lightening was on ZM, since I sold the price has dropped 18%. I am planning on holding with current allocation percentage. I also lightened up on EXPI and TCNNF. They both have been on a tear, I do not plan on lightening any more. To clarify I think they both have bright future.
I want to chime in on DOCU and ZM with personal experience. My company this past year purchased docusign software subscription. In the last nine months I have “docusigned” more legal documents than in my entire life and in the last 2 months I “docusigned” more documents than the previous 7 months. That is the amount of “docusigning” is increasing. I do not see this trend slowing down but accelerating in the future.
Zoom software we never purchased, but I do a lot of Zoom calls for meetings, conferences, etc. that am sure others have a subscription. However I do not need Zoom software to operate my business. Personally I am not a fan of zooming (video conferencing), but maybe I am old school. I feel I can accomplish the same things with a phone call. This does not mean that ZM is not a good investment. Obviously a LOT of people are paying for the service. I just use it as an example of DOCU vs. ZM and trying to make a point that not all stay at home stocks are equal. I think the pandemic accelerated DOCU business, but that business is absolutely not going to go away after COVID does.
I brought two stocks to share with the board this year. The first one was in February and was Trulieve, which is a cannabis company so the post was removed. It is too bad because it is a good growth company (not just some garbage pot stock). The price was $10.90, currently $31.62. The second stock was EXPI https://discussion.fool.com/new-stock-review-expi-34627375.aspx?.. in September it closed that day $39.40 currently is at $63.12. I like the market cap values of both companies which are around 4.5B. I think they both have a bit of a longer runway for future stock price increase.
CRWD strike the most owned and covered stock on the board. It is obvious that CRWD services are in demand and it seems to be one of the best security software solutions out there. It is my number one holding, I just wonder what is the TAM. What Market Cap size can it grow into reasonably?
I think Market Cap is important. Most describe small cap stocks being less than 2B, mid cap 2-10B, over 10B is considered large cap stock, mega cap being over 200B. Most of the stocks followed on this board went from mid to large cap this past year. How many of these companies do you feel will be mega cap stocks? I do not know, but I think it is something the group should be thinking about.
My portfolio is at nine positions currently. Historically my portfolio is between 5-9 positions. Below is number of positions held at end of each month.
Jan -6, Feb -7, Mar -5, Apr -5, May -6, June -5, July -6, Aug -6 (with very, very small position in AYX for 7), Sept -8 (with very, very small position in AYX for 9), Oct-8, Nov-7, Dec-9
New positions 2020
May-ZM (Previously owned)
Aug-TCNNF (2nd time), ETSY, NET
Sept-EXPI, TDOC (previously owned LVGO)
Oct-DOCU (Previously owned)
Sold positions 2020
Mar-TCNNF, ZS, ZM
Aug-ETSY, AYX (except very small position)
Monthly reviews 2020
Started the year with
CRWD and ZM; Exited ZM in March at $109 and bought back in May $135, $160, $169.
My portfolio on 12/31/20 was:
AYX 27.0% 1/1/20-$101.48 12/31/20-$121.79 CRWD 16.4% 1/1/20-$50.03 12/31/20-$211.82 ZM 15.6% 1/1/20-$68.80 12/31/20-$337.32 MDB 14.8% 1/1/20-$130.18 12/31/20-$359.04 ZS 8.7% 1/1/20-$46.87 12/31/20-$199.71 CASH 1.3%
If I would have just left my investments the same all year with no trading my YTD would have been 175% YTD or -18.9% less than actual YTD portfolio return.
As always any suggestions or questions on portfolio structure feel free to email me. Any questions on why I like or dislike certain companies post it to the board with exception of TCNNF (just email me on that one).
I want to thank all of you who contribute to the boards. There is no doubt in my mind that you all have added insight and gain to my portfolio. I am humbled to be able to invest along side of such great investors. This board is truly special.
I selfishly write these reviews for my own record keeping but I hope there is something of value for others as well. I know I am not the best written communicator. I always struggled with english in school. Over the years I have written some annual reviews which I tried to convey to new investors some of the mistakes and successes I learned over the years. They can be found here:
I love seeing so many people speak of giving back after such a successful year. I also have been purposeful in giving to different organizations. God is the giver of all things, we are just stewards. God has given us all talents, to use to help each other. I think it is great for our group to focus on the helping.
I hope everyone has a great and prosperous 2021!