These patent issues tend to be highly arcane and outcomes tend to be unpredictable. Just fyi-
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3180296-celgenes-revlimid-pa…
sw
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The polymorph patent that was revoked in Europe last week only shifted protection expiration from 2024 to 2022. This was my understanding anyway. This article suggestions that Revlimid protection could be at risk immediately if the linchpin patent is also invalidated. This is a very disturbing thought if you are a CELG shareholder.
Chris
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The polymorph patent that was revoked in Europe last week only shifted protection expiration from 2024 to 2022. This was my understanding anyway. This article suggestions that Revlimid protection could be at risk immediately if the linchpin patent is also invalidated. This is a very disturbing thought if you are a CELG shareholder.
Hi Chris, Since CELG is up $1.00 today, I’m guessing the market doesn’t feel that that’s much of a realistic risk. In fact it’s up five or six dollars since the European decision. (It was down to $107-108, as I seem to remember). On the other hand, It would make sense to trim your position a bit, if you feel uncomfortable and that that would be prudent.
Saul
Revlimid protection could be at risk immediately if the linchpin patent is also invalidated.
Chris and Saul, how much barrier to entry do you think there is around distribution of Revlimid? It seems like CELG has had to establish very strong controls through its REMS distribution program. Here’s what CELG says about it on their website:
To avoid embryo-fetal exposure, Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) programs are mandatory for the Celgene products THALOMID® (thalidomide), REVLIMID® (lenalidomide) and POMALYST® (pomalidomide). The THALOMID REMS™ program (formerly known as the S.T.E.P.S.® program), REVLIMID REMS™ program (formerly known as the RevAssist® program) and POMALYST REMS™ program require prescribers and pharmacists to be certified and patients to enroll and comply with all of the requirements for each program.
https://www.celgeneriskmanagement.com/REMSPortal/rems/portal…
I don’t know enough about the industry to say whether tightly controlled distribution like this is par for the course, or whether it represents some additional barrier to entry.
Neil
Long CELG
how much barrier to entry do you think there is around distribution of Revlimid?
Protection is in the patents. If there is not patent protection, a biosimilar (this would be like a generic) could be developed and marketed. It would still need to be approved but the process would be fairly straightforward and fast. If CELG loses patent protection before 2022 then the stock price will tank. I am not experienced in patent law and have no way to handicap the chance that their linchpin patent would be invalidated.
Chris
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Hi Stillwater,
I read the same article. Did you read the comments? The author’s dire warnings were pretty much ripped up. Also, the article was paid for by an revealed source. It’s likely that this is just an effort to pump a short on CELG without any real merit.
I did read the comments.
Over many years I have been involved in and witnessed many patent challenges. I was a witness in two law cases where J&J patents were challenged. JNJ lost both of those. The outcomes in these situations are often quite unpredictable. I would not totally dismiss the risk here in view of the very large importance of this compound to Celgene.
In investing one must weigh many risks, it is part of the deal.
sw