"Right sizing" the workforce

Since employment costs are a major part of any business’ operating costs the concept of “right sizing” is probably older than the pyramids. It’s also a classic part of the cycle that leads to and propagates recessions.

https://www.wsj.com/business/has-the-era-of-the-mega-layoff-arrived-928f061d?mod=hp_lead_pos3

Has the Era of the Mega-Layoff Arrived?

From Snap to Block to Amazon, a new template for ‘right sizing’ the workforce is spreading through C-suites—and other companies are taking note

By Chip Cutter, The Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2026

  • Companies are increasingly conducting large-scale layoffs, receiving investor praise and stock bumps, a shift from past perceptions.

  • Snap is laying off 16% of its staff, and Block eliminated 40% of its workforce, with both companies’ shares rising after the announcements.

  • The willingness to make large cuts reflects a view that big teams impede progress.

So far, the rationale for the cuts appears to be driven less by AI’s abilities to replace workers outright than by the soaring costs of building the technology, according to executives. And many companies, particularly in tech, continue to course-correct after overhiring during the pandemic.

Regardless of the why, executives said, companies are finding a way to slash jobs and are being rewarded by investors for it…

Among white-collar workers in tech and elsewhere, the angst is spreading. Many college-educated workers are finding it increasingly difficult to find new work after losing a job. Over the past 12 months, unemployment among college-educated workers 34 and under has converged—and now surpassed—the 4.1% rate for people with two-year associate degrees…

Meanwhile, apart from fields such as healthcare, hiring in other parts of the economy has largely stalled. …[end quote]

The economist Peter Turchin calls unemployed educated people “excess elites.” There may not be enough to directly impact the economy but their discontent can have outsized political/ social impacts.

Wendy

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All of the above applies only to Information technology “asset light” businesses.

These companies are the product, the development and the business as usual support.

The product features and value are determined by user and B2B customer trends/use.

Development - (IN Question for this topic) is heavily influenced by strategy, approach, efficiency and business need. ← topic for layoffs today given “AI” strategy implications

BAU support - Keep the lights on, help desk (all levels), etc. This is in focus as well since reliability, availability and support can all be made more efficient (i.e. less humans). ← topic for layoffs today given “AI” strategy implications.

Hiring is secondary and surgical only. When trends are to make efficient (prove AI value), management is not likely to explore alternatives as these do not align with current strategy.

EXCEPTION - product demands by users or monetization by B2B consumers may drive complementary changes in staff. (again, heavily influenced by AI efficiency makers) I suspect, hiring for these changes would not be approved when there are already “too many capable people on staff” to support.

Meanwhile, staff in role are demanded upon to

“go faster”
“use the tools”
“be smarter”
“execute in an AND world”

I am in the heavy industrial space and see it here, too. Fortunately for the swaths of team members in my business, they cannot be easily replaced until CAPEX and old school automation programs are approved. (They are, but the cycle times are MUCH longer so the change is not felt in comparison to the AI cultural shift)

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