Roku collapsing the Shopify funnel for merchants

Roku up 13%

How is TDD competing or does this include TDD? My saved link to an article on TDD cooperation with Roku on 3/1/2020 was deleted when TMF changed formats.

This is some of what Roku announcement said today:
Upon seeing an ad for a Shopify merchant, viewers can simply press OK on their Roku remote to learn more about the product and purchase it directly from their TV. They will be able to check out with Roku Pay, Roku’s payments platform, and return to their streaming experience once they have completed the purchase. Purchasers will receive email confirmation of their order directly from the merchant once the transaction has been processed.

Very interesting, IMO

Jason

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Kinda OT question on this…? I am confused as to why Roku is up 13% but SHOP is only up about 2% this morning. I am guessing the idea is they can generate more ad revenue, but the idea that SHOP is getting this embedded would seem to be MORE important from the long run?
I had ROKU for a little while, but once it grew to become a TV company I wasn’t interested anymore.

As for TTD, I would assume they still the middlemen for getting the ad sold to Roku?

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TTD is up 7.65% so far today. It’s a green day for my portfolio overall, but this is far outpacing the others, and I wondered why. The market obviously sees the news as good for TTD as well.

I’m guessing the thinking is that if this is happening with Shopify and Roku, it will happen on all streaming platforms eventually. See a product on your streaming device and hit a “buy” button on your remote. And that broader adoption will be one more thing that helps TTD soar.

JabbokRiver
14.72% in TTD

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“Lurker” here but figured I’d provide some clarity as I work in the industry and have experience with both companies (more recently with Roku than TTD). This is probably way more info than needed so feel free to stop reading after the next paragraph unless you’re really interested in these two stocks.

You will not be able to buy this ad unit on Roku through TTD. The Shopify integration is only possible because Roku has 1st Party data with email & payment info, which TTD does not have and Roku would never share. Roku has had an integration with Walmart eCommerce for some time and I’m sure they would love to work something out with Amazon if it weren’t for Fire TV still existing. TTD may figure out a tech solution for embedding a purchase experience within an ad unit on CTV, but it wouldn’t be as simple. This type of thing already exists within social ad units and others, but it’s not much different than clicking/tapping out to a website due to the payment info constraints.

Roku’s play is premium CTV with innovative ad units and pristine 1st party data vs. 3rd party data targeting which is far from perfect (that’s a rabbit hole I won’t go down). They are a TV OS which gives them a nearly infinite canvas to monetize, they have The Roku Channel as a sort of middle-ground to capture cord cutters and subscription-fatigued people at once, and they also have their OneView DSP to provide added scale off-platform. It’s pretty compelling in an optimistic environment. But it is in a weird “untrusted” middle ground between old-school media (which many large brands still very much believe in) and pure-play programmatic digital media (like TTD, which most brands believe in and some ONLY believe in), which has affected their growth quite a bit, obviously, through the downturn. (I don’t really read too much into all the smart-home products btw, they seem to be more market tests than a big bet).

TTD is essentially an efficiency play, which is why they have been resilient in the face of the recession fear that is causing advertising & media budgets to get slashed. So while they don’t have access to the type of “premium ad units” that Roku can offer, CMOs see more targeted reach per dollar from TTD and move money there while they reduce budgets overall. It’s kind like IOT, except importantly, it’s not outcomes-based. The media still has to perform, and that is never remotely guaranteed. With the transition to CTV on one side and the efficiency story on the other, it’s hard to see any scenario where it isn’t growing, for years and years to come.

That being said, as recession fear abates, I would expect TTD growth to remain more consistent rather than accelerate greatly, and Roku will see a bigger rebound in terms of topline growth. Of course I can’t predict the future, but optimism typically leads marketing execs to want to invest in the future and new, bigger bets, which should lend more to premium vs. efficient.

P.S. both stocks on my watch list but my portfolio is concentrated on other sectors. I find sometimes my “insider” experiences cloud my judgement.

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Roku up 29% today after earnings show a pick-up in earnings. This bodes well for TTD.

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It’s been about a year since this post and as predicted, TTD has pretty much cruised. Roku shares, however, saw some heights shortly after this post and even more so in late Nov/early Dec…since then however, Roku shares are down about 50%! @prust04, from an industry insider’s perspective, what’s been happening with Roku over the last year or so?

I ask because the numbers don’t look terrible anymore. There’s still some revenue growth there, and don’t look now, but FCF in the last 12 months is $427m. So they’re trading at less than 20x. What’s the catch?

Bear

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I sold out of ROKU a long time ago at a good near peak price 2021. There were three drivers; growth in connect TV stream hours, growth in customers, and growth in ARPU. I have not looked in depth at their recent numbers. My wife still owns a few shares from her past employment there. So I need to deep dive as the valuation looks good right now. But I have stayed clear because their ARPU has not been growing and international expansion is always disappointing. Each country has their own regulations and advertising temperament. Just too hard to figure out. Remember on your valuation to remove the platform sales as these are give away products. Customer growth has improved, but is this US or international? International is the tough nut to crack.

-zane

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@PaulWBryant appreciate the prompt.

I’ve been impressed with the moves TTD has been making in premium partnerships like Netflix. This is exactly the type of catalyst I was looking for but I made an overall decision to stay out of advertising stocks. As sports shifts to the big streaming apps, I’d look for TTD to sign deals to specifically distribute sports inventory as well. That would be pretty disruptive.

Roku seems like they still haven’t put their foot on the gas pedal to capture their potential. While Tubi, Pluto and many of the paid streaming apps go aggressively after users, Roku has been satisfied with playing behind the scenes and not grabbing the opportunity to be the top operating system for the TV. But they’ve been making some changes to the OS, and recently signed a deal with the MLB - both of these will open up new revenue streams. I’d want to see them take bigger swings from a brand building and user acquisition perspective, before reconsidering them. That will help them get bigger budgets approved by clients and give them more pricing power. Right now they have issues with both…they are not seen as a premium partner OR an efficiency partner, so they’re in a funky middle ground.

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