May/2021 update 2021 Performance: YTD Jan 5.45% Feb 7.37% Mar -3.2% Apr -5.0% May -3.09% Roku (roku) 19.10% Pintrest (pins)* 15.93% DataDog (ddog) 14.15% Crowdstrike (crwd) 13.11% Zoom (zm) 6.52% Teladoc (tdoc) 5.98% Snowflake (snow) 4.68% Stone (stne) 4.67% ZoomInfo (ZI) 3.28% Upstart Holdings (upst) 2.33% Stem Energy (stem) 0.90% Transmedics (tmdx) 1.01% CASH 8.33%
TDOC: This is what I wrote after I reviewed the earnings call.
Q1/2021, organic revenue growth of 69% for legacy Teladoc . 2019 Yoy Growth was 33%. 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q1 growth is aprox 41% on average. So there is an evidence of growth increasing even as the numbers become larger. Visits, another key metric was up 50% YoY despite a weak flu season.
Significant strength in noninfectious disease and specialty visits with mental health volumes, in particular, driving growth in both B2B and DTC channels. Specialty growth is acting as a gateway into multi-service usage. 40% of there members have access to more than one product. So we should continue to watch this number grow. Chronic care increased 66% YoY. 62K new chronic members added in Q1. 15% of Chronic care patients are enrolled in more than one program compared to 5% a year ago.
Opportunity, 40% of US adults live with more than one chronic condition (Diabetes, Hypertension, mental health). (40% 0f 150 = 60MM). Enrollment rates are consistent with Livongo’s performance in recent years
None of this struck to me as a company slowing down. Infact the whole person proactive and reactive cases make them one of a kind and gives them edge over other tele medicine providers. There is a large untapped market and competition is increasing. Despite that, I see them as one of the winners. I added some on the way down. This has been my worst performer year to date and it hurts so take what I say about them with a grain of salt
ROKU, DDOG, PINS and CRWD are my high conviction stocks. While ROKU and CRWD positions remain unchanged, I added to my positions in PINS and DDOG. ROKU delivered what I can only describe as excellent results but I already have more than full position in it. I have added to my positions in PINS and DDOG. Bear describes it as a fat pitch. I cant agree more. Its a picks and shovels play for the cloud. I expect many years of solid growth. I understand why some investors are skittish about PINS. After all MAUs (eye balls) are what companies need if they depend on advertisements. So I am not happy either when they say they might lose some US MAUs given US users have the highest ARPUs. However, it may be short lived. Also the impact of Intl MAU and ARPU is significant. So my belief is whatever US revenue they lose, they will more than make in Intl revenues. I bought some 2023 options for PINS.
SNOW would be amongst my highest conviction stocks as well if it were not valued so dearly. I did buy as the price dipped and bought some more below 200.
ZM: Bought some near 300. We all know the ZM story. Its reporting on Tues and I am cautiously optimistic. I do not expect miracles. It will be hard to triple from here in the next few years, no doubt. I would be happy if it remains a solid performer.
TMDX: Bought back small position in TMDX. I really like their tech and to be honest was tired of loosing money on options. Will keep what I got till the FDA decision on heart DBD.
ZI is a recent position, bought last month and UPST just recently. UPST results were fantastic and is growing very fast. ZI is a 50% grower but with better operating metrics than any other company. I am happy with what I have for now but as I learn more, these would be where I might add more.
Happy investing everyone. Till next time.