China and India together have about 1/3 of the world’s population. Neither has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both countries abstained on a United Nations resolution condemning the Russian invasion. China recently signed a friendship pact with Russia.
**Putin Sees a West United on Ukraine — But What About China and India?**
**Where the two most populous countries land will be critical for the Russian president and his country’s economy**
**by Gerald S. Feib, The Wall Street Journal, 3/2/2022**
**China will provide Mr. Putin economic relief: “Every bit of gas he doesn’t sell to Europe the Chinese will buy.” Beijing might provide help for a Russian tech sector cut off from the West....**
**India is, if anything, even more conflicted. Russia is a traditional ally and supplier of the majority of its military equipment. Yet it has a famously tense relationship, and shares a disputed and occasionally violent border, with China. India is trapped, and may bob and weave without joining the Western response....** [end quote]
The unified Great Power alliance of the U.S. and EU is being challenged by a potential new Great Power alliance of China and Russia. (India has little power and would probably remain neutral.)
The unified Great Power alliance of the U.S. and EU is being challenged by a potential new Great Power alliance of China and Russia.
Is that joke? China would never have any meaningful alliance with Russia under Putin. In fact China would like Russia to wither and die. Then they can take back all the territory that Russia stole from them and also be able to expand into Siberia. China does not need weak and the corrupt Russian system for anything.
Beijing might provide help for a Russian tech sector cut off from the West…
The NYT has a very good article on why big tech should go or stay in Russia. So far big tech is staying. It is the only access to outside news for many Russians. It counters propaganda. The activists would be made to look like they were listening to American tech puppets if big tech pulls out.
But there were of course reasons to leave Russia. It was a balanced analysis.
My thinking as well. China is just waiting for Putin’s foolishness to be bad timing for Russia.
I would not worry about India, they are not aligned with either power and their worry is Pakistan.
If China buys Russian oil, doesn’t that make more “other” oil available to the rest of the world - solving supply issue somewhat? (Probably oversimplistic when it comes to natural gas in Europe)
Oil is not quite a fungible commodity, refineries are designed for the various kinds of crude, viscosity, impurities, etc. Venezuelan is heavy and sour (high sulphur), and extra heavy (bitumen, tar). The gas content also varies. High gas content crude may not be shipped by surface transport, danger of explosion.
If China buys Russian oil, doesn’t that make more “other” oil available to the rest of the world
All the existing Russian pipelines feed the European market. Gas and oil pipes to China are planned, following the agreement between Putin and Xi last year, but they are probably years from completion.
Map at the link.