The Ukraine war is finally catching up with the Russian economy. The unemployment rate is low, not surprising as the war has driven men out of the country or into the army:
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FWIW, that’s down 1.8% YoY.
The head of Sweden’s intelligence community, Thomas Nilsson, said this week that unless oil prices remain high for another year they won’t solve Russia’s underlying economic problems.
Russian economy is faltering despite oil windfall, Sweden warns
https://www.ft.com/content/04a9d05d-2502-44d4-b7e0-041aaa4f83cd?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service, told the FT that Russia would need prices for Urals crude, its main blend of oil, to remain above $100 a barrel for a year to close its budget deficit, and for significantly longer than that to smooth over its other economic problems…
Sweden had intelligence indicating that Russia was systematically manipulating data to fool Ukraine’s western allies into believing its economy had withstood the strain of its lavish war spending and western sanctions, Nilsson said…
Nilsson said the real situation was even worse and the Russian central bank was underestimating inflation, which it believed was closer to the 15 per cent key interest rate than the official 5.86 per cent.
DB2
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Global oil stocks could fall by 900 million bbl even if ceasefire is extended
$70
Crude Oil Price Today | WTI OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider))&op=1
$88.79 today
Looks like 3-4 years of higher oil prices.
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The U.S. Treasury Department on Friday extended its pause on sanctions on Russian oil shipments to ease shortages from the Iran war, days after Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out such a move.
The so-called general license means U.S. sanctions will not apply for 30 days on deliveries of Russian oil that has been loaded on tankers as of Friday.
Anyone here believe world oil supply will be solved in 30 days?
It seems that it took a war launched by the USA on Iran in order to make Iranian oil legal again.
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I think the problem has been solved in favor of Trump’s allies, Vladimir Putin and the oil companies.
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The US n its allies imposed FINANCIAL sanctions. These are now “lifted”.
Ukraine is imposing KINETIC sanctions, interrupting Russia’s ability to physically refine and transport (pipelines n railroad n Shadow fleet shipping) the oil. Supposedly now interrupting 40-60% of Russian oil shipments.
US, EU, Baltics, and a few others are stopping and impounding shadow fleet ships, in response to Russia’s “gray zone” warfare tactics.
This action might be called IMPOUNDMENT sanctions?
Even though the financial sanctions have been lifted, the overall monetary gains are still low… And Russia is having trouble funding its SMO.
Reportedly.
Russia oil has been FINANCIAL sanctioned since 2014 after the invasion of Crimea (?).
Iranian oil has been FINANCIAL sanctioned since 1995, (a response to Iran’s support for terrorism and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. Perplexity).
The mines n drones are kinetic sanctions.
The ships are blockade sanctions?
FWIW
ralph