Performance recap
- 2021: -36%
- 2022: -76% (Found Saul’s amazing board Jan 2022, started this style of investing in May 2022)
- 2023: +80%
- 2024: +104%
- 2025 through May: +34%
Current portfolio holdings:
- HIMS - 24%
- SEZL - 14%
- DCTH - 9%
- TARS - 9%
- NVDA - 8%
- CRDO - 8%
- ALAB - 7%
- RDDT - 6%
- KRYS - 5%
- UPST - 4%
- BSEM - 4%
- GAMB - 4%
- TGTX - 3%
- CRMD - 3%
Portfolio is currently 108% long and has 14 positions.
Changes this month
-
Sold:
- TQQQ -
- Needed to raise some cash for taking new positions. This round of TQQQ investments added about 2-3% to my portfolio on leverage. And this is usually how I like using TQQQ. Markets give 2-3 chances a year to jump in with a leveraged index position. The whole bet is we are going to get back to all time highs. And the key is to continue to accumulate all through the dip, starting around 10% index dip. It has worked for me so far.
- INOD -
- I wasn’t a fan of their results this quarter and definitely did not like the no guide raise. It really tumbled on my methodology score as well. So multiple reasons to sell.
- ANIP -
- Forward growth is a concern and I had better choices to invest my capital.
- MYO -
- Did not like the quarterly results and the step back in FCF. Slipped on methodology score, so I am out.
- TQQQ -
-
Bought:
- CRMD -
- Found this new business and started off at number one on methodology score lol. So had to get a starter position. Absolutely a bad timing if you look at the chart. But all my numbers check out and it still looks cheap to me on ntm numbers. So I have a foot in the door.
- TGTX -
- High quality business and with this market pullback opportunity, I took a stab again. I really want to see them close the gap on profitability. Otherwise, I have no complaints on this one.
- RDDT -
- It was a mistake selling out of Reddit. The quarterly results were pretty good and I got right back in. Fortunately, the stock hasn’t taken off yet. Forward growth concerns related to google search aside, I don’t see any issues with this one so far.
- CRMD -
-
Bumped:
- DCTH -
- Very lucky entry right before earnings and earnings were very good. So gonna keep riding this one.
- TARS -
- This has gone sideways for a while now. I expect a blast off soon as long as they keep coming in with great results. So far so good.
- KRYS -
- I am not sure about this one. I did not like the miss but they still putting up great profitability numbers. Also, forward growth 40%+ so hoping it turns the ship by next quarter’s report. But my confidence is shaky on this one.
- DCTH -
My methodology current scores:
All bars marked in green - I own.
Current Tiers:
Tier 1: (12% allocation)
- DCTH, NVDA, SEZL, RDDT, HIMS
Tier 2: (8% allocation)
- CRMD, CRDO, ALAB, TARS, UPST
Tier 3: (4% allocation)
- TGTX, KRYS, GAMB, BSEM
Why I own what I own:
- HIMS - 24%
- HIMS had a good earnings report. I wasn’t happy with the lack of guidance raise and a step back in profitability. But it still has a lot going for it. Forward growth should be still 40%+ and they should get to about 15% fcf in the next 12 months.
- I wrote last moth HIMS should get about 8-10 P/S multiple and currently its almost at the low end of that range. Personally, I still believe it has another double in it. But it has come too far too fast. And with the historic volatility of this stock, it’s a good candidate to trim and add around the core position. So that’s how I have been playing it.
- SEZL - 14%
- SEZL crushed earnings again. This thing got to second position size purely based on performance. Another volatile stock, so I will wait for the next cut in half situation to add to my position. Based on last earnings report, this looks solid Tier 1 position.
- DCTH - 9%
- Delcath had steller earnings and went FCF+. They raised guidance by 13% and is still looking at extremely high ntm growth rate. If they can continue to get more profitable, I think this has a lot of room to run. They are at 10% FCF and has 84% margins, so there is operational efficiency room here.
- TARS - 9%
- TARS had pretty good earnings but the stock did not move an inch. So this is starting to look like a coiling action. A couple of more beat and raises and I believe this should take off. This had a nice 10% guidance raise too, so pretty happy with my position.
- NVDA - 8%
- I thought NVDA had great earnings. The AI cycle is alive and well. I intend to make this a 10 to 15% position size long term. Will add on any opportunity the market provides.
- CRDO -8%
- Another business in the AI/LLM optimization play. Similar offerings to ALAB but their recent quarter results were stellar. Scored very high in my methodology and with the DeepSeek new opportunity, I got in. Hoping to see great execution from this business going forward.
- The huge concentration in one client is a risk. Since they are growing at such a fast pace, I am giving them a little rope. I will be closely following their US client base - would like to see them make some headwind in the next quarter.
- Waiting for their earnings report which I expect to be good based on what other players have done in this cycle.
- ALAB - 7%
- ALAB had good results this quarter but I wasn’t a fan of the raise. It’s not bad but not great for a business that is riding a 30+ P/S ratio. So for now, I am staying put but will adjust if I see softness in the next quarterly earnings. The valuation is also getting quite rich in the short term imho.
- RDDT - 6%
- I really liked Reddit’s earnings. But the stock is taking it’s own sweet time to turn. What really impressed me was their 32% FCF quarter. That opens up a new multiple range for this business. If this can get to 40% FCF, then it will surely get a higher multiple and be one of those stocks that perpetually looks expensive. Key is 40%+ growth rate, which they have now.
- KRYS - 5%
- KRYS is executing poorly so far. But the business is very profitable. This is why I am still in it. But my conviction level is very low right now. I really don’t like businesses that don’t raise guidance. I think that is a pre-cursor for earnings misses to follow and then markets starts reacting with downside gaps. I would like to stick around for one more quarter to see if they can right the ship.
- UPST - 4%
- UPST had a great quarter and did a gap up to almost $90 a share. Due to march madness, it is down to half that value now. I feel Upstart has turned the corner and is starting to accelerate revenue growth. The guidance this quarter was extremely impressive as it raised yearly guide by 20%. That’s rare. So, I continue to build my position in this business.
- The latest quarterly results were good but not great. This is the biggest drag on my portfolio currently. I am not going to add anymore to this position. Need to see a couple of nice quarters from this business. If they have truly turned the corner, the beat and raises should come regularly now.
- BSEM - 4%
- This nasdaq listing is taking forever. I am starting to lose patience with this one. On top of that, since the LCD was going to expire in April, a lot of clients started to pull away from their products and they missed earnings pretty badly. They mentioned in the earnings call things have rebounded well but the LCD extension is only till Dec 2025. Makes me wonder, is this going to repeat again around late Q4.
- This is a pure FOMO play now. If the LCD gets pushed again for a year more, I think this doubles in a week. And same with if they make more penetration in getting new business. And same again with Nasdaq listing.
- All this to say, I am a little clueless on this one but this will probably get chopped if I find another CRMD!
- GAMB - 4%
- Gambling had ok earnings. Did not raise guide, so I am not happy. But it’s cheap and quite profitable. So for now I am staying in. I think if markets go on a sustained run, this will benefit quite well.
- TGTX - 3%
- TGTX got a nice haircut in this drawdown and I took advantage to get back into this business. The revenue growth and guidance game is pretty good. Just need this to get to profitability, currently struggling a bit in this respect. But I think the growth curve is impressive, so I got back in.
- CRMD - 3%
- This business has some stellar numbers. ntm 50%+ growth with 50%fcf this quarter. I think one or two more of these kinds of quarters and it’s multiple should double. So for now took a starter position. If it gets halved, will add ore.
Wrapping Up
Nasdaq had a killer +9% month and my portfolio responded too with a +29% showing. So easily one of the best months I have had in the markets. This market has moved too far too fast, so expecting a muted June. I am pretty confident in my Tier 1 and Tier 2 holdings. Tier 3 is mostly FOMO. So I need to adjust accordingly. In case of any turbulence, Tier 3 is gonna get cut fast and then I will also reduce my oversized HIMS position. Let’s see how June unfolds.
Always a privilege to post on this board. Thank you for reading. Cheers!
Note: My X account @ryshab was compromised. I no longer have access to that account. My new id is @RajaRoyTalks